Li Dingyuan:11.18黄金反弹维稳维持区间走势，后市金价走势分析及操作建议

　　说实话我希望可以把自己的热情暖感染到每一个人。我爱我的行业，几年间，几乎都熬夜看盘到很晚，也常常因为解一个客户的套单，通宵不睡，不仅要解套，还要经常和他们谈心，做这一行，心态，永远是第一位，我觉得客户和分析师的差别不仅仅是专业技能的差别，最大的地方是心态，客户多半因为真金白银犹豫不决半信半疑的错过很多盈利机会，反而会亏，我是一个心很软的人。做久了和客户成了朋友，有时候也很心疼他们的处境，做这个多半是想赚钱，能改善一下生活条件，听了他们的故事，真的是暗暗下决心一定要为他们多赚一点。毕竟谁的钱都不是大风刮来的，都是辛辛苦苦的血汗钱。我们要尊重自己的劳动成果。我爱这个的行业，我不知道有多少人在和我一样的坚持着我们的初衷。为了分析师这个头衔没日没夜的拼着。我也希望看到我这段话的真真正正的投资者，能让我为你们做点什么。对投资不理想或者想学习的朋友可以咨询我，我会尽我最大的努力帮助你。

　　

SpotgoldFriday(11month15day)Moderate decline, with the lowest intraday drop in the US market reaching1461.80dollar/盎司，金价开盘后小幅攀升，触及日内高位1471.20后转跌，继续运行在1460上方。白银也转跌，盘中最低触及16.79dollar/盎司，银价继续运行在17美元关口下方。美元继续下挫，美元指数最低下探至98.01On98关口波动。
　　
Announced within the day10月份零售销售报告较9月份增长了0.3%，略高于市场预期。同时，纽约制造业指数低迷，11Month is2.9，10Month is4.0。但数据对市场的影响较小。10月份的工业生产和制造业生产分别下降了0.8%and0.6%。
　　
　　由于美国和中国再次达成经贸协定以避免12月征税的新希望激发了市场的乐观情绪，美国商务部长罗斯(Wilbur Ross)周五表示，美国极有可能与中国达成经贸协议。受经贸乐观言论提振，道指周五创下历史新高，首次达到2.8万点。道指仅用了四个多月的时间，就从2.7万点升至2.8万点。贵金属周五难以找到需求，导致投资者远离避险资产。然而，美元疲软限制了黄金的跌幅。
　　
　　李鼎缘认为：目前按照技术面来看黄金空头仍具有全面的技术优势。金价处于两个月的下降趋势线之中，盘整区间已被打破，转为下行，意味着将会有更多的抛压。多头近期的目标是重返1500关口；空头的目标则是控制金价在1500大关下方，并拉低至1400的关口。第一阻力位为1470USD, followed by1480美元。第一支撑位在隔夜低点1461.80美元；其次是1450USD.
　　
　　重点关注事件/数据描述：本周，多位美联储人员将接连发表讲话，另外欧美多国制造业PMI等数据也将出炉。不过，市场的注意力将聚焦在本周的后半周——周四凌晨将公布备受瞩目的美联储决议纪要，而周五欧央行的新行长将发表讲话。

　　

Analysis of the latest trend of gold:
　　
Last Friday(11month15day)，国际金价重新转跌，有望终极日线三连阳进程，因贸.易前景重新好转预期刺激市场风险偏好，亚洲股市上涨，侵蚀了黄金的避.险吸引力。美元指数持稳，亦让金价承压。投资者现在等待美国今日稍晚公布10月零售销售和工业生产数据。有调查显示，尽管市场对美国经济衰退的担忧有所缓解，但预期短时间内不太可能走强。刚刚过去的一周，受避险情绪提振，现货黄金前半周震荡上扬，在周二触及逾三个月低点1445.50美元后持续攀升，持续攻克1450、1460as well as1470三大关口，最高触及1474美元，不过周五回落至1470下方，本周仍以上涨做收。
　　
　　现货黄金从技术面来看，日线图MACD死叉，均线交织，短线走势变数较大；留意1462-1479区域的突破情况，分别是5Daily moving average support and100日均线阻力。若强势顶破100Daily moving average1479.27附近阻力，则增加后市看涨信号，进一步阻力参考20Daily moving average1484.99Location,11month6Resistance to daily highs1494.26附近。鼎缘认为在顶破100日均线前，后市下行风险仍存，若下破5Daily moving average1462.47附近支撑，则金价可能会再次试探本周低点1445.70附近支撑。短线的话，10month1Daily low point1459.14位置、周三低点1455.94附近也分别存在一些支撑。
　　
　　现货黄金短线4小时金价在布林线上轨和短线跌势的38.2%回撤位的双重阻力附近遇阻，KDJDead fork,K线相对高位类似“黄昏之星”，短线偏向试探布林线中1462.08附近支撑，若失守该支撑，则可能会重新试探布林线下轨1450.53附近支撑。由于MACD金叉信号仍在，布林线轻微开口，若再次顶破38.2%Retreat position1472.68附近阻力，则增加短线看涨信号，进一步阻力在50%Retreat position1481.01附近。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上李鼎缘个人建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1474-1476Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1460-1462Frontline support.
　　
　　黄金最新可参考操作策略：
　　
　　1The rebound above the gold does not break1474-1476Short on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1464-1466frontline;
　　
　　2The pullback below the gold does not break1460-1462Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1468-1470frontline;
　　
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How to invest in gold steadily:
　　
The ups and downs of the market sometimes have traces to follow, and sometimes they are unfounded. The standard for deciding whether to participate in the market is whether to find sufficient reasons to persuade oneself through one's own trading system, and these reasons are the necessary adjustments in the trading system to determine a complete set of transactions-Position holding-adjustment-defense-The goal "is indispensable, and blind rampage will only make one's trading disorderly, and everyone can accept unclear profits. However, only traders who can summarize clear losses can go further! Investment is a balanced art. Only by understanding trade-offs and trade-offs can one be considered mature and not burdened by stubbornness. Investors who are still confused about it should not worry.
　　
If you can find me, I can help you:
　　
When the market is in a strong uptrend and sometimes rapidly falling, you cannot control the direction of the market. The only thing we can do is to keep the principal. When the market is uncertain, we can take our positions out of the market and wait and see. There is no need to waste our energy on unclear actions. Is the market up or down? The most important thing to worry about is what measures you will take to respond to market changes, how much profit you can make when you are right, and how much you can avoid when you are wrong. I hope Li Dingyuan's article can bring you small gains.

　　

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