言娅粼：12.31Analysis of the Trend of Gold and Crude Oil

　　言娅粼：12.31goldcrude oilTrend analysis
　　
　　对于趋势投资者来说：市场都是正确的，就看你能否把握。对于价值投资者来说：市场都是错误的，就看你能否发现。
　　
　　Gold trend analysis:
　　
Monday(12month30day)亚洲时段，美元指数延续上周跌势，欧元和英镑的上涨令美元大幅承压，全球股市风险偏好高涨的背景下，美元的避险需求显著下降；金价则守在近两个月高位附近，美元的走弱和季节性需求继续给金价提供支撑；对美国经济增速放缓的担忧等原因继续打压美元表现，年底市场存在风险对冲交易、季节性需求和央行的买入给金价提供支撑，金价短线上涨动能仍存；不过，国际贸易局势的改善可能会限制金价的上行空间，需要予以警惕。
　　
　　现货黄金从技术面来看，今日目前高点在1515.57One line, low point at1510.89一线，整体波动不到5美金，亚欧盘走势都比较清淡，确实没有理想的进场点位，先以观望为主静候美盘。黄金从日线图上来看，布林带三轨持续发散，黄金运行在布林带上轨附近，均线依然是收金叉上扬，上方短期先关注1518-1520Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1506-1508一线支撑；黄金从四小时图上来看，布林带三轨持续上扬，黄金一直运行在布林带中轨和上轨之间，均线有收死叉迹象，短期存在一波回调，所以今日短线操作思路上言娅粼个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，黄金下方回调到1508-1510一线可以分批布局多单，上方反弹到1518-1520一线阻力不破位再考虑做空。
　　
　　Latest operating suggestions for gold:
　　
　　1Suggestions1518-1515Short on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1510-1508frontline;
　　
　　2Suggestions1508-1510Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1515-1517frontline;
　　
　　Analysis of crude oil trend:
　　
United StatesWTI原油周五收涨0.1%Report61.92dollar/桶，持稳于9month16日以来最高水平附近，连续第4周上涨，本周累计上涨2.1%。布伦特原油周五收涨0.4%Report68.16dollar/桶，也为连续第4周上涨，本周累计上涨2.6%。市场风险情绪的改善以及上周原油库存的大降，帮助油价延续涨势。原油市场，油价守在近三个半月高点附近，EIA原油库存大幅下降，钻井数据下降，都给油价提供支撑，但上涨动能有所减弱。
　　
　　美原油从技术面上来看，目前今日高点在61.9一线附近，低点在61.6一线附近，全天波幅不到0.3美金，波动有限确实也没有理想的进场点位，目前也只能继续观望等待美盘。原油从日线图上来看，布林带三轨持续上扬，原油一直运行在布林带中轨和上轨之间，均线依旧是收金叉上扬，原油上方短期需关注62.3One line of resistance, break through and continue to look up62.8-63.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below60.3First line support, break through and continue to look down60.0一线支撑；原油从四小时图上看，布林带三轨持续走平，价格也是运行在布林带中轨和上轨之间，均线收金叉上扬，短线有反弹需求，所以今日短线操作思路上言娅粼个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，原油下方回调到61.2-61.4一线建议可以分批布局多单，上方反弹到62.8-63.0一线阻力位不破位建议可以跟进空单。
　　
　　Latest operating recommendations for crude oil:
　　
　　1Suggestions62.8-63.0Short on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target62.2-62.0frontline;
　　
　　2Suggestions61.2-61.4Long on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target62.0-62.2frontline;
　　
Investors can make judgments based on their basic market expectations, but even if their judgments are accurate, the timing and intensity of market trends caused by these expectations may still far exceed your expectations. This actually proves how difficult it is to accurately predict the market - even if it relies on a bunch of proven correct judgments. Because if market fluctuations are a big deal, then "fact" is just one of the ingredients.


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