10.5现货黄金原油下周一走势分析及操作建议

        What are the recent news impactsgoldcrude oiltrend


        U.S.A9Monthly increase in non agricultural employment population13.60万，不及预期的14.50万，但前值从13万上修为16.8Ten thousand. U.S.A9月平均小时工资年率实际录得2.90%，较前值和预期值大幅下降0.3个百分点；美国9月失业率创1969年以来最低记录的3.50%，较前值和预期值下降0.2个百分点。美国劳工部表示，过去三个月，平均新增非农就业人数为15.7Ten thousand.9月专业、商业服务、医疗保健就业人数录得增加。非农发布后，联邦基金利率futures显示对2019年政策宽松的押注几乎未变。美国9月季调后非农就业报告，缓解了金融市场对经济放缓至衰退边缘的担忧。平均时薪增速保持不变，制造业就业人数为六个月来首次下降，零售业继续裁员。尽管如此，经济学家预计，鉴于贸易政策的不确定性，美联储年内至少再降息一次。

        US Energy Information Administration(EIA)最新产量数据显示，受钻井数持续减少的影响，美国7月原油产量减少至118110000 barrels/日，从4月的纪录高位121310000 barrels/日继续下滑。EIA之前曾预测称，2019年美国原油产量料将增至123610000 barrels/日，这将远超2018年日均1096万桶的年度纪录。认为2019年美国石油活跃钻井数将录得三年来首次下跌。相关数据显示，美国石油活跃钻井数2018年共增加138Seat,2017年共增加222座，而2016年则减少11Seat.


        彭氏解盘认为：最新的就业数据“并不十分令人震惊”，不会强化美联储在本月会议上降息的动机。数据“支持美元，对美联储而言相对中性。对先前非农就业数据的修正看起来不错，并且数据“实际上比预期要好，尤其是之前的ADP数据发布之后”。虽然数据打压了“美元即将下行”的观点，但也没有强劲到足以推动美元回到近期高点。这种数据不足以让人确信会促使美联储在10Monthly interest rate reduction25个基点，美联储仍然不得不更深入地研究以证明降息的合理性。


     Friends who have just entered the gold market may not be able to obtain gold due to work, life, and other issuesThe first news or information in the international market is a great challenge for us to invest in gold. Therefore, Peng Shi welcomes investment friends to come to me for communication and progress together, so that everyone can know the international market trends at any time and make the most stable orders.

10.7Spot gold基本面及技术面分析

　　
   现货黄金日线来看，虽为三连阳，可昨日却收出长上影线形态，这说明多头遇到的压制越来越强，而尾盘金价回落到1512之下，更是表明行情存在诱多行为，或许目前5Daily moving average at1493附近呈上扬形态有利多头，但10日均线依旧保持下行，其它各周期指标也未形成多头排列，加之布林带整体向上力度不强，KDJ死叉，随机指标温和走高，中的快线率先触及80轴后，向下拐头意愿强烈，MACD背离死叉，绿色能量柱缩量，指标则继续维持下行放量形态，所以，日线整体可期支撑下破且延伸。

　　Spot gold4小时来看，自周二盘金价反弹以来，一直处于短期均线上方运行，并带动短期均线向上延伸，当前分别于1504and1508构成短期支撑，按理说应当在支撑之上顺势看涨，但是，通过仔细观察可以发现，目前短期均线有向下拐头的迹象，其它各周期指标也存在转向空头排列的意愿，再加之布林带整体上行势能衰竭，MACD金叉，红色能量柱缩减KDJ死叉，随机指标向下放量明显，因此4小时级别整体应看冲高回落走势。

       综合来看，下周一操作思路上彭氏解盘个人建议回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注1515-1517Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1494-1496Frontline support.

Reference suggestion 1:Bounce to1515-1517Short on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1508-1510frontline



Suggestion 2:Callback to1494-1496Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1504-1506frontline


How to collaborate:Let me talk about the cooperation model between me and the physical warehouse. I only provide accurate advice, guidance, and decision-making ideas to the physical warehouse clients when making orders. Your funds, including your final decision-making power, are in your own hands. Whether or not to follow you, I will not force you to make orders. Moreover, my physical warehouse has free funds and treats positions equally regardless of size. As long as you feel that my skills are not good enough, you can withdraw funds at any time. All operations are based on the premise of protecting the principal, and I will not play games with clients, nor will I endlessly brush orders for personal desires. Everything is controlled by my trading system to control risks.

10.7Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Crude Oil


  原油日线图来看一直是持续收阴，最近的原油只要是反弹就可以做空，周四原油也是再次破位新低连阴下跌，日线上技术面空头趋势明显，整体看空不变；四小时来看，连连阴下跌，可是昨日触及51低位后，紧接着收得一根小阴十字星再转阳反弹上涨，随后午夜拉升到52上方，从四小时图看，周四原油试探低位51附近之后企稳反弹，晚间也是持续走高到53上方，目前可以初步判定原油下方支撑很强，目前布林带朝上运行，KLine operation and near the Bolin track,MA5AndMA10Dead fork upwards,MACDThe golden fork is upward, and the green energy column is released twice,KDJ三线粘合运行，行情多头趋势企稳。


       综合来看，下周一操作思路上彭氏解盘个人建议回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注53.8-54.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below51.8-52.0Frontline support.


Reference suggestion 1:crude oilBounce to53.8-54.0Short on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target53.0-53.2frontline;


Suggestion 2:crude oilCallback to51.8-52.0Long on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target52.8-53.0frontline;

writing/Peng's dissolution

Operation suggestions are for reference only, specific operations are subject to implementation|The plate shall prevail.