张晨雷11.12黄金原油最新多空趋势解析及黄金多单解套操作策略

　　投资本身没有风险，失控的投资才有风险，不要用你的侥幸去挑战行情，运气这东西是有，碰上一次别再去奢望第二次，学会止损，千万别和亏损谈恋爱，止损远比盈利重要，因为任何时候保本都是第 一位的，盈利是第二位的；止损的最终目的是保存实力，提高资金利用率和效率，避免小错铸成大错，甚至导致全军覆没，止损不能规避风险，但可以避免遭到更大的意外风险，所以止损技巧是每个投资者都应该掌握的提示，止损就是投资的生命线，不要因小失大最后得不偿失，记住一句话，当你真正懂得如何去控制风险才是你扭亏为盈的时候。
　　
SpotgoldMonday（11month11日）继续大幅下跌，美市盘中最低下探至1447.89dollar/Ounces, gold price has fallen below1450关口，进一步考验1440关口；日内无重大数据公布。周末亚太地区地缘正治有所升温，避险需求有所回升对黄金形成一定支撑，但支撑作用转瞬即逝，黄金再度遭到大幅抛售，数据显示，COMEXMost Active GoldfuturesContract Beijing Time11month11day23:10-23:12三分钟内买卖盘面成交10436Hand, total contract value exceeds15USD100mn
　　
　　张晨雷认为：趋势指向下行，新闻和观点毫无价值。金属价格正在下跌，在反弹之前应该会达到我们的下跌目标。我们预计会出现几次大的抛售，但最终可能会出现我们尚未看到的恐慌性底部。强劲的初请失业金数据进一步证实了美国就业市场的强劲，这无疑令美元多头备受鼓舞，黄金因而遭受进一步打击。对于黄金接下来走势，金价跌向1450dollar/盎司，可能被视为买入良机。近期金价最大的下行风险是进展。近期黄金可能在区间盘整，因场外的投资者在观望等待好的买入机会。1450dollar/盎司对黄金而言是一个关键的位置，在该位置下方是200日移动均线，如果跌破该位置可能会改变黄金整体上涨的结构。黄金市场目前很大程度上受到市场避险需求的支撑，但一旦市场意识到衰退的风险并没有那么大，黄金会遭遇更大抛售，这一点也需要投资者谨慎对待；
　　
　　————国际黄金行情走势分析
　　
　　技术面上，日线方面，经过周三盘的小阳修正后，昨日日线再次录得一根实体大阴，价格也随之运行布林下轨下方，而受此带动，目前5日均线已经向下延伸至1483Nearby,10日均线则与30日均线，还有布林中轨于1493附近呈现三重压制，再加之其它各周期指标维持空头排列，布林带整体加剧向下运行，种种迹象理应有利空头继续延伸，但值得注意的是，现在sto双线中的快线已经在超卖区出现向上拐头的迹象，若慢线无法进入超卖区与快线粘合运行，那么就有必要提防行情出现一波超跌反弹走势，而一旦出现，就有可能带动RSIIndicator on30轴附近向上拐头给予多头动能，所以，日线整体看空的同时，也要做好行情反弹的准备。
　　
From4小时来看，虽然受1455支撑影响，目前金价反弹至1462一带盘整，但由于短期均线随着跌势分别延伸到1466and1473形成短期阻力，其它各周期指标保持空头排列，布林带整体急剧向下运行，再加之sto双线上行势能欠缺，且有意再度结成死叉，RSI指标运行30轴下方，无意向上放量，所以，4小时级别整体还是属于空头占据优势。综合上述观点，今日操作建议继续保持高空思路，上方先留意1473-1483区域，此处作为前期小区间的支撑位，现在已经成为反向阻力，只要金价保持之下运行，可期空头下破1455并进行延伸，若被多头收复，行情则继续震荡，不过，在下移强压1497-1500一线未破之前，仍属于空头强势期。对于支撑，万.杰认为在金价无法上破第一道阻力的情况下，应该去关注1450一带了，如果今日空头得到延续，那么必将提高下破1455，且试探1450的概率加大，后市黄金将回到1400美元关口。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上张晨雷个人建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1468-1470Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1444-1446Frontline support.
　　
　　黄金可参考建议：
　　
　　1Suggestions1467Close in, stop loss1472, Objective1460-1457；
　　
　　2Suggestions1450Close in, stop loss1445, Objective1458-1462；
　　
　　3、若有不懂或跟不上操作的朋友可关注张晨雷レ，亻言：zc4867Get more real-time guidance.
　　
————Internationalcrude oilMarket trend analysis
　　
Crude oilOPEC石油产量从十年来的最低点跃升、加上市场对全球经济增速放缓的担忧挥之不去，仍令多头有所顾忌，而且目前市场对OPEC进一步减产的预期有所降温，此外国际经贸局势的乐观预期有所消退，美国stock market index期货和多数亚洲股市走弱，也对油价有些拖累，短线油价的下行风险有所增加；不过投资者还需对国际经贸局势保持关注，本周对三大能源机构的原油市场月度报告也需要予以留意。
　　
Looking at the daily chart, it fluctuates and rises;K线在相对高位出现类似“上吊线”的顶部信号，KDJ在接近超买区域有死叉趋势，短线油价面临见顶风险，继续关注100Daily moving average56.02附近支撑，若失守该支撑，则增加短线下行风险，20The daily moving average is supported by55.40附近，上涨通道下轨支撑目前在54.75附近，若下破该支撑，则增加中线下行风险。上方继续关注200Daily moving average57.35附近阻力，若顶破该阻力，则增加短线看涨信号；进一步阻力在上周高点57.88Nearby,61.8%Resistance to retreat position58.55Nearby, strong resistance9month19Daily high point59.49附近。此外，过去一周，油价在55.76-57.88区域震荡，该区域的突破情况也可以为后市走势提供参考。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上张晨雷个人建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注58.0-58.2Frontline resistance, short-term focus below55.5-55.7Frontline support.
　　
　　原油可参考建议
　　
　　1Suggestions57.5-57.8Short on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target57.0-56.7frontline;
　　
　　2Suggestions56.0-56.3Long on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target57.0-57.2frontline;
　　
　　3、行情千变万化、点位仅供参考，投资有风险、入市需谨慎，详情关注张晨雷本人官||Wei:zc4867
　　
　　————晨雷寄语
　　
Covering orders is a bad habit, it's a disease, it needs to be treated! Strictly follow the operating discipline when making orders, follow the trend, and enter with a stop loss! Leave the wrong order in a timely manner to prevent repeated mistakes! After being covered, don't panic and lose your composure. You must adjust your mindset, as it is crucial at this time. The road to investment is long, we need to learn to be indifferent. The market is often filled with contradictions between technology and news, requiring less talk and more listening. No matter how hard you put in today, tomorrow's fallen leaves will still drift down. The market is inherently unpredictable, and impermanence is a norm in the capital market. Learn to get used to it.KThe rise and fall of the line quickly pass by with the ticking sound of the clock. You are not Superman, you will be tired, you will feel pain, you will cry, you will be sad, you will be helpless, you will be powerless. But you need to understand yourself like this. Don't be too demanding, let alone compromise easily. Work harder, plan and do transactions step by step, live up to your true colors, and believe that there will always be a gust of wind that blows away all your troubles. People with multiple hearts are destined to live hard because they are too easily influenced by the emotions brought by the market.
　　
Don't always think that the market has let you down. In this market, no one lives easier than anyone else. Trading is simple but charming;Often, many market trends are like this, and when you deliberately pursue them, they will run very fast;When you abandon superficial mundane thoughts, focus on executing every market trend for strategy and planning, some profits can be easily obtained. Wherever your attention is, the results are there. The more you express, the less you lack. When your mindset and execution continue to improve, money is just a gift. Attitude determines hardship and joy, concept determines success and failure, and the simpler a person is, the more peaceful their trading becomes. Many times, you would rather be killed in battle against the tide than reflect on yourself. A drop of ink can stain a glass of water, but it is difficult to muddy a river because a generous heart can accommodate it;One sentence can ruin a temporary mood, but it is difficult to determine a person's life, because fate is in one's own hands;An accident can make your footsteps heavy and difficult to erode your persistent pursuit, because you are "alive" in the market, and because you are strong, the road is ahead. Don't easily stop walking.
　　
Note: The above analysis is for reference only, and the market is constantly changing. When making an order, be sure to bring a stop loss! Investment carries risks, so be cautious when entering the industry!
　　
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