兴业投资：供应趋紧&地缘风险，原油多头持续狂放

兴业投资：供应趋紧&地缘风险，crude oil多头持续狂放
2019year12month26day
国际油价周三继续攀升，美油和布油纷纷创下3个多月新高，因中美第一阶段贸易协议进展顺利有助于风险偏好情绪，美国API原油库存意外大降，此外朝美关系趋紧也对油价提供支持。不过科威特和沙特阿拉伯即将恢复边境沿线中立区域的原油产量令油价上行空间受限。美国截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil2monthfuturesIncome increase0.04USD, or0.07%Report61.15dollar/Bucket, highest reach61.35dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to61.14dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil2Monthly futures up0.65USD, or0.95%Report67.17dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray67.23dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to66.33dollar/Bucket.
中美第一阶段贸易协议的一系列进展相对顺利，有助于进一步改善全球经济和石油需求增长前景。美国总统特朗普周二表示，他将和中国共同签署本月宣布达成的第一阶段贸易协议。周三中国海关总署表示，第二批对美加征关税商品(600USD100mn)排除申请已于2019year10month18日截止提交，相关申请正在审核中。税委会将继续开展对美加征关税商品排除工作，后续批次排除清单将陆续公布。
American Petroleum Institute(API)周二最新数据显示，截至12month20During the current week, US crude oil inventories decreased79010000 barrels to4.441Billion barrels, analysts expect a decrease183.310000 barrels;Cushing inventory reduction22010000 barrels;汽油库存则增加56.6Ten thousand barrels, analysts expect an increase195.910000 barrels;Reduced inventory of refined oil51.4Ten thousand barrels, analysts expect an increase86.7Ten thousand barrels.API原油库存降幅远超预期，同时库欣库存也大幅减少。API数据公布后，美油和布油扩大涨幅。
与此同时，在2019年年底随着全球经济的关切减退，油价上涨。除此之外，OPEC+继续干预，限制原油供应。俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克表示，12月除凝析油以外的俄罗斯原油产量下降2410000 barrels/日。但由于非OPEC供应增加、需求增长无力，人们也担心OPEC+减产将无力支撑油价太久。
科威特和沙特签署协议恢复中立区石油生产的消息可能会给油价上涨带来一定的不利影响。科威特外交部24日发表声明称，科威特和沙特阿拉伯当天签署了恢复两国中立区石油生产的相关协议。声明称，两国代表在科威特外交部签署了一份协议和一份谅解备忘录，旨在恢复位于两国边境中立区的沃夫拉和海夫吉两处油田的石油生产。“这是历史性的成就”，是双方紧密合作的成果。 声明没有提及两国恢复石油生产的具体日期。科威特石油大臣哈立德?法迪勒说，恢复沃夫拉和海夫吉两处油田的石油生产将有利于两国经济发展，但不会影响两国遵守OPEC今年达成的减产协议。
近期朝鲜局势再度出现危险的苗头，这也给油价上涨提供支持。朝鲜外务省负责对美事务的副相李泰成此前发表谈话称，将在圣诞节给美国送一份礼物，至于送何礼物完全取决于美国的抉择。因此有观测认为，朝鲜可能在圣诞前后发射搭载卫星的远程火箭或洲际弹道导弹。但到目前为止，暂未捕捉到相关军事动向。一旦美朝对话限期届满，朝鲜可能会再次试射洲际弹道导弹，如若至此，这将标志着美朝以谈判结束朝方核计划的希望幻灭，令两国重回对抗之路。
USD Index
美元指数周二整体上保持在近三周高位97.757-97.577区间内窄幅波动，最终收于97.637，K线图收十字星。周二美国公布的12The monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is-5, expected1, Previous value-1，这表明制造业指数处于衰退状态。此外周一出炉的美国耐用品订单环比录得近六个月最差表现，市场对美国制造业和经济放缓的担忧有所升温。不及预期的美国经济数据在一定程度上令美元遭受打压。
technical analysis
American crude oil
日图：保利加通道收敛，油价在中轨上方发展;14and20Daily moving average bullish;Random indicators enter the overbought zone.
4Hour chart: Poly+channel spreads, oil prices closely follow the upward trend;14The moving average is attempting to cross20均线，后者适度上扬;The random indicator continues to rise in the overbought area.
1小时图：保利加通道上扬，油价紧随上轨发展;14and20Hourly moving average bullish;随机指标在超买区走高。
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days60.00-62.00Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above12month19Daily high point61.40After breaking through, we will explore further62.00Psychological barriers, followed by9month17Daily high point62.60and9month16Daily high point63.35, and5month20Daily high point63.80and4month30Daily high point64.75;And the following supports attention12month24Daily low point60.45Falling below will lead to exploration12month20Daily low point60.00And then12month16Daily low point59.70and12month13Daily low point59.25, and12month12Daily low point58.70and12month11Daily low point58.10。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Poly+channel spreads, oil prices closely follow the upward trend;14and20Daily moving average bullish;随机指标在超买区趋平。
4小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价上穿上轨;14and20Bullish moving average;随机指标在超买区震荡走高。
1小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价在上方附近发展;14and20Hourly moving average bullish;The random indicator continues to rise in the overbought area.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days65.80-68.00Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above7month15Daily high point67.45Breakthrough will be explored7month11Daily high point67.65And then68.00Psychological barriers and9month17Daily high point69.20, and9month16Daily high point69.65and5month29Daily high point70.10;And the following supports attention12month23Daily low point65.80Falling below will lead to exploration12month18Daily low point65.50And then12month17Daily low point65.10and12month13Daily low point64.50, and12month12Daily low point63.85and12month11Daily low point63.00。
Follow on Thursday:
Weekly unemployment claims in the United States