减产迷局施压油价，民调结果助力英镑

　　
多空争夺1.10关口，通胀数据可期(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar17Individual points, closing up0.06%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin middle track tends to decline, and the exchange rate is close to the Bolin lower track; Daily lineMA5,10构死叉，MA5稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to39-40一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注布林中轨，下方支撑关注1.0985Location.
　　
Fundamentals:Germany11Monthly harmonyCPIAnnual rate initial value recorded1.2%，达到五个月高点，一定程度上推升了市场对欧元区通胀数据的预期。此外，因油价上涨带来的基数上升效应，市场也预计欧元区总体通胀率将进一步上升。荷兰国际集团欧元区首席经济学家发表言论称，欧元区经济已经触底。若今日数据好于预期，将进一步推升欧元。当前欧元兑美元已经自周三创下的一个月低点回升，重回1.10关口。历史上看，1.10关口附近一直是欧元兑美元波动最频繁的区间。
　　
深度减产预期或成空，油价延续低位整理(USOIL)
　　
Technical aspect:WTIcrude oil上一交易日收涨0.19%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平，汇价贴近布林下轨；日线MA5,10,20三线趋黏合，MA5,10双线稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFF线黏合DEA势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to57-58Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above58.63，下方支撑关注布林中轨位置。
　　
Fundamentals:周四，欧佩克表示在当前的减产规模下，预计油市将在2020年实现油市平衡。本周欧佩克经济委员会的数据显示，2020年上半年的石油供应盈余大部分被今年最后六个月的短缺抵消。欧佩克的这一信息被解读为在几天后的大会上，欧佩克将不会宣布深化减产。昨日两油闻讯小幅走低。此前摩根士丹利表示，鉴于非欧佩克国家的产量处于高位，如果欧佩克+不宣布深化减产，布伦特原油或跌30%to45dollar/桶，花旗集团与法巴银行预计会跌至50dollar/Bucket.
　　
民调显示保守党或大胜，市场谨慎评估大选可能(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达52Points, closing down0.14%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin track tends to rise, and the exchange rate continues to operate above the track; Daily lineMA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5趋于走高；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to54-55Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1.3015, lower support1.2765。
　　
Fundamentals:according toYougov民调，英国首相约翰逊或将赢得绝对多数。受此消息提振，英镑兑美元短线拉升60余点，但随后全部涨幅均回吐。有分析指出，这显示了市场对民调结果可靠性的担忧。在2015Year and2017年的前两次大选，以及2016年的脱欧公投中，最终的计票结果都与选前民调大相径庭。分析认为，在“双十二”大选之前，就算民调结果有利于保守党，英镑也将不会有很大的涨幅。若无意外好消息刺激，英镑兑美元料很难有效上破1.30关口。大华分析师：英镑可能继续在1.2770附近的本月低点和1.3012的上月高点之间波动，升破1.3012一线的可能性不大。
　　
　　
　　
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