MEX GROUP:晨早快訊2020-01-14

Market Focus

[li]Trading preference– 本周我们继续维持看好欧/Beauty（EURUSD）看空镑/Beauty（GBPUSD）的偏好。战争阴云渐散，再加上中美签署第一阶段经贸协议，日元回撤幅度较大；虽然美/Day（USDJPY）突破109.5的压力位，不过向上空间不大。而近期镑/Beauty（GBPUSD）在超升以后也如期回落，虽然前期我们认为镑/美的估值合理区间大概在1.3000，但由于货币政策存在宽松预期，现下调镑/美至1.2900。后续还需继续关注英国能否顺利脱欧。除此以外，我们注意到CFTC资金流显示欧元的净空头依然处于极值并有资金流入，因此，我们维持欧元买入预期，投资者可参考MEX量化组合建立本周的欧元头寸。
[/li][li]商品货币方面，各大商品货币在近期超升以后，也期纷纷出现了回调，本周我们认为回撤基本已经到位。除此以外，上周我们一再吁投资者做多欧元兑其他货币，虽然在上周没有走出较好走势，但我们相信本周将会有好的预期。因此，我们维持继续买入欧元相对其他货币更为吸引；投资者可继续参考MEX量化组合每周调仓。It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEX动量反转量化策略也因此而创新高Investors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.
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[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEX量化策略年初至今已大幅跑赢目标For details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.组合净值上周下跌0.1%，This week's combination and as of Beijing time01month14day8:10The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
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abstract

[li]CFTC资金流数据显示，欧元净空头仍处极值，日元净空头也进一步收敛，我们认为将有资金流入，并支持回涨。另外，英镑及瑞郎净多头也达极值。
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[li]Europe/美、镑/美也走出预期走势，可持有。
[/li][li]中线维持看好商品。
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Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1150	109.50	1.3000	1.3050	0.6900	0.6650
midline	1.1170	109.00	1.2900	1.3100	0.6900	0.6600

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	59.00	1,540
midline	58.00	1,540