Jue Ying Lun Jin:12.13Analysis of crude oil trend 美联储降息“急刹车”难改黄金空头趋势

　　运用心理分析法完成一次操作的原理在于：价格波动始于公众心理价格的不统一，始于基本平衡态的打破。在市场混乱时建仓，价格会在一个新的公众心理“共识”的影响下受到追捧或打压，直到出现一个公众心理可以接受的大众价格。在这个价格上，多空双方的势力再一次基本均衡，市场才又开始基本维持盘整态势，一个上涨(fall)行情由此结束。我们获利了结，一次操作完成。我们所要把握的就是，公众心理达成新“共识”时的市场方向。
　　
　　尽管美联储12月利率决议为降息踩下刹车，但市场早已充分消化此预期，加上政策声明显示该行短期内不太可能加息，且为未来进一步放宽政策埋下伏笔，令美元指数显着承压，而gold则趁势上扬。随后，在英国大选的谨慎情绪之下，金价进一步扩大涨幅，并于周四（12month12日）美市早盘触及1487，创逾一个月新高。但行情很快峰回路转，美国总统特朗普发布有关贸易的乐观言论，令金价演绎倒V反转行情。对黄金而言，祸不单行的是，英国大选又为风险偏好带来更多刺激。绝影认为，除非出现意外，否则英国大选正式结果的发布对市场产生较大冲击的可能性不大，因市场早已将大选结果计算到价格中。
　　
　　绝影论金个人观点：WTIcrude oil价格在上周大幅上涨后似乎丧失了一些动能，本周持续在上周五的高点附近徘徊，同时也承压在始于2018year12月以来的下行趋势线/阻力线下方。过去两个多月WTI油价走势无论是上涨还是抛售，短期波动都不会太持久。目前空头尚未建立大规模仓位，但历史总会重演：自10Since the beginning of the month,WTI原油价格在经历数次快速强劲上涨后，在随后的1-3天内又迅速走低回吐涨幅。如油价再次走低可能会延续此前的震荡格局，若其跌破始于10月初以来的上升趋势通道下轨则将大幅下行。国际贸易局势出现了一些乐观消息，美国股市再创历史记录新高，民调显示英国大选保守党将会大胜，也打压避险需求，令金价再次受制于100日均线并回落至1470下方，市场对晚间美国零售数据的预期比较乐观，短线金价面临重回跌势的风险。
　　
————Analysis of Gold Market
　　
　　今日美元指数大幅走弱，因出口民调显示英国保守党将以较大优势赢得大选，英镑大幅上涨，对美元打压明显。但尽管美元走弱，现货黄金却窄幅震荡，国际贸易局势的乐观预期升温，打压避险需求。目前黄金持有中性到积极的立场，其未来走势很大程度上取决于各国央行的行动以及市场避险情绪推动，多家机构仍押注金价2020年走强。不过，美元的大幅走弱，可能会略微限制短线的下行空间。
　　
　　目前从技术上看，黄金空头仍具有全面的技术优势。金价仍处于两个多月的下降趋势线之中，周五的大跌强化了这一势头。多头近期的目标是重返1500关口；空头的目标则是控制金价在1500大关下方，并拉低至1400的关口。第一阻力位为1470USD, followed by1480美元。第一支撑位在隔夜低点1464.59美元；其次是1460美元。文中操作建议仅供参考，具体建议实盘现价给出，操作不理想或把握不了行情方向的朋友可添加指导微信：3051562977Obtain guidance quotas;
　　
Suggestions for short-term operation of gold:
　　
　　1Suggestions1477Short nearby, stop loss1482, Objective1471-1466；
　　
　　2Suggestions1462Long nearby, stop loss1457, Objective1469-1476；
　　
　　3、策略仅供参考，盘间行情瞬息万变，具体进场点位以绝影论金微信(MOT686)The actual offer shall prevail;
　　
————Analysis of crude oil market
　　
　　由于特朗普发表乐观的贸易言论,提振了市场对中美贸易接近达成协议的预期,削弱了投资者对全球原油需求的担忧,国际油价周四受此提振走高,接近此前创下的三个月高位。不过,International Energy Agency(IEA)认为尽管OPEC+达成扩大减产的协议,但全球石油库存仍可能大幅上升。这导致油价上行空间受限。不过,International Energy Agency(IEA)还指出,虽然石油输出国组织(OPEC)And nonOPEC产油国达成了扩大减产协议,同时美国以及其他非OPEC产油国的产量增幅料将放缓,但全球原油库存仍可能大幅攀升。
　　
　　从技术面日图:保利加通道上扬,油价跟随上轨发展;14and20日均线适度看涨;Random indicators fluctuate higher.4Hour chart:保利加通道扩散,油价紧随上轨发展;14and20均线温和看涨;Random indicators are rising.1Hour chart:保利加通道上扬,油价自上轨回落;14and20Hourly moving average bullish;随机指标自超买区回落。综述分析:It is expected that the oil price will be58.10-60.25Intrainterval oscillation,可尝试高抛吸低。上方阻力关注59.85-60.25,;And the following supports attention58.70-58.10；文中操作建议仅供参考，具体建议实盘现价给出，操作不理想或把握不了行情方向的朋友可添加指导微信：3051562977Obtain guidance quotas;
　　
Suggestions for short-term crude oil operations:
　　
　　1Suggestions59.85Short selling, stop loss60.35, Objective59.3-58.8；
　　
　　2Suggestions58.1Long, stop loss57.6, Objective58.9-59.2；
　　
　　3、行情瞬息万变、点位仅供参考，中长线布局详情请关注绝影论金官||Wei:MOT686；
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Personal feedback on making orders:
　　
　　1Spot: The spot where the order is placed is quite important, although gold.Crude oil operates in two modes: long and short. In fact, there are four operating methods: low, low, high, and high. In a unilateral trend, these four modes are all feasible. If you are in a volatile trend, remember not to be low or high. This is equivalent to chasing gains and selling losses. Remember, many people are chasing gains and selling losses.
　　
　　2Stop loss: Before placing an order, you should think about the stop loss price and whether it is reasonable. After placing an order, you should immediately fill in the stop loss price. Why do you need to fill in the stop loss at the beginning? If the market is not the situation you want to go, then you can reduce losses in the first place. Stop loss means to stop losses. Only small losses can maintain vitality, and sometimes you need to be willing to give up, It's not that you're losing this time and won't be able to earn back next time. You need to control the risks of your investment.
　　
　　3Positions: How funds are allocated is related to the level of psychological resilience. If a position is too large or full, once the trend reverses, losses will increase, and psychological stress will also increase. Often, it is not possible to carefully analyze market trends, resulting in incorrect operations.
　　
　　4Stop profit: Many people often fail to do a good job of stopping profit, resulting in profit orders becoming loss orders. In a unilateral trend, stop profit can be increased by using the push stop loss method to increase profit space. Stop profit often requires personal thinking to close positions, not every order must earn tens of thousands or even tens of thousands. In a volatile market, sometimes a few hundred profits add up.
　　
　　5Attitude: This is the most important point that every investor must grasp. When you enter this market, it is undeniable that everyone is trying to make money, but your attitude determines how far you will go on the investment path. What you need to achieve is to rather make small profits than lose money, rather than thinking about earning more and earning less.
　　
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