MEX GROUP:本周予美/日中性评级，预测做空镑/日及镑/瑞更为吸引

Market Focus

[li]Trading preference – 我们维持美/day (USDJPY) 中性及及看好欧/beautiful (EURUSD) 的偏好。圣诞节假期，全球各地股市交易时间减短，同时财经日历上重大数据较少，本周市场波动性将较低。中国将减低部分美国商品的关税，消息利好中美贸易谈判及地缘政治局势，商品货币也因而受提振并领涨主要货币。美国核心耐用品订单数据出乎预期地造差，上月环比增长仅为0.0% (市场预期: 0.1%)，我们维持上周对美/日的中性评级，并认为美/日在本周将先升后回，因我们注意到CFTC资金流反映日元的净空头渐趋极值并将吸引资金流入，同时109.50也是美/日的一大阻力，目前走势上符合我们预期，。另外，我们认为欧元相对超跌并予以买入评级，投资者可参考MEX量化组合建立本周的欧元头寸。
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[li]商品货币方面，我们重申美/plus (USDCAD) 的估值应在1.32水平，大跌的空间不大。另外，上周我们一再吁投资者做空镑/Australia (GBPAUD) 及镑/Newtonian (GBPNZD) ，两者分别下跌2.74%and2.48% 反映为有效，对此我们认为英镑相对商品货币的下跌已大致完成并反映在价内，惟因我们本周予美/日中性评级，做空镑/day (GBPJPY) 及镑/Rui (GBPCHF) 更为吸引，投资者可继续参考MEX量化组合每周调仓。It is worth noting that the money market plays a crucial role in2019The year shows a stable and significant weekly momentum reversal effect,MEX动量反转量化策略因而再创本年新高Investors2020You can continue to refer to our weekly suggested combination for the year.
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[li]MEXQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（α）For13%.The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3％. Without considering actual leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the yearFor details, please refer to《Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal StrategyG7Currency hedging portfolio》.组合净值上周大涨1.62%并再创新高，This week's combination and as of Beijing time12month24day09:45The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).
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abstract

[li]CFTC资金流数据显示，欧元及日元净空头处极值，我们认为将有资金流入，并支持回涨。另外，英镑及瑞郎净多头也达极值。
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[li]Australia/美、纽/美、WTI再次到达目标价，投资者可先兑现部分盈利。
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[li]我们中线维持看好商品。
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Target price	Europe/beautiful	beautiful/day	Pound/beautiful	beautiful/plus	Australia/beautiful	Newtonian/beautiful
short-term	1.1100	109.00	1.3150	1.3200	0.6940	0.6640
midline	1.1100	109.00	1.3400	1.3200	0.6900	0.6600

Target price	WTI	XAU
short-term	61.00	1,480
midline	62.00	1,480

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