Jue Ying Lun Jin:12.11黄金凌晨3点出方向 原油黄金最新行情分析操作建议

　　投资不过是一场关于如何衡量胜算的游戏，你所要做的是计算每一笔交易的风险报酬比，并判断这笔交易是否划算，然后投入你所能承受风险的资金。记住永远给自己留下下一次交易的机会。30%交易技术+30%风险控制与资金管理+30%纪律+10%运气=投机成功
　　
Thursday Beijing Time（12month12In the early morning of the day03:00Federal ReserveFOMC公布利率决议及政策声明； 03:30，美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会。这可能是此次超级金融周最重磅的风险事件。据CMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve12月维持当前利率在1.50%-1.75%The probability of the interval is99.3%Interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is0%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is0.7%； By next year1月维持当前利率在1.50%-1.75%The probability of the interval is90.5%Interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is8.8%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is0.7%。也就是说，美联储12月和明年1月暂停降息已无悬念。关键在于美联储的会议声明及鲍威尔的新闻发布会将释放何种信号。由于上周五（12month6The United States announced in Japan11月非农就业报告表现强劲，令美联储有更多维持现状以观察形势的底气。若周三（12month11The United States announced in Japan11月消费者物价指数年率优于预期的2.0%，将会令美联储倾向更为鹰派。
　　
　　绝影论金个人观点：市场预期国际贸易局势不会进一步恶化，打压避险需求；市场对晚间美国CPI数据的预期比较乐观，而且美联储会议纪要在维持利率不变的同时可能偏向释放鹰派信号，这也对金价不利；技术面信号显示，金价后略微偏向震荡下行。国际油价盘中走低。尽管OPEC上周与产油盟国达成的在2020年进一步减产的协议继续为油价提供支撑，但国际贸易紧张关系给需求前景蒙上了阴影。另一方面，API数据利空令油价短线跳水。API报告显示，美国crude oil库存上周增加141万桶，此前分析师预期库存下降。数据方面，还需留意晚间23:30PublishedEIAChanges in crude oil inventory.
　　
　　————goldquotations analysis
　　
　　在上周出炉了靓丽异常的美国11月非农数据后，目前市场上对美联储暂停降息预期再度升温，甚至出现了加息预期，美联储12月利率决议公布前，还将迎来美国11Monthly consumer price index(CPI)，该数据将于北京时间21:30公布，若数据强于预期，将进一步强化市场对美联储放鹰的预期，届时有望提振美元，施压金价。绝影认为投机者是造成黄金价格日常波动的原因，购买黄金作为安全港的投资者往往是耐心的投资者，乐于从容应对短期价格波动，但也有许多投资者希望从金价的短期波动中赚钱。
　　
　　在诸多风险集中爆发之前，现货黄金依旧受到支撑，目前交投在1460关口上方，等待今夜的美联储决议。绝影认为无论是贸易问题还是美联储利率决议都会是影响金价的因素；如果美联储表态较为鹰派，那么金价会下跌。但如果贸易问题没有取得进展，那么市场将再次涌向避险资产。金价继续窄幅波动，金价在小型看涨通道内波动，这形成了一个潜在的看空旗形。值得注意的是，随机指标目前提供负面信号，这构成一个负面动力，预计将推动金价继续看空趋势，首个目标在1447.00dollar/盎司，更进一步目标位于1413.10dollar/盎司。预期今日金价交投将位于支撑位1445.00dollar/盎司以及阻力位1470.00dollar/盎司之间。文中操作建议仅供参考，具体建议实盘现价给出，操作不理想或把握不了行情方向的朋友可添加指导微信：3051562977Obtain guidance quotas;
　　
Suggestions for short-term operation of gold:
　　
　　1Suggestions1471Short nearby, stop loss1476, Objective1465-1462；
　　
　　2Suggestions1456Long nearby, stop loss1451, Objective1462-1466；
　　
　　3、策略仅供参考，盘间行情瞬息万变，具体进场点位以绝影论金微信(MOT686)The actual offer shall prevail;
　　
————Analysis of crude oil market
　　
　　国际油价周二前半日继续受到OPEC+减产协议的提振走高,逼近上周五创下的三个月高位,但由于中美贸易第一阶段协议的不确定性和美国APIIncrease in crude oil inventory,拖累油价回吐稍早涨幅。OPEC及其盟友上周在维也纳达成的进一步减产协议提振了油价。在2020年第一度增加减产5010000 barrels/day,这意味着总减产将达到170万桶。不过并没有就明年3月以后采取的行动做出承诺。绝影论金表示，OPEC意外扩大减产之后,能源市场找到了立足点。尽管OPEC最终带来了积极的意外,从而降低了市场对供应过剩的预期,但未来几个季度,库存仍将增加。
　　
　　从技术面日图看:保利加通道扩散,油价在中轨上方发展;14and20日均线适度看涨;Random indicators have declined.4Hour chart:保利加通道收敛,油价下测中轨;14均线趋于,20均线上升势头趋缓;Random indicators have declined.1Hour chart:保利加通道趋平,油价跌穿中轨;14Hourly moving average bullish,20The hourly moving average remains unchanged;随机指标在超卖区继续走低。综合分析:It is expected that the oil price will be57.7-59.85Intrainterval oscillation,可尝试高抛吸低。上方阻力关注59.5-59.8；而下方支持留意58.3-58.0；文中操作建议仅供参考，具体建议实盘现价给出，操作不理想或把握不了行情方向的朋友可添加指导微信：3051562977Obtain guidance quotas;
　　
Suggestions for short-term crude oil operations:
　　
　　1Suggestions59.5Short selling, stop loss60.0, Objective558.9-58.6；
　　
　　2Suggestions58.3Long, stop loss57.8, Objective58.9-59.2；
　　
　　3、行情瞬息万变、点位仅供参考，中长线布局详情请关注绝影论金官||Wei:MOT686；
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　　下面给投资不理想的投资者分享一下心得技巧：
　　
1： What are the investment precautions?
　　
　　1、在贵金属投资中，要充分认识风险和效益、赢钱与输钱的概率及防范的几个大问题。如果对风险防范没有一个确切的认识，随意进行买卖，那么输钱是必然的，一般只要严格设置单子止损和单子止盈，轻仓做单就能很好的控制风险。
　　
　　2Knowing oneself and the enemy, one will never be defeated in a hundred battles. But in the gold market, self-awareness is paramount, and investors need to understand their own personalities, as those who are prone to impulsiveness or emotional tendencies are not suitable for this investment. Most successful investors are able to control their emotions and have strict discipline, effectively restraining themselves. So, only those who know themselves can ultimately win in the gold market.
　　
　　3In a sense, sometimes misreading the market trend or suddenly reversing the situation after placing an order can lead to the order being trapped, which is a normal phenomenon that even experts cannot avoid. However, the stupidest behavior in decision-making and post event handling stems from the mentality of small business owners. Successful investors will not blindly follow the opinions of others. When everyone is in the same investment position, especially small investors who are also following suit, successful investors will feel dangerous and change their course.
　　
　　4The market is real, don't be sentimental, overly yearn for the future and reminisce about the past. A senior trader said: A person full of fantasy, rich emotions, and very exposed is a beautiful and happy person, but he is not suitable for being an investor. A successful investor can separate his emotions, fantasies, and trading.
　　
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