夏琦恒：现货黄金与原油的区别？投资者该如何选择？

　　夏琦恒：现货goldAndcrude oilThe difference? How should investors choose?


　　Investors can make judgments based on how the market will be expected based on fundamentals, but even if the judgment is accurate, the timing and strength of the market trend caused by this expectation may still far exceed your expectations. This actually proves how difficult it is to make accurate market predictions, even if it is based on a bunch of proven correct judgments. Because if market volatility is a big deal, then 'facts' are just one of the ingredients.





　　现货黄金与原油的区别：


　　Firstly, crude oil is more sensitive to economic changes, while spot gold is more sensitive to currency changes.A significant portion of crude oil demand comes from industrial demand, accounting for approximately40%On the contrary, the demand for spot gold is mostly due to investment and jewelry demand. Due to the close relationship between crude oil and industry, crude oil is sensitive to changes in economic factors such as industrial productivity, manufacturing demand, and so on.


　　Secondly, crude oil is a commodity, while spot gold is a precious metal.Crude oil mainly focuses on the situation in the Middle East and shale oil in the United States, and is also susceptible to the influence of Sino US factors. Spot gold mainly focuses on the US dollar index. Crude oil is greatly affected by news, such as crude oil storage data, because crude oil is consumed, while gold is not, and gold can be stored indefinitely.


　　Thirdly, compared to spot gold, crude oil has higher volatility.The small market size and low liquidity, coupled with fluctuations in demand between industrial and stored value purposes, have led to increased volatility in crude oil trading.


　　第四，原油和现货黄金来自于不同的产品资源，这对于二者的价格也会起到很重要的影响。The relationship between crude oil production and crude oil prices is not as close as the relationship between gold production and gold prices. Because most crude oil is produced as ancillary products of metals such as lead, zinc, copper, and gold.





　　现货黄金与原油的概念：


　　现货黄金是即期交易，指在交易成交后交割或数天内交割。Spot gold is an international investment product, established by various gold companies through trading platforms, and traded online to market participants in the form of leverage ratios, forming an investment and wealth management project. Spot gold, also known as spot gold, is the world's largest stock. Due to the huge daily trading volume of spot gold, the daily trading volume is approximately20Trillion dollars. Therefore, no consortium or institution can artificially manipulate such a huge market, relying solely on market self-regulation. The spot gold market lacks market makers, is regulated, has strong self-discipline, and has sound regulations.


　　原油即石油，也称"black gold "Traditionally, unprocessed petroleum extracted directly from oil wells is referred to as crude oil, which is a black brown or dark green viscous liquid or semi-solid combustible substance composed of various hydrocarbons. Crude oil investment started relatively late in China, but it still has very similar operational methods to international spot gold.


　　虽然黄金和原油的交易模式是一样的，都是双向操作，买跌买涨，炒价格。但是原油在某种程度上很难单纯只用技术指标来对它的长期走势进行判断，因为它要考虑的政局因素很多。


　　现货黄金和现货原油之间存在着正相关的关系，石油价格上涨意味着通胀会随之而来，黄金是通胀之下的保值品，黄金保值避险的作用就会受到人们的青睐。一般来说，现货原油价格的上升预示着现货黄金价格也要上升，现货原油价格下跌预示着现货黄金价格也要下跌。从中长期来看现货黄金与现货原油波动趋势是基本一致的，只是大小幅度有所区别。





　　投资成功的关键词希望经常在我们耳边回荡和长久铭记于心：能否精确估值不是决定因素，而在于街上血流成河时，你敢不敢踏着前人的血迹买进；当所有人都在憧憬股市就是款机时，你舍不舍得激流勇退。