MBG Markets：新西兰联储助力纽元，美国通胀数据“虚假繁荣”

　　
新西兰联储按兵不动，纽元录得近百点拉升(NZD/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:纽元兑美元上一交易日震幅达90Individual points, closing up1.23%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5趋于走高，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to58-59一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方关注0.6450Follow support below0.6330。
　　
Fundamentals:新西兰联储宣布维持利率水平在1%不变，声明中称，之前采取的降息行动需要时间来完全发挥效用；此前的降息正在传导至经济；纽元走低有助于抵消全球环境疲软的影响。消息发布后，纽元短线拉升近百点。凯投宏观评估认为，新西兰联储表态审慎，但对新西兰的经济前景依然“过于乐观”，预计明年新西兰GDP增长放缓至1.5%，远低于该联储2.5%的预期；低GDP增速将导致通胀低于联储目标中位，并推升失业率在明年年中升至4.7%。
　　
欧元区工业产出稍振，美国通胀数据“虚假繁荣”(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar25Points, closing down0.02%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin middle track tends to decline, and the exchange rate is close to the Bolin lower track; Daily lineMA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5稍趋走平，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to38-39Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1.1045Below support attention1.0990。
　　
Fundamentals:eurozone9月工业产出月率增长0.1%，显著优于预期-0.3%，稍稍缓解了市场对于欧元区制造业的担忧情绪。美国10Monthly overallCPIrise0.4%, creating8个月来最大单月涨幅。但汽油价格上涨3.7%对该数据构成提振，而剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分后，10Monthly CoreCPIThe increase is only0.2%，这表明，尽管基本趋势与美联储近几个月的目标一致，但目前的水平仍不足以显著改变其前景。
　　
澳元低位承压，前景遭机构看空(AUD/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:澳元兑美元上一交易日震幅达36Points, closing down0.04%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin middle track tends to decline, and the exchange rate is close to the Bolin lower track; Daily lineMA5,10构死叉，MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to46-47一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注中轨位置，下方支撑关注0.6808。
　　
Fundamentals:澳新银行评估认为：澳洲联储可能会进一步放宽政策来解决经济中的空余产能问题；市场定价机制显示，在接下来十二个月中，澳洲联储降息一次的可能性为65%，认为市场很容易受到澳洲联储维持鸽派的影响，持续预计澳元将在2020年初创下新低。从外部因素来看，全球贸易紧张局势降温，市场对全球经济增速的信心有所增强；从内部因素来看，澳大利亚消费者和企业信心对刺激政策的反应都令人失望。
　　
　　
　　
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