Bo Hu Lun Jin:9.18 美联储有临降息风波，黄金原油走势分析及操作策略

The road to investment is long, and there are many who follow the trend!However, those who do not plan for the overall situation are not enough to plan for a city. The market situation is unpredictable and unpredictable. Only by setting one's mind, observing the situation, planning and moving forward, not being confused by the heart, not trapped in the situation, and strategizing can one win a thousand miles away. Doubt can filter out risks, but it can also miss opportunities. To seize opportunities, one must be brave enough to try. If one lacks ambition, even with the help of influential people, it will eventually be difficult to achieve their goals. As a qualified investor, it is important to remember that most of the time one should focus on observation, patiently wait for the best opportunity, avoid frequent entry, and avoid attempting to capture all fluctuations in operations. Also, do not expect to make correct judgments on each market segment, and be cautious and precise!
　　
InternationalgoldTrend analysis
　　
　　黄金方面，周三（9month18日）美联储将公布9月利率决议，目前投资者普遍预期本周美联储将降息25个点，但最终的决定仍可能因经济数据给出的综合信号而饱受争议，因噤声期前部分委员已经表达各类分歧，这使得美联储9月的决议重要性更为凸显。
　　
　　尽管下行风险加强，但当前的问题在于，是否经济扩张确实需要依靠眼下的降息实现？“美联储根本没有足够的能力，来抵御一场甚至是平均规模的萧条可能，更别提金融危机了。我们存在下一场衰退较预期更为深化持续的风险，缘于美联储并未处于良好的位置抑制一旦出现的下降势头。同时在本轮经济周期中，货币政策的供给量远超需求，面临极低的利率使得收益率曲线在最初的位置发生倒挂，这不是美联储近年操作导致，而是因全球长期利率骤跌导致的，这三个点是我们必须清楚。
　　
　　日线来看：黄金近期窄幅震荡；短线留意1484-1524区域突破情况，分别是近一周的低点和高点，KDJ有金叉趋势，随机指标开化式勾头向上；MACD死叉信号延续，绿色动能柱略微缩窄；指示黄金下跌动能暂时耗尽，接下来将展开反弹之势或者震荡趋势。若上破1524附近阻力，则有望进一步上探布林带上轨1550附近阻力。若下破1484附近支撑，则偏向进一步试探布林线下轨1476附近支撑，短线的话，布林线中轨1514附近存在一定的阻力，在收复该位置前，后市短线走势上认为略微偏向震荡下行。
　　
　　4小时来看：随着美联储利率决议的临近，近期金价来回穿梭短期均线和布林中轨，由此可以判定支撑与阻力在布林下轨和上轨，然而目前布林上轨显示位置在1511一线，下轨则显示在上周五的低点1487一线，所以操作上可保持在此区间内进行。不过，由于目前短期均线和其它各周期指标走势较为混乱。MACD金叉背离向上，红色能量柱显着；KDJ金叉运行，随机指标温和走高，指示黄金接下来将展开震荡反弹趋势，上方关注1514Resistance; Follow Below1490支撑；今日操作上博虎论金建议低多为主，高空为辅；
　　
Internationalcrude oilTrend analysis
　　
　　原油方面，沙特阿拉伯可能需要30-120天才能恢复被袭击的Abqaia石油设施，该公司可以恢复部分产能，但要修复全部损失可能最长需要四个月时间。长达数月的生产中断将导致油价上涨，在这种情况下，中断的产量大概在1.5Billion-3亿桶之间，全球市场将寻找其他办法“减轻产量损失的影响”，包括协同释放战略原油储备。最好的情况下，产量会在两周内恢复，中断的产量总价在300010000 barrels-6000万桶之间，这个影响应该是可控的。在最坏的情况下，沙特产能恢复可能需要几个月，但除非发生大规模冲突或损害比预期更广泛，否则这种情况不太可能发生。（行情千变万化，点位仅供参考，详情关注博虎论金本人KD1394）
　　
　　4小时连阳收复失地且探出新高，但是最后一冲仍收出了上影线，由于波动基数大了，冲高后会伴随长时间整理修正，毕竟空间释放大，延续的量能不足。在短周期上走势更会偏向于走跌，所以，综合来看，今日操作思路上博虎论金个人建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注60.5-60.7Resistance, short-term focus below58.5Support.
　　
Suggestions for Gold Operations:1、短线1514Short selling, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1505-1500附近；（破位后减仓持有）2、短线1490Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1505附近；（破位继续持有）
　　
Suggestions for crude oil operation:1、短线可58.5-61.5区间操作，止损0.4USD, target50-100Point;2、中线可在58.5不破位的情况下布局多单目标60-61.5附近；反之可反手做空，目标可看60-61.5Nearby;
　　
　　因为博虎论金不知你的π单点位、仓位风险等具体π单情况，不能给出相应的解π策略。那么有需要的朋友可以咨询博虎论金或者100度博虎论金，在此本人还是建议各位投资朋友以后做单不要抗单，仓位不要过重，避免下次再π，不是每次都是可以成功解π，不是每次都顺心如意，每一次的做单是应该有计划的做单，详情解轁思路博虎论金将会在实盘实时在线给出，风险掌控及后续方案将会做出规划。
　　
　　做黄金原油为何你频频亏损？
　　
Firstly, counter market operations-If the direction is reversed, resist; Resisting losses intensifies; If it really doesn't work, stop loss; The direction of the stop loss has returned, or when the market rises, it falls; when buying, it rises, and it can never keep up with the rhythm.
　　
Secondly, no stop loss is set-止损，这是讲烂了，强调的不想再强调的问题了，我这人说话比较直、不喜欢拐弯抹角，一句话，如果你不止损，不管你的单子是赚是亏，再多的钱迟早有一天，到时也会玩完、亏的没地方哭。
　　
Thirdly, frequent operations-无论单子理不理想，不负责任的老师当看到你的资金所剩无几或叫你加资金你又不加、可能找各种借口不给实时指导，把你凉到一边去、最多给个区间让你来回操作即可，这我就搞不懂了，这种的老师你还有必要跟着做有道理吗？乘着仓位还有点资金赶紧撤离、去选择适合自己的老师，后续也要从自身去找问题，这样你才能在投资路上越走越顺。收获也会越来越多，生活也会越来越美好。
　　
Tiger Talk Gold Message: As you fight alone, do you feel like you are walking on thin ice and struggling in this financial market? If you are tired of lackluster investments and lost in the foggy market trends; If you suffer consecutive losses but feel unwilling. So, it's time to change the status quo. Good birds choose trees to inhabit, your choices determine your future!
　　
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Comprehensive guidance teacher: Bo Hu Lun Jin Micro（KD1394）
　　
Direction guidance time: early7：00In the early morning of the next day2：00
　　
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