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北京时间下周四(10month31day)02:00,美联储将公布利率决议;随后在02:30Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference.10month24日,高盛预测美联储这次可能实行降息。此外,美联储声明可能做出两大调整:表明此次降息完成鲍威尔所说的“周期中调整”,并且取消“将酌情采取行动维持经济扩张”的关键措辞。市场普遍预计,FOMC将在下周会议上降息25个基点,使基金利率目标区间降至1.5%-1.75%。高盛也同意这一观点,认为美联储下周降息的概率高达95%。 尽管因经济增长预估黯淡,燃料需求的担忧重燃,令国际油价回落。但油价已录得连续三个交易日上涨,布油升至61dollar/桶上方,因美国crude oil库存意外下降,及OPEC+采取进一步行动支撑市场的前景。OPEC官员表示延,长减产是抵销2020yearOPEC原油需求前景疲弱的一个选项,产油国将于12month5-6日举行会议检讨该计划。
goldTrend analysis:
美国耐用品订单数据差于预期,强化了美联储下周的降息预期,欧洲央行行长德拉基也对欧元区经济做出悲观评估,英国脱欧局势的不确定性也有所增加,这些帮助金价初步顶破千五关口;技术面短线看涨信号增加;但还需留意国际经贸局势的相关消息和股市的表现。
日线来看,震荡;金价初步顶破了布林线中轨1497.74Nearby resistance,KDJGolden fork operation,MACD也初步形成金叉,鸿ㅣ金认为若能守住布林线中轨,后市有望进一步上探布林线上轨1524.13附近阻力;当然,10month3Daily high point1519.65附近也存在一些阻力。不过,如果金价回落至布林线中轨1497.74下方,则金价仍可能维持震荡走势,之后才能选择进一步的方向。
4小时来看,震荡上涨;MACDGolden fork,KDJ金叉,布林线轨道开口,在失守1497.45前,短线偏向多头,进一步阻力在1511.47Nearby, then1519.65附近阻力。当然,目前1497.45已结转化为支撑位所在,金价短线也可能会该位置进行回踩确认,关注3268735920若失守该支撑并回落至布林线中轨1491.91下方,则削弱短线看涨信号;综合来看,今日操作思路上周鸿金个人建议低多为主,高空为辅;
上方关注阻力:1511.47;1519.65;1524.30;
Pay attention to support below:1500;1497.45;1491.91;
Suggestions for Gold Operations:
1Callback1497Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1508-1510;
2Rebound1511Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1500-1498;
盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准,添加薇-Core:zh66646获取实时策略及免费解ㄒ。
Analysis of crude oil trend:
尽管此前美国EIA原油库存意外下降等利好给油价提供支撑,但欧美经济数据表现较差,令多头有所顾忌;短线油价上涨动能有所减弱,后市存在重回跌势的风险;但投资者还需留意国际经贸局势的相关消息。
日线来看,震荡下跌后反弹;MACDGolden fork,KDJ金叉,尽管上一交易日录得十字星,但油价仍初步站稳在100日均线和前期跌势的38.2%回撤位上方,短线仍有机会进一步试探200Daily moving average57.17附近阻力,也是50%回撤位阻力附近,鸿ㅣ金认为若进一步上破,则看向61.8%Retreat position58.65Nearby. Attention below5Daily moving average55.18附近支撑,若回落至该位置下方,则削弱短线看涨信号;10The daily moving average is supported by54.30Nearby,20The daily moving average is supported by53.79附近,若进一步回落至该位置下方,则增加后市看空信号。
4小时来看,震荡上涨;油价在56.51附近遭遇阻力,K线录得吞没看空信号,KDJDead fork,MACD红色柱萎缩,短线油价面临一定的回调风险,初步支撑在55.41附近,较强的支撑在前期震荡区域顶部54.93附近,目前还不能排除油价对该支撑进行回踩确认的可能性。若失守54.93附近支撑,则增加短线下行风险。上方较强的阻力在56.84Nearby, due toMACD金叉信号仍在,关注3268735920若强势顶破该阻力,则有望打开进一步上涨空间。综合来看,短线走势变数增加,可能会在54.93-56.84区域震荡;失守55.41前,偏向震荡上攻;所以今日操作思路上周鸿金个人建议低多为主,高空为辅;
上方关注阻力:56.84;57.17;58.65;
Pay attention to support below:55.41;54.93;54.40;
Suggestions for crude oil operation:
1Callback55.4Do not break long, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target56.6-56.8;
2Rebound56.8Stop loss without breaking short0.5US dollars, look at the target55.6-55.4;
盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准,添加薇-Core:zh66646获取实时策略及免费解ㄒ。
1Special reminder: Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and waiting patiently for the best opportunity to sell, and avoiding frequent trading is one of the recognized winning secrets. Do not attempt to seize all fluctuations, nor expect to grasp every segment of the market. Judging the market situation is only a part of trading. Investors also need to have a reverence for the market, remember trading discipline, and strictly control their positions to reduce greed, overcome fear, and try to maintain a calm mind when trading.
2Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
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