Wei Liangchen:10.30美联储这次将预计降息25个基点！那么黄金会涨到1520Is it?

10.30美联储这次将预计降息25个基点！那么goldIt will rise to1520Is it?


10month29日，现货黄金连续两个交易日下滑，最后收跌0.32%Report1487.72dollar/ounce.10month30日亚市早盘，现货黄金维持疲软态势。



人们普遍预计美联储这次将降息25个基点，目前CME的美联储观察工具显示，美联储周四降息的概率高达97.3%，该数据高于昨天预测的95.1%，也高于上周预测的94.1%。目前市场已经基本消化美联储的降息预期。


澳大利亚国民银行经济学家莎玛(JohnSharma)表示，市场所有目光都聚焦在本周的美联储会议上，投资者们真正关心的是美联储是否会给出今年余下时间持续鸽派的信号。


黄金分析师瓦格纳表示，投资者和分析师将关注美联储此次声明的两大要点和主席鲍威尔的评论。第一个也是最重要的要点是，美联储官员是否投票决定降息。第二，他们将寻找美联储计划中当前货币政策和刺激措施的迹象。此外，投资者将更关注国际贸易局势的发展情况。他认为，这三个基本面因素将深刻影响，并塑造未来避险资产的市场情绪。


金价未来很可能继续上涨，不仅仅是因为美联储降息，还因为全球地缘政治局势可能再次令人感到担忧。


此外，丹斯克银行预计，美国10After the adjustment of the rose season, the non-agricultural employment population only increased5万人。疲软的非农数据可能增强美联储未来降息预期，从而提振金价，投资者对此也需保持关注。



Gold trend analysis


昨日，黄金最高涨至1494一线开始回落，最低跌至1483一线，整体来说，黄金多空波动不大。从整体情况来看，黄金多头失守千五大关和1490关口后，多头动力缺乏，而空头虽然没有延续跌破1480-1476，但是整体还是占据着优势，有进一步向1450发起冲击的动力。而今日的话，美联储利率纪要以及鲍威尔讲话将要爆发，对此，各位还是谨慎对待；


技术面来看，日线M5The moving average is at1496附近形成*，对此，各位首先关注此*能否有效。其次的话，则是关注千五关口的得失情况。如果黄金重返千五之上，那么无疑会再度向1510-1520发起冲击。而支撑而言，各位只需关注1482附近支撑情况以及1480关口得失即可，破位进一步关注1476前期低点以及1470关口支撑。对于今日而言，依旧保持看空思路不变，但是考虑到机构砸盘的情况，并不排除黄金会反弹走高一波千五之上，但是，笔者上方也说了1520之下坚定看空即可，对此，各位任意时段在黄金反弹1500-1510-1520附近时，皆可分批布局中长线空单，目标则是1480-1460，如果进一步破位1460，各位则继续下看1450-1420-1400即可。对于今日，重点关注消息面的情况即可，切记严格把控仓位以及止损。


Golden Operation Strategy:


1Gold rebound1495-1500分破做空，止损4Points, target1480-1470。


2Gold falling back1482-1480Long nearby, stop loss4Points, target1495-1500Near.


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