Morning Express ——疫情全球蔓延，避险仍然是重头戏

Focus of foreign exchange market
Trading preference – Relatively optimistic about Europe this week/Beauty（EURUSD）。上周欧元因经济数据疲软叠加套利交易影响出现了较大跌幅，但随着上周五的制造业PMI好于预期，欧元也因此上涨。另外，随着新兴市场下跌，套利交易空头回补提振了欧元。其实我们一直在近期提示大家欧元（EURUSD)跌幅过大，疲弱的经济基本已经反映在预期之内，因此，我们认为欧元将有技术性反弹。
英国方面，虽然近期英国经济数据整体向好。但目前市场的焦点在英国与欧盟的贸易谈判上，由于英欧双方关于贸易谈判的互不相让的激烈博弈给英镑带来沉重压力。因此，我们维持英镑为震荡偏弱的结构。
商品货币方面，广泛的避险情绪正对亚洲市场造成压力，商品货币延续跌势。另外，上周澳洲联储表示还有进一步降息的可能叠劳动力市场数据好坏参半，澳元持续走低。对此，我们早有提示澳/Beauty（AUDUSD）短期将承压。不过，短期来看澳元近期跌幅过大或有技术性反弹。
避险货币方面，虽然上周因日本经济数据疲弱，令原本曾是避险天堂的日元遭到无视，并导致了投资者大量涌入gold和美债进行避险。但随着投资者重新评估不断恶化的疫情对全球经济的影响，并引发股市大跌，避险货币走强，美元从当日低点回升。不过我们认为在现阶段日元上升空间也不会太大。
It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly hit new highs, and investors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.
MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. For details, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7Currency hedging portfolio
》。组合净值上周下跌1.14%This week's combination and as of Beijing time2month25day07:05The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
commodity market
Trading preference – 本周我们维持黄金（XAU）为震荡偏多结构和crude oil（WTI）为震荡偏弱结构。从目前的市场情绪来看，避险情绪依然主导市场。主要是出于对疫情的担忧加剧，使得美元和黄金都出现了不同程度上涨。另外，考虑到全球利率还处于较低水平金价仍有支撑。因此，我们将金价上调至1650-1685dollar/盎司，不过大家需注意正乖离过大以后的修正。
油价方面，虽然在此前有迹象表明中国疫情最坏的情况已过去，工厂复工情况改善也刺激了全球石油需求。但近期公共卫生事件在亚洲其他地方的风险上升，这令投资者再度担忧原油需求的短期冲击，除国内股市外，全球多地股市再度承压，风险偏好再度回落。因此，我们认为原油（WTI）短期反弹基本已经告一段落，中期偏弱。
stock market indexprospect
恒生指数方面，市场正评估新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济的影响及各大央行的政策反应，并关注企业财报，恒指周一低开低走，盘中一度跌超400点，尾盘持续走低，截至收盘，恒指收跌1.79%。
盘面上，体育用品、航空板块、电池、石油股下行，黄金贵金属、电讯设备、5G概念板块逆势上涨。考虑到全球市场的疲弱，建议近期投资者以防御为主。技术形态上，28000短期还将面临压力。
abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the net short position of the euro is at its peak, and the growth rate of net short positions has slowed down. Therefore, we believe that there will be capital inflows and support a rebound. In addition, the net long positions of the pound and Swiss franc are also at their peak.
XAU可兑现部分盈利。
Europe/美可继续持有。
Target price in Europe/to one's heart's content/Japanese pounds/to one's heart's content/Canada Australia/Meiniu/American Short Term1.0850111.001.28601.33000.66100.6350midline1.0900111.001.28601.33000.66500.6370
Target priceWTIXAUshort-term51.501,645midline51.501,640