目前市场对美联储会议降息的概率出现了反转。在7Monthly interest rate reduction25After points,9The probability of monthly interest rate cuts has reached100%But it was announced this morningCMEFrom the perspective of the Federal Reserve observation,9Monthly interest rate reduction25The probability of a point dropping to48.5%The probability of not lowering interest rates is51.5%。 That is to say, there are currently differences in the market regarding this interest rate reduction meeting!由于贸易的局势的缓和以及美国经济数据的好转,目前美联储按兵不动的概率增加不少,所以晚间数据只会有两种可能性,其一是降息25Two benchmark points, and the second is to hold still and not lower interest rates!
1If interest rates are lowered25个基准点,龙铭品金个人看好直接拉升,目前黄金行情的大幅回落是由于避险消退缘故以及降息可能性大降所导致的。若晚间直接公布降息了,那么市场会把之前不降息这部分的跌幅全部收回来。技术面来看,上方重点关注1524The suppression of the high point of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank last week, if this position is breached, gold will return to bullish positions and return to strength!If this position is not broken, gold will still be in a wide range of fluctuations and consolidation!
2If interest rates are not lowered, similarly, the market will swallow up the previous increase due to the possibility of interest rate cuts. From a technical perspective, gold is currently in a key supporting position on the daily line, supported by the upward trend line and the rebound support after the breakthrough of the daily channel!Focus on1485-1479If this position falls below and the daily bullish pattern is broken, there will be a deep correction in the future. Of course, this is just an analysis, making a simple expectation based on the current situation.
行情分析,神策妙计
随着美联储利率决议的临近,近期金价来回穿梭短期均线和布林中轨,由此可以判定支撑与阻力在布林下轨和上轨,而目前布林上轨显示位置在1511一线,下轨则显示在上周五的低点1487一线,所以日内操作可保持在此区间内进行。不过,由于目前短期均线和其它各周期指标走势较为混乱。MACD金叉背离向上,红色能量柱显着;KDJ金叉运行,随机指标温和走高,指示黄金接下来将展开震荡反弹趋势,上方关注1515Resistance; Follow Below1490支撑;操作上龙铭品金建议低多为主,高空为辅;(破位1515Go straight up and take a look1526)
Gold9.18晚盘操作建议:
空单策略:黄金反弹至1513-1515Short on the front line, stop loss5US dollars, look at the target1506-1504frontline;
多单策略:黄金回调至1502-1504Long on the front line, stop loss5US dollars, look at the target1508-1510frontline;