Li Dingyuan:12.16今日黄金还会跌吗？日内金价行情走势分析及操作建议

PerplexinggoldIt is always full of surprises and changes, and many people always lose their direction in the complex market. In this rising and falling market, it is difficult to firm their own thinking. When operating trading, it is necessary to control risks well, strengthen their own thinking, stop losses in a timely manner when wrong, and persist in holding near the target. Don't follow the crowd and be afraid of making mistakes, which can lead to confusion and distorted operations. My name is Li Dingyuan. Any market is also following the laws of nature; Survival of the fittest survival of the fittest, one think two do three success, one wait two see three fail; Thinking is the problem, doing is the answer; Lose in hesitation, win in action!
　　
　　上周五因国际贸易乐观情绪，黄金一度下跌10美元，但是因市场已经有所消化，同时美国零售销售数据不及预期，且美国众议院通过了对于特朗普的弹劾指控，黄金随后反弹16美元刷新日内高点。日内制造业PMI数据密集，全球制造业疲软正成为制掣经济复苏的重要因素，同时随着保守党赢得大选，短时间市场的焦点转向英欧谈判上来，双方在一些具体细节上仍存在分歧。如果近期黄金仍维持在1470/1480区间内，随着市场不确定性增加，可能会为黄金上探1500奠定基调。
　　
　　李鼎缘个人观点：国际贸易局势有所改善，英国大选也告一段落，市场避险需求降温，恐慌指数VIX跌至两周低位，SPDR黄金持仓位于近三个月低位，这对金价不利；不过，美元指数仍然比较疲软，后市仍存进一步下行风险，可能会给金价提供一些支撑。受国际贸易局势乐观向好以及OPEC+深化减产的提振，crude oil价格上周五收在60dollar/桶上方，这是此前沙特阿拉伯遭到袭击导致油价创纪录飙升之后的首次。但需要注意，美国石油产量增长明年料增加至209010000 barrels/日，这可能导致全球库存料急剧增加，从而令油价承压。由于中美之间达成协议，金融投资者的风险偏好现在可能会保持高涨。然而至少在上半年，石油市场面临着巨大的供过于求和库存大幅增加的风险。
　　
Gold Market Analysis
　　
　　上周中美两国达成第一阶段贸易协议，且英国首相约翰逊所在的保守党在大选中大获全胜，这两大进展暂时驱散了笼罩全球投资领域的迷雾，打击了对美元的避险需求，但由于中美贸易协议缺乏细节且小特弹劾案引发政治不确定性，现货黄金依旧在1470上方站稳脚跟。本交易日来看，中美欧有系列数据密集出炉，可能会引发市场波动，投资者对此拭目以待。
　　
　　由于此前长时间的不确定性几乎耗尽了投资者的精力，因此当最终结果出来时，交易者似乎早已提前消化这些消息，市场波动反而相对较为平静。且中美贸易协议相关的细节较缺乏，市场仍有些许的隐忧，因此黄金依旧保持其韧性，目前仍站稳于1470美元关口上方。技术面看，日图显示金价温和震荡上行，MACDThe red kinetic energy column remains stable,KDJ随机指标温和走高，指示黄金反弹动能仍存，接下来仍可能展开上行。4小时图上看，金价反弹后有所回落，MACD红色动能柱略微缩窄，但KDJ随机指标大幅走高，指示黄金短线动能喜忧参半，接下来或进行一段时间的窄幅盘整。
　　
Suggestions for short-term operation of gold:
　　
　　1Suggestions1483Short nearby, stop loss1488, Objective1475-1472；
　　
　　2Suggestions1467Long nearby, stop loss1462, Objective1474-1478；
　　
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Personal feedback on making orders:
　　
　　1Spot: The spot where the order is placed is quite important, although gold.Crude oil operates in two modes: long and short. In fact, there are four operating methods: low, low, high, and high. In a unilateral trend, these four modes are all feasible. If you are in a volatile trend, remember not to be low or high. This is equivalent to chasing gains and selling losses. Remember, many people are chasing gains and selling losses.
　　
　　2Stop loss: Before placing an order, you should think about the stop loss price and whether it is reasonable. After placing an order, you should immediately fill in the stop loss price. Why do you need to fill in the stop loss at the beginning? If the market is not the situation you want to go, then you can reduce losses in the first place. Stop loss means to stop losses. Only small losses can maintain vitality, and sometimes you need to be willing to give up, It's not that you're losing this time and won't be able to earn back next time. You need to control the risks of your investment.
　　
　　3Positions: How funds are allocated is related to the level of psychological resilience. If a position is too large or full, once the trend reverses, losses will increase, and psychological stress will also increase. Often, it is not possible to carefully analyze market trends, resulting in incorrect operations.
　　
　　4Stop profit: Many people often fail to do a good job of stopping profit, resulting in profit orders becoming loss orders. In a unilateral trend, stop profit can be increased by using the push stop loss method to increase profit space. Stop profit often requires personal thinking to close positions, not every order must earn tens of thousands or even tens of thousands. In a volatile market, sometimes a few hundred profits add up.
　　
　　5Attitude: This is the most important point that every investor must grasp. When you enter this market, it is undeniable that everyone is trying to make money, but your attitude determines how far you will go on the investment path. What you need to achieve is to rather make small profits than lose money, rather than thinking about earning more and earning less.
　　
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Analysis writer: Li Dingyuan  Wei-Core（ ldy86588） Official account (Li Dingyuan)
　　
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