Ling Jiayan:10.28上周黄金冲高回落、本周依旧看多

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Ling Jiayan:10.28last weekgold冲高回落、本周依旧看多


投资故事（一）：记得猴子掰玉米的故事，说一只小猴子下山去玩，见到一片玉米地，长了好多好多玉米棒子，它掰了一只，准备带回山里，好在小动物面前炫耀。再往前走，又看到一块西瓜地，长满了又大又圆的西瓜，小猴子看到一只小兔子跑来了，它又赶紧丢了西瓜去追兔子，没想到兔子跑得快，一眨眼，跑到树林里看不见了。结果忙了一天，小猴子什么也没有得到。天快黑了，小猴子只好两手空空地走了。







投资故事（二）：发生在云南的某个地方，当地猎人通常制作一个比较沉的木箱，再在木箱上开一个刚好能让猴子伸进手的小洞，然后在木箱里装一只桃子，放在猴子经常出没的地方。如果有猴子把手伸进木箱去，那么它就跑不掉了，原因就在于猴子把手伸进木箱抓住桃子后就拿不出来了，因为洞不够大。奇怪的是，即便猴子看到猎人过来，也不会放手，眼睁睁地被猎人捉住。其实，只要放下桃子，就可以轻易脱身，但几乎没有一只猴子舍得放下即将到手的美食。


Gold trend analysis


上周，黄金没有让人失望，经过长达半个月的震荡，终于选择向上突破，而这波突破并没有从指间溜走，而是牢牢的握住了一把单边的火，当所有人都开始习惯了震荡吗，见到高位就想着空的时候，单边已经在悄悄靠近，行情养的人们认为不带止损依然很幸福的时候，就是有人该付出代价的时候，而1498的破位以及下行趋势线的破位，标志着黄金调整的结束，至少会变换一个节奏运行，而日K经过时间修正也具备了再次冲击的动能，大方向依然是多头的优势，雨季在逐渐消散。


今日，黄金冲高回落之后虽然小周期形态上形成一个倒V但是，空间结构并没有被打破，1480上涨以来回撤一半的位置没有破位，价格依然有继续上攻的潜质，而今天的关键位置在1498，只要价格依然运行在1498上方运行，那么短期内还有继续向上的需求，思路依然是低多不变，不能被周五的冲高回落吓住，毕竟结构没有改变。


黄金如图，可以看到1498依然是日内的关键位置，即是回撤百分之50的位置，也是结构上顶底转换的支撑共振，而上方阻力依然是1518水平压力高点一带，周五价格回落通常比较正常，为了避免周末发生不确定性时间，短线交易者，都不会选择持仓过夜，多头的逃离价格的回落，而周一通常会比较清淡，1498的位置已经锁定，就耐心等待，除非日内走强到了晚间依然抗跌，再考虑去激进进场，目前太多必要在亚盘急着拼杀。


Gold operation suggestions


黄金回撤1498-1499做多，损在1493, look at the goal1508。



The most direct reason for frequent losses caused by gold being trapped


1.Likes to buy at the bottom but doesn't know how to buy at the bottom, especially at historically low prices. Seeing that my own costs are lower than others, my heart is filled with joy. But I didn't expect that since the price has hit a historic low, there may be many new lows to come. It was supposed to be the market's last chance for you to make an appearance, but you went against the trend and even had your account funds cut in half within a week. I don't know how to copy the bottom and end up copying myself.


2.Not willing to stop loss: There are actually many articles related to this issue online, and talking too much doesn't make much sense. It can only be said that if you lose more, you will know the importance of stop loss. Some retail investors see that after a stop loss, the gold price rises again within a few days. "Next time, they will have a lucky mentality and stop cutting losses, which is obviously not feasible." Cut off losses and let profits run "is a wise saying. But then again, if you don't have your own profit model, your outcome is to buy, stop loss, buy again and stop loss, which is meaningless, and eventually slowly grind down your capital.



3.Don't dare to chase high: Many retail investors have a fear of heights, thinking that once the gold price rises, they will be trapped in chasing after it. What should they do? Perhaps you think this is chasing the rise and killing the fall, but I can tell you that the trend of the market is not directly related to the high or low price of gold. The key to whether to chase after the rise and kill the fall lies in looking at the "trend", which is precisely because our retail investors do not have enough control over the trend, so they mistakenly think that chasing after the rise and killing the fall. The safety of intervening after the formation of an upward trend is very high, and in the short term, there is actually a lot of profit. The core issue is how to determine whether the upward trend has formed, which has different standards in different market environments. If you lack the ability to control trends, it is recommended that you do not blindly operate alone. Learning or teacher guidance are both good choices.


4.Countering the trend and resisting orders: Operation against the market-If the direction is reversed, resist; Resisting losses intensifies; If it really doesn't work, stop loss; The direction of the stop loss has returned, or when the market rises, it falls; when buying, it rises, and it can never keep up with the rhythm.



5.Frequent operation: Frequent operation-无论单子理不理想，“负责任”的老师一个劲儿的给你做思想工作，说什么这个单子必赚无疑，不甘心的你听之任之，结果亏得灰头土脸，“不负责任”的老师可能找各种借口不给实时指导，给个区间让你来回操作即可，这我就搞不懂了，仓位是自己的，自己不知道控制？难道要等到爆仓才幻想着有没有后悔药吃？


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