Duan Haoyu:10.16"Terrorist data" from the United States hits in the evening, with gold falling first and then rising!

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Duan Haoyu:10.16"Terrorist data" from the United States strikes in the evening,goldShort first, then rise!


The arrival of "terrorist data" in the United States tonight may trigger a new storm


Wednesday Beijing Time20:30The United States will announce9The monthly retail sales data is the heaviest economic data of the week. Media surveys show that the United States9Monthly retail sales growth expected0.3%Last month was an increase0.4%。9Monthly core retail sales expected to increase0.3%Last month, it remained unchanged.

Analysts point out that if US retail sales data perform weakly, it may increase the expectation of the Federal Reserve taking aggressive easing actions, which will be unfavorable for the US dollar trend, and gold is expected to benefit. On the other hand, if US retail sales data exceeds expectations, it may further lower the Federal Reserve10The possibility of a monthly interest rate cut will boost the US dollar and further hit gold prices.


As of Tuesday, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME)ofFedWatchThe data shows that,10Monthly interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is72.7%And last week, this probability reached87%。


Recently, with lukewarm US economic data and the possibility of a breakthrough in the long-standing trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, the stimulus fund has recently sold some of its long positions in the US dollar, putting pressure on the US dollar.


Duan Haoyu believes that the views of bond traders on the future policy path of the Federal Reserve are not radical enough. It is expected that the slowdown in global growth and the deep-rooted trade tensions between China and the United States will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice more this year. Compared tofuturesThe market shows that another interest rate cut before the end of the year is about28His view is even more radical with an expectation of one basis point.


Today's European Gold Strategy


From a daily perspective,continuity2The impact on the Bollinger Belt's mid rail in several trading days has not been successful, and currentlyMA5Mean Square andMA10The moving average is still a dead cross downward, and there are signs of an opening in the lower track of the Bollinger Bands, butMACDThe weak energy pillar is shrinking, so whether gold will truly fall depends on the trend of gold during the day. If it breaks above the limitMA5Moving average resistance point1488The US dollar, so there is still a chance for bulls to rise. If they break the low point again within the day, it will be difficult to have a big rebound; Follow Duan Haoyu's reputationdhy776Keep up with market information and grasp major trends to help you make steady profits!


from4From an hourly perspective, it has now emerged from a double dead cross pattern, butKIt has already fallen to the lower track of the Bollinger Bands, and there is currently a slight step backMA5average1484The signs of. Continuous multiple hourly linesKAt first, there was no fluctuation, but the morning opening slightly rose, leading to the intention of forming a double golden cross for the hourly line to rise. In terms of operation, European gold was1480Long positions in first tier light positions.

Suggestions for evening gold operations:


1Falling back1480Go long, defend1476, look at the goal1488, breaking through can continue to be seen;


2Rebound1488Short selling, defense1492Take a look at the target1478frontline.


Voice of actual warehouse customers


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Author of this article: Duan Haoyu [reprinted, please indicate source]


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