兴业投资：库存下降&地缘局势紧张，油价震荡收高

兴业投资：库存下降&地缘局势紧张，油价震荡收高
2019year12month30day
国际油价上周五早盘一度受到俄罗斯能源部长有关将增产的言论打压走低，不过随着美国EIAcrude oil库存意外大幅下降和贝克休斯石油活跃钻井数减少，油价扭转了此前跌势，并小幅收高。此外，中美贸易乐观情绪及中东地缘紧张局势也为油价提供了支撑。美国截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil2monthfuturesIncome increase0.01USD, or0.02%Report61.66dollar/Bucket, highest reach61.94dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to61.22dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil2Monthly futures up0.19USD, or0.28%Report68.10dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray68.28dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to67.54dollar/Bucket.
据路透社报道，俄罗斯能源部长亚历山大?诺瓦克在接受采访时表示，俄罗斯将需要提高石油产量。OPEC+协议对市场有利，但不会永远持续下去。明年我们将讨论提高石油产量的问题。
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest data shows that as of12month20During the current week, US crude oil inventories decreased547.410000 barrels to4.414亿桶，市场预期减少143.310000 barrels;Reduced inventory of Cushing crude oil239.3Ten thousand barrels, continuous7周下滑，降至2018year11The lowest level since the beginning of the month;Reduced inventory of refined oil15.2Ten thousand barrels, continuous4周增长后再度录得下滑，市场预期增加61.110000 barrels;Increase in gasoline inventory196.3Ten thousand barrels, continuous7周增长，录得2019year3月以来的最高水平，市场预期增加152.2Ten thousand barrels. In addition, domestic crude oil production in the United States increased last week1010000 barrels to129010000 barrels/日。上周美国原油库存降幅远超预期，但原油产量和汽油库存均录得增长。EIA报告公布后，美油和布油回升。
此后，美国油服公司贝克休斯(Baker Hughes)The latest data shows that as of12month27During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased8Seat to677座，过去三周内首次录得下滑;Reduction in total number of active oil and gas drilling operations8Seat to805seat;天然气活跃钻井数持平于125座。数据公布后，美油和布油继续上行。
美国五角大楼周末表示，美国军方已在伊拉克和叙利亚对卡泰布真主党(Kataib Hezbollah)民兵组织实施了“防御性打击”。五角大楼说，他们的目标是伊朗支持的什叶派穆斯林民兵组织在伊拉克的三个据点和在叙利亚的两个据点。这些地点包括武器储存设施，以及该组织用来计划和执行对联军袭击的指挥和控制地点。美国指责这个组织周五在石油资源丰富的基尔库克附近发动了30多枚火箭袭击，炸死一名美国民用承包商雇员，炸伤四名美国军人和两名伊拉克安全部队人员。“为了回应真主党对伊拉克基地的多次袭击，美国军队进行了精确的防御打击。这将削弱卡泰布真主党今后对伊斯兰国联盟部队发动攻击的能力。”五角大楼首席发言人乔纳森?霍夫曼在一份声明中说。
此外，美元走软和围绕美中贸易协定的谨慎乐观情绪，也支撑了原油市场人气。周末期间，《南华早报》对第一阶段的交易持谨慎乐观态度，但又有一个难题有待解决。中国媒体表达了北京愿意遵守承诺的意愿，条件是美国必须严肃对待。和往常一样，这篇文章的语气听起来像是对华盛顿的警告，尽管美国总统唐纳德?特朗普为即将签署协议而欢呼雀跃。中美贸易协定的签署有望改善全球经济及原油需求前景。
USD Index
Since the opening of the US dollar index last Friday97.514水平持续下滑，触及96.877的十日新低。中美两国即将签署第一阶段协议的憧憬，加之美国国内经济形势较为悲观，似乎是美元近期下跌的原因之一。
此外，美国国债收益率下滑，也降低了美元吸引力。
benchmark10年期美国国债收益率上周五尾盘跌至1.872%，30The yield of one-year US treasury bond bonds fell to2.308%。债券收益率与债券价格成反比。此外，备受关注的两年期和10年期国债收益率差收窄至约26个基点。反向收益率曲线被认为是衰退指标。上周，两年期和10年期国债收益率之间的息差升至2018year10月以来的最大水平。
尽管元旦周市场经济数据和财经事件甚少，但投资者需警惕清淡行情期间市场波动放大。与此同时，投资者还需警惕地缘政治方面传出新的消息而引发市场情绪变化。
technical analysis
American crude oil
日图：保利加通道上扬，油价脱离上轨;14and20Daily moving average bullish;随机指标自超买区回落。
4Hour chart: Poly plus channel convergence, oil prices developing above the mid rail;14and20Bullish moving average;随机指标试图转向走高。
1Hourly chart: Poly Plus channel declines, oil prices hit the middle track;14and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators are rising.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days60.45-62.60Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above12month27Daily high point61.95After breaking through, we will explore further9month17Daily high point62.60And then9month16Daily high point63.35and5month20Daily high point63.80, and4month30Daily high point64.75and4month26Daily high point65.05;And the following supports attention12month27Daily low point61.20Falling below will lead to exploration12month24Daily low point60.45And then12month20Daily low point60.00and12month16Daily low point59.70, and12month13Daily low point59.25and12month12Daily low point58.70。
Brent crude oil
日图：保利加通道收敛，油价自上轨回落;14and20Daily moving average bullish;Random indicators withdraw from overbought areas.
4Hour chart: Poly plus channel convergence, oil prices developing above the mid rail;14and20均线上行势头趋缓;Random indicators have declined.
1小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价自下轨下方回升;14and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators enter the oversold zone.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days65.80-68.30Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above12month24Daily low point67.25Breakthrough will be explored12month26Daily low point67.90And then12month27Daily high point68.30and9month17Daily high point69.20, and9month16Daily high point69.65and5month29Daily high point70.10;And the following supports attention12month23Daily high point66.60Falling below will lead to exploration12month23Daily low point65.80And then12month18Daily low point65.50and12month17Daily low point65.10, and12month13Daily low point64.50and12month12Daily low point63.85。
Follow on Monday:
U.S.A11Monthly wholesale inventory
U.S.A11Monthly commodity trade account
U.S.A12Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
U.S.A11月成屋签约销售指数
U.S.A12Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for the Month