Zhou Hongjin:9.17中东冲突提振油价，黄金多头激流勇退；晚间黄金原油行情走势分析及操作

　　9month17日，数据方面，注意欧元区及德国9monthZEW经济景气指数，数据利好将提振欧元走强。此前有消息称，德国财政部可能很快正式出台经济刺激措施。中东地缘局势发酵，料进一步支撑油价，油价飙升可能会给美联储新添一个降息的理由。此外，次日清晨，留意美国APIcrude oil库存变动。
　　国际油价震荡走低，前一交易日创下逾10年来最大涨幅。尽管中东冲突加剧，增加原油风险溢价，但部分投资者获利了结，加上多国释放战略储备以弥补沙特产能空缺，导致油价走低。沙特已恢复40%产油量，预计余下产油量将在9月底前恢复。现货gold窄幅震荡，沙特油田遇袭引发的避险情绪有所消退，油价上涨改善通胀预期，市场对美联储本周利率决议的鸽派预期减少，美元指数大幅上涨.而且国际贸易局势出现好转的迹象，黄金避险需求下降，短线金价偏向震荡下行。

　　

　　Gold trend analysis:
　　
　　沙特油田遇袭引发的避险情绪有所消退，油价上涨改善通胀预期，市场对美联储本周利率决议的鸽派预期减少，美元指数大幅上涨；而且国际贸易局势出现好转的迹象，黄金避险需求下降，短线金价偏向震荡下行；但投资者还需对地缘局势保持密切关注。
　　
　　日线来看，窄幅震荡；短线留意1484.65-1524.27区域突破情况，分别是近一周的低点和高点，KDJThere is a golden cross trend,MACD死叉信号延续，短线走势变数较大，若上破1524.27附近阻力，则有望进一步上探布林线上轨1551.00附近阻力。鸿.金认为若下破1484.65附近支撑，则偏向进一步试探布林线下轨1477.19附近支撑，甚至会进一步跌向7month19Daily high point1453.09附近。布林线轨道水平运行，中线走势可以参考布林线轨道1477.17-1551.00区域突破情况。短线的话，布林线中轨1514.10附近盲目去也存在一定的阻力，在收复该位置前，后市略微偏向震荡下行。
　　
　　4小时来看，震荡；留意布林线轨道1486.88-1510.93区域突破情况；KDJThere is a dead cross trend,MACD金叉但红色柱萎缩，略微偏向震荡下行，若失守隔夜低点1496附近支撑，则偏向进一步试探布林线下轨1486.88附近阻力，关注3268735920若进一步下破，则增加中线看空信号。若意外顶破布林线上轨1510.93附近阻力，则增加后市看涨信号。综合来看，今日操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；
　　
　　Focus on resistance above:1506.32；1510.93；1514.05；
　　
Pay attention to support below:1496.00；1492.09；1484.65；

　　

Suggestions for Gold Operations:
　　
　　1Rebound1506Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1496-1494；
　　
　　2Callback1492Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1500-1502；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646Get real-time strategies and free solutions.
　　
　　Analysis of crude oil trend:
　　
　　上周末沙特原油设施遇袭的事件依然是大家关注的焦点，最新消息显示，多数产能可能需要几周甚至是几个月的时间才能恢复，这给油价提供支撑；但之前油市原油库存充足，多个国家做好动用战略原油储备的准备，也令多头有所顾忌；市场还将关注最新的原油库存变化，略微偏向震荡上攻。
　　
　　日线来看，震荡上涨；油价初步顶破了50.52-58.78的近两个月震荡区间，MACDGolden fork,KDJ金叉，油价后市偏向震荡上攻，5month20Resistance to daily highs63.96Nearby,4month30Resistance to daily highs64.74Nearby, strong resistance4month23Daily high point66.60附近。关注3268735920Preliminary support below7month11Daily high point60.94Nearby, then60整数关口，强支撑在9month10Daily high point58.76附近，鸿.金认为若意外回落至该位置下方，则增加短线看空信号。5The daily moving average is supported by58.02Nearby,100The daily moving average is supported by57.29附近。综合来看，失守60.94前，短线偏向震荡上攻或者高位震荡；所以今日操作思路上周鸿金个人建议低多为主，高空为辅；
　　
　　上方关注阻力：63.38；63.94；64.74；
　　
Pay attention to support below:61.45；60.94；60.00；

　　

Suggestions for crude oil operation:
　　
　　1Callback61.4Do not break long, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target63.0-63.2；
　　
　　2Rebound63.3Stop loss without breaking short0.5US dollars, look at the target61.6-61.4；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646Get real-time strategies and free solutions.
　　
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　　2Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
　　
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　　鸿金寄语-----
　　
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