近期市场详情——黄金回调超升

Market Focus

[li]Trading preference – 本周我们继续维持看好欧/Beauty（EURUSD）和看弱镑/Beauty（GBPUSD）的偏好。并认为德国工业产出和欧元区零售销售数据将给予欧元一定支撑。Pound/Beauty（GBPUSD）在超升以后也如我们预期出现了回落，估值合理区间我们认为大概在1.3000Near.dollar(DXY)方面，上周也如我们预期在下半周出现了一定程度回升。不过从美联储的表态来看通胀依然不及预期，上周ISMmanufacturingPMI也弱于预期。因此，我们认为本周12月非农数据恐难有太大表现，美元(DXY)整体依然为一个偏弱结构。除此以外，我们注意到CFTC资金流显示欧元的净空头依然处于极值并有资金流入，因此，我们维持欧元买入预期，投资者可参考MEX量化组合建立本周的欧元头寸。
[/li][li]商品市场方面，因美伊紧张局势升级，地缘局势和避险情绪急剧升温，WTIcrude oil、gold（XAUUSD）大涨。Gold（XAUUSD）是再度突破上周我们给大家设置的阻力区间1540-1555；就目前来看，周线指标背离，因此是有超升的嫌疑，但如果情绪面反应激烈可能还会冲高。WTI原油走势相对较稳，我们将目标上调至62。后续需持续关注事态发展。
[/li][li]In terms of commodity currency,虽然近期贸易乐观前景推高了澳元、纽元和加元等大宗商品货币，但在上周超升以后也如我们预期纷纷出现回调。本周我们认为加拿大就业人数恐不及预期，因此，看多美/Add（USDCAD）.除此以外，上周我们一再吁投资者做空商品货币，澳/beautiful (AUDUSD) Newtonian/beautiful (NZDUSD) ，两者分别下跌0.37%and0.52% 反映为有效，本周我们维持继续卖出英镑相对其他货币更为吸引；投资者可继续参考MEX量化组合每周调仓。It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEX动量反转量化策略因而再创新高Investors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.
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[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（α）For13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the yearFor details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.3%，This week's combination and as of Beijing time01month06day8:40The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
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abstract

[li]CFTC 资金流数据显示，欧元及日元净空头仍处极值，我们认为将有资金流入，并支持回涨。另外，英镑及瑞郎净多头也达极值。
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[li]beautiful/Japan and Australia/美、纽/美已走出预期走势，谨慎者可兑现部分利润。
[/li][li]XAU、WTI激进者可继续持有，谨慎者可兑现部分利润。
[/li][li]中线维持看好商品。
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Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1150	108.00	1.3100	1.2950	0.6950	0.6650
midline	1.1200	108.50	1.3000	1.3000	0.6950	0.6650

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	65.00	1,580
midline	65.00	1,560

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