Zhou Hongjin:11.27黄金初请走势预判交易策略，原油EIA行情解析空单解套

Life is always about making choices and waiting for results. The road cannot always be smooth, there will always be obstacles, mediocrity is not the goal that everyone pursues. The investment market is also the same, it cannot be smooth sailing, and windfall profits are everyone's dream, but there are always various temptations and traps along the way. Accustomed to unilateral behavior, one is always stifled by shocks and washes, which is the law of the market. In the face of life, we are making choices. We can't make a detour, we can't make a river, we always have to resort to other methods. And the market, too, should not blindly pursue operation. Some markets may see profits, but they may not necessarily be able to earn profits.
　　消息面解读:
Spotgoldfall drastically1460，金价现报1458.92dollar/Ounces, intraday decline0.17%。日内黄金波动不足五美元，亚洲股市整体仍走高，令黄金吸引力有限。鸿ㅣ金认为尽管市场仍对中镁经贸协议持谨慎态度，但已经消化了部分达成经贸协议的预期，投资者迫切希望了解关于中镁之间期待已久的经贸协议的更多细节；，唯一推动金市走势的题材就是中镁经贸协议；在过去的几个交易日中，黄金一直在遭抛售，因市场预期两国将达成协议；目前，金价走势暂停，市场处于一种观望模式。
　　国际油价下跌，美油现报58.29dollar/Barrel, decline0.21%；布油现报63.11dollar/桶，幅0.16%。美油企稳于58上方，过去几个月来，油市受经贸消息影响来回波动，暗示进展甚微的消息也能推动油价反弹，尽管中镁经贸协议尚未敲定，但APIcrude oil和汽油库存超预期增加令油价承压，难进一步走高。鸿ㅣ金认为，如果我们看到中镁经贸紧张局势缓和，市场对原油和燃料需求增长将放缓的担忧也会缓解。OPEC+可能延长减产协议和提高利用率应能对油价提供有限支撑。

　　

　　Gold trend analysis:
　　
　　尽管感恩节前一些空单获利了结，美国股市再创历史记录新高，一些机构配置黄金已规避股市再节后意外下跌的情况出现，黄金ETF持仓增加，给金价提供了反弹机会，但国际经贸局势的乐观预期继续升温，恐慌指数创七个月新低，暗示避险需求较低；市场对晚间美国数据的预期偏向利好美元，金价后市下行风险仍存。
　　
　　日线来看，震荡下跌；金价在1450附近获得了一些支撑，MACDGolden fork,KDJ金叉，均线交织，短线走势变数较大，考虑到多跟均线依然对金价有所压制，在顶破10Daily moving average1465.87前，后市仍偏向震荡下行；初步支撑仍在隔夜低点1450.13附近，然后是近期低点1445.50附近支撑，鸿ㅣ金认为若下破该支撑，则增加后市看空信号；进一步支撑分别在6month25Daily low point1439.21Nearby, further support at8month2Daily low point1430.46附近。若意外顶破1465.87附近阻力，则增加短线看涨信号，后市可能会再次上探上周高点1478.90附近阻力，当然20Daily moving average1473.67附近也存在一些阻力；强阻力在100Daily moving average1484.00Near.
　　
　　4小时来看，震荡下跌后反弹；MACDGolden fork,KDJ金叉，但KDJofJ值以及发出短线超买信号，金价受到布林线中轨压制，后市仍有一定的下行风险，留意布林线下轨1450.63附近支撑，关注3268735920若下破该支撑，则增加后市看空信号。若金价顶破布林线中轨1462.85附近阻力，则可能会进一步涨向布林线上轨1475.06附近。综合来看，今日操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；
　　
　　上方关注阻力：1463.27；1467.93；1473.28；
　　
Pay attention to support below:1457.65；1452.09；1445.70；

　　

Suggestions for Gold Operations:
　　
　　1Rebound1463Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1453-1452；
　　
　　2Callback1452Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1460-1462；
　　
　　3、盘间行情实时变化，具体操作策略以周鸿金（薇-Core:zh66646）指导实盘为准；
　　
　　Analysis of crude oil trend:
　　
　　国际经贸局势的乐观预期升温，带动美国股市再创历史记录新高，提振原油需求前景，给油价提供支撑，尽管API原油库存意外增加，令涨势受限，但市场还将关注晚间的EIA原油库存变化，如果增幅低于API增幅，则油价仍有可能继续震荡上涨；当然对于EIA美国原油产量变化和 库欣原油库存的变化也需要予以留意。
　　
Looking at the daily chart, it fluctuates and rises;MACDandKDJ的金叉信号略微有所增强，油价守住200日均线后小幅上攻，增加了短线看涨信号，预计有望顶破63.38-50.99Downtrend61.8%Retreat position58.64附近阻力压制，然后偏向进一步试探60整数关口附近阻力，鸿ㅣ金认为该位置的得失会影响到中线走势的判断；短线的话，9month19Daily high point59.49附近也存在一些阻力。下方200The daily moving average support is currently at57.55Nearby,20The daily moving average is supported by57.05附近，若意外回落至该位置下方，则增加短线看空信号；上周四低点支撑在56.60Nearby, strong support on100Daily moving average55.92Near.
　　
　　4小时来看，震荡；MACDBonding,KDJ粘合有死叉迹象，但布林线中轨给油价提供支撑，短线走势变数较大，在失守布林线中轨57.94前，略微偏向震荡上涨；不过布林线有收口迹象，进一步走势需要留意布林线轨道57.04-58.83区域突破情况。关注3268735920若能顶破布林线上轨58.83附近阻力，则增加后市看涨信号。若意外下破布林线下轨57.04附近支撑，则增加短线看空信号。综合来看，失守57.55前，后市偏向震荡上涨或者高位震荡；所以今日操作思路上周鸿金个人建议低多为主，高空为辅；
　　
　　上方关注阻力：58.83；59.49；60.00；
　　
Pay attention to support below:57.94；57.55；57.05；

　　

Suggestions for crude oil operation:
　　
　　1Callback57.6Do not break long, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target58.4-58.6；
　　
　　2Rebound58.8Stop loss without breaking short0.5US dollars, look at the target57.8-57.6；
　　
　　3、盘间行情实时变化，具体操作策略以周鸿金（薇-Core:zh66646）指导实盘为准；
　　
Special reminder: Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and patiently wait for the best opportunity to sell. Avoiding frequent trading is one of the recognized winning secrets. Do not attempt to capture all fluctuations, nor expect to grasp every segment of the market. Judging the market trend is just one part of trading. Investors also need to have a reverence for the market, remember trading discipline, and strictly control their positions, reduce greed, overcome fear, and try to maintain a calm mind when trading.
　　
Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
　　
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