MBG Markets：黄金原油冲高回落，日元未见避险提振

Service industry in the United StatesPMI走强，美元兑日元上扬(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day59Individual points, closing up0.41%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于下行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to40-41Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above10日均线位置，下方支撑关注107.75。
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A12monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal valuenewspaper52.8，优于初值52.2水平。美国12monthMarkitService industryPMI数据创去年7月来新高。评论称，美国国内需求上升和出口复苏的迹象导致就业人数增加，庞大的服务部门的商业活动在去年年底加快了步伐。再加上制造业走出最近平静的迹象，调查数据显示，整体经济增长速度加快至去年4月以来的最快。昨日，美伊争锋成金融市场焦点，日元未见明显避险提振（相较之下，市场更倾向于选择贵金属、美元、日元等避险资产）。
　　
油市面临潜在“黑天鹅”，油价冲高回落(USOIL)
　　
Technical aspect:WTIcrude oil上一交易日收跌1.38%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，油价贴近布林下轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFOnline threadingDEA构金叉，阳柱势能较小，势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to65-66Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above64.70Below support attention5日均线位置。
　　
Fundamentals:因美伊对抗，美、布两油昨日开盘强势上涨，两油涨幅一度扩大至3%。但随后便一路下跌，最终由涨转跌。投行Evercore：目前全球石油投资者正在密切关注美伊局势，最主要的三大看点分别是：①特朗普通过社交媒体工具来通知国会对伊朗采取军事行动；②伊拉克国会投票决定让美国撤军；③伊朗暂停履行2015年伊核协议的承诺与义务。此外，油市“黑天鹅”事件可能会是美国政府对国内页岩油产业作出某种形式的支持，并以此降低油市供应短缺的风险。
　　
火药桶不断添柴，gold一飞冲天(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:黄金上一交易日震幅达289Individual points, closing up0.61%。今日亚盘黄金跳空高开，5分钟涨幅超1%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，金价于布林上轨上方极端超买位置运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，金价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to89-90Frontline operation, with a smaller operating slope tending to rise. Attention to resistance above1588Below support attention5日均线位置。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收跌1.21%, closing on13.85； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)股价上一交易日收跌0.97%, closing on18.39。 The world's largest goldETFFund: United StatesSPDR Gold Trustto1month7日增持0.88吨黄金，净持仓量增至896.18吨。瑞士宝盛分析师：近日的美伊争端有加剧的迹象，但停留在政治领域，比如来回指责和威胁，金价更多反映的是对美伊争端发展的预期。如果没有发生进一步的冲突，金价将因部分买家的获利回吐而难逃下跌。
　　
　　
　　
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