10.3Analysis of the latest trend of gold and crude oil | 10.3Suggestions for intraday operations of gold and crude oil

Trading is a process of patiently waiting for opportunities to emerge, not because one is at a loss, but because one has a plan in mind,95%The profit always comes from5%Trading, waiting for the rabbit, is a trading strategy. Sometimes taking the initiative will only scare the rabbit away, patiently waiting for the arrival of a certain signal to avoid blind investment in ambiguous stages. The market is a place where experienced people gain more money, and those with money gain more experience. Every novice will learn from the lessons of failure, while smart people will profit from the help of professional teams. The market is a magnifying glass that wirelessly magnifies your shortcomings. The real loss comes from not correcting or admitting mistakes that are already obvious, and continuing them. There is a strange phenomenon in the investment market, which is that those who make money are always making money, while those who are deeply invested are always deeply invested. They do not know their own tolerance limit, nor do they know their profit target. They are either trapped or on the path of being trapped. Not every transaction will yield good returns, and it is necessary to be prepared to bear the pain of losses, so as not to affect one's mentality. There is no winner in the market. If you are not prepared to lose, you should not have the intention of winning. Any investment carries risks. The path of cultivation is long, and time will accumulate the necessary experience and heal all wounds. Without accumulating small streams, there will be no river or sea. Investment will also go through the process of accumulating funds.
　　
　　————近期有哪些消息面影响goldcrude oil走势？后市该如何布局？
　　
Wednesday(10month2day)，现货黄金延续上日反弹势头。美元指数冲高逾0.2%After falling, the upward momentum is expected to be hindered in the short term. Announced during the period in the United States9monthADP就业数据不及预期，加深了投资者对美国经济恶化的担忧。上日公布的美国制造业数据表现极差，美元从当日创下的逾两年高位回落。不过由于英国脱欧前景的不确定性依然处于高位，欧系货币总体上仍旧疲软，美元跌势受到限制。
　　
　　欧洲时段，现货黄金进一步走高，升至1495dollar/盎司上方，日内回升逾20美元，避险需求有所升温，中东地缘风险上升，伊朗将继续减少履行核协议，且表示摧毁以色列已成为“可实现目标”。而英国脱欧谈判也进入攻坚时期，同时全球经济疲软担忧再起，美国ADP就业数据表现不佳，令避险资产受宠。
　　
　　张晨雷分析认为，金价在盘中稍早触及近两个月低点后逆转走势，现货黄金一度涨超1%，收复1480关口，美元走软支撑了金价，此外欧美股市大幅下挫也提振了黄金的避险需求。考虑到国内和海外经济形势恶化，美联储（Fed）对市场采取进一步行动的预期增加，周二贵金属价格企稳，美元指数则受到限制，并从2017年以来的最高水平回落。因此董财胜认为黄金上行趋势并没有完全结束，美联储的货币政策将成为推动明年年初金价上涨的主要因素。市场要关注的，不仅是美联储对利率的决议，还有更多方面。近两周美联储操作的回购，每晚为市场注入约750亿美元，未来可能会有更多资金被以此注入市场。因此，美联储2017年末开始的量化紧缩就到了结束的时候，这对黄金是理想的环境。
　　
　　————国际黄金行情走势分析
　　
　　金价强劲攀升站上1490关口，疲弱的美国数据和全球经济放缓的担忧支撑金价；周三(10month2day)纽约时段盘中，现货金价延续上日以来的强劲势头，站上1492关口。刚刚美国民间机构ADP公布的就业数据表现不及预期，加之市场对全球经济放缓的忧虑进一步加深，英国硬脱欧的忧虑等，金价延续震荡上升势头；美国民间就业机构ADP周三发布的有“小非农”之称的美国9monthADP就业人数新增13.5Ten thousand people, expected increase14Ten thousand people, the previous value was an increase19.5万人；美国对美联储的干预投资者也不能忽视，周二在推特上说，“正如我所预料的，美联储主席和美联储允许美元如此强势，这使得我们的制造业正在遭受不利影响。联邦基金利率太高了”
　　
　　昨日黄金上演了惊天的触底反弹，先是早盘从1475就开始了一波较大幅度的回撤，最低更是触及1459一线，但是美盘在美国的言论刺激下，美指直接暴跌，50亿买盘进场，金价一波20多美金的上涨诞生了，从情绪上来讲，怎么说也应该存在一个反弹了。而对于反弹的力度，我也是没有能想到美盘会直接上涨到1486.技术面看，隔夜黄金的探底回升收阳线，理智点看待并不代表空头趋势的彻底结束，虽然一根阳线还不足以支撑趋势的反转，但是昨日的反弹已是确认底部，短期内恐不会再去下探，后面就是看行情能否收稳在1500上方，届时多头将势必上演王者归来，在此之前我们以震荡对待， 综合来看，今日短线操作思路上张晨雷个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注1510-1514Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1488-1493一线支撑。若有不懂或跟不上操作的朋友可关注张晨雷レ，亻言：zc4867Get more real-time guidance.
　　
　　————国际原油行情走势分析
　　
Tuesday(10month1day)，国际油价反弹，NYMEXcrude oilfuturesrise0.57%to54.39dollar/Barrel;ICEBrent crude oil futures rose0.42%to59.50dollar/桶。因有报道称，全球最大的几个石油生产国三季度产量下降。不过石油需求依然令人担忧，且沙特阿拉伯继续恢复产能，抑制了油价涨幅。受贸易紧张局势影响，全球经济增长放缓预期强烈，两大原油期货合约在三季度连续第二个季度收跌，且跌幅较二季度扩大。NYMEXCrude oil closed down6.80%，布伦特原油收跌7.93%。张晨.雷认为：“短线投机空头在周二获利了结，不过任何反弹都有可能随时戛然而止，因为全球经济放缓和沙特产能恢复预期超过了中东局势不稳可能带来的供给风险。
　　
　　日线来看原油昨日已经触及到布林的低位支撑点位，53点位不破，那么再次之上就是看涨，而且上涨空间较大，尾盘回升，直接企稳52.8关键支撑之上；日线来看收取一根上下影小阴线，关键位置收取此形态，凌晨受API数据利多小幅拉升，今日早间开盘一直在54下方震荡，午间站稳54上方目前报价54.2,目前布林带开始缩口，原油回到布林中轨上方，日线带有长下影线的阴线。日线来看，布林带开口向下，价格并未突破布林带下轨，而是转头上行，并冲破布林带中轨，MACD指标也形成金叉，布林带开口，价格冲破布林带上轨向上延伸。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上张晨雷个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注54.0-54.6Frontline resistance, short-term focus below51.4-51.8一线支撑。（行情千变万化，点位仅供参考，详情关注张晨雷本人官||Wei:zc4867）
　　
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　　————晨雷寄语
　　
　　总结：夲单是不好的习惯，是病，得治！做单严格按照操作纪律，顺应趋势，进场带止损！错误的单子及时离场，防止一错再错！被套之后千万不要着急乱了阵脚，一定要调整好自己的心态，这时候心态至关重要。投资的路很漫长，要学会淡然。市场往往技术与消息是充满矛盾的，需要少说话多倾听。无论你今天怎么用力，明天的落叶还是会飘下来，市场本无常，无常是资本市场的一种常态，要学着习惯适应这种无常。KThe rise and fall of the line quickly pass by with the ticking sound of the clock. You are not Superman, you will be tired, you will feel pain, you will cry, you will be sad, you will be helpless, you will be powerless. But you need to understand yourself like this. Don't be too demanding, let alone compromise easily. Work harder, plan and do transactions step by step, live up to your true colors, and believe that there will always be a gust of wind that blows away all your troubles. People with multiple hearts are destined to live hard because they are too easily influenced by the emotions brought by the market.
　　
Don't always think that the market has let you down. In this market, no one lives easier than anyone else. Trading is simple but charming;Often, many market trends are like this, and when you deliberately pursue them, they will run very fast;When you abandon superficial mundane thoughts, focus on executing every market trend for strategy and planning, some profits can be easily obtained. Wherever your attention is, the results are there. The more you express, the less you lack. When your mindset and execution continue to improve, money is just a gift. Attitude determines hardship and joy, concept determines success and failure, and the simpler a person is, the more peaceful their trading becomes. Many times, you would rather be killed in battle against the tide than reflect on yourself. A drop of ink can stain a glass of water, but it is difficult to muddy a river because a generous heart can accommodate it;One sentence can ruin a temporary mood, but it is difficult to determine a person's life, because fate is in one's own hands;An accident can make your footsteps heavy and difficult to erode your persistent pursuit, because you are "alive" in the market, and because you are strong, the road is ahead. Don't easily stop walking.
　　
　　本文由张晨雷（官微：zc4867 ---公众号：张晨雷）分析师独家原创，本人一直热衷于黄金、原油市场，由于网络推送延迟性，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，转载请注明出处