Zhang Benxin11.6黄金空头占主导，原油回撤继续多

　　------Message surface


Tuesday(11month5day)受贸易乐观情绪和良好的经济数据影响，美元指数大幅飙升，盘中一度触及98关口，避.险货币日元和瑞郎连续第二日下跌。金价重挫，现货goldOnce fell more than2%, refresh10month16Since the low point of the day1479.5美元，贸易磋商取得进展的希望和乐观的经济数据重燃了人们对全球经济前景的乐观情绪，推高美元指数和国债收益率。美元走势也受到提振，此前发布的美国10monthISM非制造业数据好于预期后，进一步打压了金价。本鑫认为，中美两国围绕贸.易摩擦的分歧缩小，第一阶段协议将标志着朝最终达成全面协议迈出第一步，这促使投资者抛售黄金多头仓位。张本鑫认为，推动金价下跌的是利率升高，美元上涨以及过去几天明显的风险偏好。


　　周二，截止收盘，WTI12monthcrude oilfuturesIncome increase0.69USD, increase1.22%Report57.23dollar/Bucket. Brent1Monthly crude oil futures up0.83USD, increase1.34%Report62.96dollar/桶。当前，需求因素呈现转暖迹象，这在一定程度上抵消了沙特难以推进进一步减产的影响。不过，随着近期俄罗斯表示没有必要进一步深化减产，且此前沙特非正式邀请巴西加入OPEC，但是巴西方面给出的预估是未来10年仍有24010000 barrels/日的增产空间。同时此前一份数据显示，OPEC需要额外的5010000 barrels/日的减产幅度才足以维持当前的减产目标。因此沙特减产的压力不断加大，对于沙特阿美估值不及预期，实际上已经暗示沙特正在逐步放弃原油的价格目标。

　　------Gold trend analysis



　　4小时来看价格已经直接破位中轨，而且下轨也是一次性的跌破，目前布林带上轨下压，中轨开口向下绿色能量持续放大短期很弱，1小时来看价格给到1480Afterwards,MACD绿色能量柱缩短短期有止跌反弹的需求，


　　黄金昨日呈现单边走势，没有丝毫的反弹，并且下方最低触及1479，单边下行近30美金。今天的话，其实黄金跌破1503后方向就已经很明确了，但是可能很多人认为跌的太多了，会出现超跌反弹的现象，所以会出现看多的情况，但是我认为日线大阴，下影线如此短的情况下，反弹的力度不会太大，前期探底回升的2stripk线的实体部分将会是反弹的最高点，也就是1488附近，这也是前期区间转换的分界点。所以今日见此位置可以空单进场，把止损放大一点，放到1495，如果亚欧盘慢涨的话，继续补仓。但是不管如何，到了止损点，该止损就止损，避免行情超出意外而越套越深。


　　黄金价格目前首次破触及0,5perhaps618位置反弹的概率较大，而且价格的下跌是属于美盘前的下跌，此时间段行情走反复的概率较大。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上张本鑫个人建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，

　　------Analysis of crude oil trend



　　从日线上看，原油经过上周的倒V大周期回撤调整后，展开连阳反弹，上周五大阳拉升，本周初，开盘即跌，随后上涨，上演探底回升，冲高回落，日线收得小阳十字星，目前均线即将走出多头趋势，整体看涨不变；从4小时上看，原油同上周，隔日创57.39新高后转为震荡，震荡完毕后将有大概率可能继续走高，当前布林带处于开口期，MA均线走出双金叉形态，KDJThe three lines of random indicators are downward,MACD指标顶背离，快慢线平行向前。目前油价陷入震荡，有短期回撤需求，但整体依旧看涨。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上张本鑫个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注57.8-58.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below56.3-56.5Frontline support.


　　昨日的走势和预料的一样，多单成功止盈，上方最高到了57.5附近，目前正在回撤当中，而早间的api利空，在一定的程度上上将决定今天白天的走势，多头的原油在api利空的作用下，可能暂缓，日内可能会先跌后涨，至于数据后的走势再另说，但是如果数据一旦利多，那么多单以跟进去看到57.5，利空的话，到时候再说。日内的话，建议56.3-56.5Multiple entry nearby, target56.8-57附近即可，止损56。

　　------关于解套策略



　　1Long term unwinding. Investors who have identified a major trend (such as a bullish market) and placed their orders in a minor trend (a downward trend in the market) can first stop losing and then enter at a lower price to earn a price difference. This can also earn profits from the major trend and reduce the risk of short positions caused by the minor trend.


　　2Short line unwinding. If investors make a complete mistake in their judgment of the market, they should decisively close their positions to avoid further unilateral price fluctuations and greater losses. The longer short-term investors hold in a unilateral market, the greater the losses they will incur.


　　3Light position unwinding (also applicable to investors with large funds). That is, as the decline in the price increases, it increases the buying price and uses idle funds to lower costs, waiting for the price to rebound. Its advantage is that no matter how deep it is nested, as long as it is operated properly, it can be unlocked once there is a rebound.


　　4, band unpacking. This method is suitable for various market stages of hedging, especially for volatile markets, mainly relying on the fluctuation of stock prices and utilizing the fluctuation price difference to unwind. The concept of this method is to buy low and sell high, sell high and buy low, gradually reducing costs and reducing losses. Its advantage lies in the variety of operating techniques, which are not limited to a single pattern, actively attacking, and if operated properly, the release speed is fast. The disadvantage lies in the high demand for personal time, energy, and ability, frequent operation with certain cost pressure, and improper operation can easily cause greater losses. We need professional knowledge and guidance with time, energy, and skills.


　　千万人的港口一杯酒的挽留、数万人的等待一句话的突破，就算疲惫不堪还要继续拥抱明天，你不能做我的客，正如我不能做你的师，今日的执着，会造成明日的后悔。有人为抓住的行情庆祝，有人为做错行情懊悔。你在，我在，你不在，我还在！


May you and I start with words and match our personalities,Trapped in technology, long after kindness, finally character.


Wen/Zhang Benxin (official WeChat account)ttdxyna6）