黄金延续反弹，原油静待EIA；黄金原油晚间行情走势分析及操作策略

　　10month2日，国际金价走高，延续上日反弹之势，低迷的美国制造业数据给金价提供支撑。金价上日触及8month6Daily low point1459.14美元，但美洲时段一度上涨1%。由于持续的经贸紧张局势对出口造成压力，美国9月份制造业活动跌至逾10年来最低水平，加剧了人们对经济急剧放缓的担忧。促使美国总统川普对美联储提出强烈批评。国际油价低位回升，收复前一交易日部分跌势。由于负面的经济信号使全球能源需求前景变得黯淡，油价在周二纽约时段跌至近两个月来的最低点。需求恐慌压倒了供应担忧，crude oil投资者的注意力已经转向国际经贸局势及其对全球能源需求的影响。此外，留意晚间EIA原油库存变化，凌晨API原油库存意外大降592万桶，令美油短线拉升。

goldTrend analysis:

United StatesISMmanufacturingPMI数据表现极差，美联储降息预期升温，美元从高位回落，帮助金价探底回升；欧美股市大幅走弱，避险情绪也有所回升；但美元仍相对强于多数非美货币，黄金技术面看空信号仍存，市场还将关注本周美国非农，短线金价走势变数较大。

　　日线来看，震荡下跌；尽管上一交易日金价探底回升，但MACDandKDJ依然死叉运行，短期均线依然对金价形成压制，后市下行风险仍存，继续关注1460附近支撑，鸿|金认为若失守该支撑，则可能会进一步跌向1446.21Nearby, then100The daily moving average is supported by1428.95附近；此外，7month19Daily high point1453.09附近也存在一定的支撑。上方5Daily moving average resistance1486.33Nearby,10Daily moving average and20The daily moving averages are all within1500整数关口附近，若意外顶破该阻力，则增加短线看涨信号。此外，9month18Daily low point1483.50附近也分别存在一些阻力。

　　4小时来看，震荡，MACDGolden fork,KDJ金叉，上方留意短线跌势的38.2%Retreat position1488.42Nearby resistance, if broken, is expected to be further explored50%Retreat position1497.45附近阻力但短线进一步上破1497.45阻力的2难度还比较大；进一步阻力在61.8%Retreat position1506.49Nearby, if the position is unexpectedly recovered, it will increase the bullish signal for the future market. Attention below1470.22附近支撑，关注3268735920若回落至该位置下方，则增加重回跌势的风险；布林线下轨支撑在1458.00附近，若进一步下破该支撑，则有望打开新的下行空间。综合来看，今日操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高沽低渣即可；

Focus on resistance above:1483.50；1488.42；1497.45；

Pay attention to support below:1474.95；1470.22；1463.46；

Suggestions for Gold Operations:

　　1Rebound1488Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1477-1475；

　　2Callback1470Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1480-1482；

Analysis of crude oil trend:

　　尽管欧美经济数据较差，欧美股市大跌，令市场担忧需求前景；但9monthOPEC的产量降至八年来最低水平，世界上最大的两个石油生产国美国和俄罗斯的石油产量也分别在7Month and9月下降，俄罗斯9month1-29日的产量从前一个月的112910000 barrels/Daily decrease112410000 barrels/Japan, USA7Reduced monthly crude oil production27.610000 barrels/Day, to118110000 barrels/日；再加上API原油库存大幅增加，帮助油价守住关键支撑；市场将关注晚间美国的EIAdata

　　日线来看，震荡下跌；MACDDead fork,KDJ死叉，后市下行风险仍存，鸿|金认为若下破52.84附近关键支撑，该位置是布林线下轨和9month3日低点的双重支撑位，则可能会进一步跌向8Monthly low point50.52附近。但油价在52.84附近附近获得支撑，K线录得类十字星，布林线水平运行，并没有明显的开口继续，油价短线也存在一些反弹机会，5Daily moving average resistance55.04附近，前期上涨趋势线阻力在55.94Nearby,200Daily moving average resistance56.55附近，若能收复该位置，则增加短线看涨信号。

　　4小时来看，单边下跌后反弹，MACDRandom indicators flatten out,KDJ金叉，但油价受到布林线中轨压制，短线走势变数较大，若下破布林线下轨53.35附近支撑，则可能会打开新的下行空间。关注3268735920若油价顶破布林线中轨55.27附近阻力，则有望进一步试探布林线上轨57.19附近阻力；若强势顶破该阻力，则增加后市看涨信号。综合来看，短线走势变数较大，留意53.35-55.27区域突破情况；顶破55.27前，中线仍偏向下行。所以今日操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；

       Focus on resistance above:54.50；55.27；55.94；

Pay attention to support below:53.35；52.84；51.94；

Suggestions for crude oil operation:

　　1Rebound55.0Stop loss without breaking short0.5US dollars, look at the target54.2-53.8；

　　2Callback52.8Do not break long, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target54.8-55.0；


　　1Special reminder: Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and waiting patiently for the best opportunity to sell, and avoiding frequent trading is one of the recognized winning secrets. Do not attempt to seize all fluctuations, nor expect to grasp every segment of the market. Judging the market situation is only a part of trading. Investors also need to have a reverence for the market, remember trading discipline, and strictly control their positions to reduce greed, overcome fear, and try to maintain a calm mind when trading.

　　2Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.

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　　鸿金寄语

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