MEX MARKETS Morning Express

Focus of foreign exchange market
Trading preference – Relatively optimistic about Europe this week/Beauty（EURUSD）和澳/Beauty（AUDUSD）。疲弱的经济也增强了欧洲央行持续宽松的预期，这似乎也正在助长以欧元为融资货币的套利交易活动。目前市场的焦点主要集中于今日德国的经济景气指数，以及本周稍晚公布的制造业PMI，以寻找欧元区经济状况的进一步线索。不过，我们认为市场存在着一定预期差，再叠加近期欧元（EURUSD)跌幅较大，本周或有技术性反弹。另外，本周MEX量化策略也确认买入欧元的观点。
英国方面，近日英国经济数据的整体向好，英镑获得了一定支撑。不过，周三和周五英国即将公布通胀和PMI数据，恐难有太好表现，因此，我们维持英镑为震荡结构。
商品货币方面，近期受到受肺炎疫情影响，商品货币走势较弱。不过，疫情已基本得到控制，减去了商品货币压力。本周，澳洲联储将发表货币政策声明，2月初该央行表示，货币政策可能在一段时间内保持宽松。对此,我们认为澳/Beauty（AUDUSD）短期将承压，下半周或有反弹。
It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEXThe momentum reversal quantification strategy has repeatedly hit new highs, and investors are2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.
MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. For details, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7Currency hedging portfolio
》。组合净值上周下跌1.14%This week's combination and as of Beijing time2month18day7:15The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
commodity market
Trading preference This week we will maintaingold（XAU）Andcrude oil（WTI）为震荡偏多结构。中国疫情虽已减轻，但仍然不明朗；另外全球利率基本还处于较低水平金价仍有支撑。预计金价仍将在1550-1600美元之间波动。油价方面，因有迹象表明疫情的最坏经济影响已经被消化，减轻了人们对原油需求自由落体的担忧；另外，OPEC+深化减产是给油价带来了一定支撑，上周油价有所上涨。所以，我们依然维持原油（WTI）是一个短期反弹，中期偏弱的结构。
stock market indexprospect
恒生指数方面，周一，香港股市平开后于早市盘初半小时走高，随后维持整理格局，收盘恒指涨0.52%。受此次新冠肺炎疫情影响香港旅游及零售业冲击较大。
盘面上，汽车、中资券商股、航空货运和物流等行业领涨。不过我们认为内房和家庭电器板块造好可持续关注，在线教育股和半导体股价位较高，存在一定风险，但长期依然可持续关注。
abstract
CFTC资金流数据显示，澳元、欧元净空头处极值，并且澳元的净空头已经开始收敛。因此，我们认为将有资金流入，并支持回涨。
WTI，澳/美可继续持有。
Target price in Europe/to one's heart's content/Japanese pounds/to one's heart's content/Canada Australia/Meiniu/American Short Term1.0800109.501.30001.32500.67000.6450midline1.0900109.501.30001.32500.67500.6450
Target priceWTIXAUshort-term51.501,570midline52.001,570
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