黄金再次大跳水，下周黄金还会涨吗？-9.14

　　近期有哪些消息面影响gold走势？下周该如何布局？

Friday(9month13day)欧市盘初，美元指数维持显著跌幅，稍早一度逼近98关口，现货黄金维持在1505dollar/盎司附近。北京时间周五晚间的美国零售销售数据，金价遭到大幅度下跌，最低跌至1485. Due to the Federal Reserve's emphasis that interest rate decisions will depend on economic data, and consumer spending as a percentage of US economic output70%Around the time, retail sales data in the United States often caused "huge waves" in the financial market, hence it is called "terrifying data".
　　


　　郭哲函分析认为，尽管久拖不决的贸易对峙出现融冰迹象，市场风险改善，促使投资者远离避险资产，美联储下周料放宽货币政策。在欧洲央行的悬念之后，市场的焦点就转向了下周的美联储利率决议。欧洲央行的表现使得市场避险情绪再次升温，提振金价上涨。市场对下周美联储的预期也同样，因此黄金很有吸引力。美联储下周很可能会再次降息25Basis points.

　　郭哲函个人观点：如果下周美联储利率决议给出出较为鸽派的表态，金价可能进一步回落至1480to1450dollar/盎司的支撑水平。眼下黄金市场都认为美联储会进行较为中性的降息。郭老哲师函认为美元和债券收益率的回升使得不少黄金多头选择离场，打压了金价持续上升的表现。总体宏观情况而言，各国央行的货币政策都不是很有效，金价的下跌提供了买入机会。再者，目前的经济环境能够为黄金提供支撑，在市场大量不确定性的情况下，投资者们会转向黄金。
　　


Analysis of International Gold Market

　　由于市场持有史上最大的投机性黄金多头仓位，且RSI走势看空分化的迹象日益明显，多数人认为黄金市场容易受到回调的冲击。在此前四天的时间内，美国10年期公债收益率大幅走高，尽管是从非常低的水平上升。黄金价格和美国国债收益率通常呈负相关。当收益率上升时，金价下跌，反之亦然。考虑到美国10年期公债收益率将进一步上涨的短期预期，近期金价跌至1484美元的低位可能只是IV浪修正性回调的第一浪。虽然反向趋势浪b有可能逼近1525美元，但浪数显示，金价最终应该会回调至1450dollar-1430美元支撑位，以完成IVWaves orcWaves.

　　目前从技术上看，黄金重返千五大关恢复了多头近期的技术优势，金价在日线图上仍处于上涨趋势之中；多头下一个目标将是持稳在1500Above the level, further attack1600Gateway; The bearish target is to pull the gold price back1500关口下方方，推动下跌行情。目前支撑位在1485USD, followed by1480US dollars; Resistance level at intraday high1523.80USD and1530USD.

　　综合来看，下周操作思路上Guo Zhehan个人建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方重点关注1495Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1485-1480Frontline support.
　　


　　黄金被套，如何解出被套？

　　（1）Lock in position and price difference method: After being covered, it indicates that our judgment direction is wrong. The market and our prices in the opposite direction are moving, and when they rebound or fall to a certain height, it is estimated that they will reach a short-term high. We need to continuously increase the funds in the lock in position to ensure that the lock in position is greater than the position in the lock in position. By using this technique of taking advantage of the situation to increase the price difference earned by locking orders, and finally waiting for the total funds to make up for the loss, completing the removal of the bedding and making a profit, and then selling all of it?

　　（2）Bottom adding method: After being covered, one should be patient and dare to lock in the position, because of the characteristics of the product, some prices and bottom signals may appear, especially in large cycles such as the weekly chartKWhen there is a rebound signal or a bottom signal on the line, it will be very stable. As long as there is a bottom signal in the large cycle, it is necessary to boldly unwind, buy continuously on dips, increase positions, and once the large cycle rebounds, it can be resolved.

　　（3）降低均价法：被套后，如果是套在相对历史低点，就不用担心，因为黄金本身的价值决定了黄金不可能出现较大跌幅，必然会有反弹的空间，这个时候要不断的逢低加仓买入，逢低15%Increase the position once and lower the average price, so that when gold experiences a rebound, it can be eliminated. This technique is also known as the pyramid method.
　　


If you're still reading posts after losing money, it proves one thing, you're not willing. You are not willing to let this market take away all your funds. People with teachers have poor technical skills, and personal operations without teachers rely entirely on luck, unable to analyze market trends, always taking a beating behind others, always having a hot head, and unable to calm down in times of trouble. There are too many reasons for your loss, but in the end, there is only one outcome for you, which is that the money is gone. I don't want to talk too much about how to solve the problem here, after all, you have read through articles one by one, and I believe you have roughly understood some basic ways to solve the problem. However, you still don't know how to solve the problem. What is the reason for this? I have said this sentence for a long time, 'To unwind a hedge, we need to combine the current market situation, as well as your hedging position and fund combination to unwind it. It's not something you can say in just a few words.'.
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　　作者赠言：你拿出诚意，我拿出实力，我们一定能成为良师益友！三分师徒，七分朋友，郭哲函与你同行！

　　文：gzh2345

Writing time:2019.9.14