Wei Liangchen:9.6Small non-agriculturalADP率先报捷非农数据能否传佳音?黄金会涨回556？

9.6Small non-agriculturalADP率先报捷非农数据能否传佳音?gold会涨吗？


Friday Beijing Time20:30The United States will announce8月非农就业报告，这是日内最受关注的经济数据，此次就业报告对于美联储本月晚些时候的利率决定至关重要。目前外媒调查显示，美国8月份非农就业人口料增加1610000 people, with a growth rate lower than7Of the month16.4Ten thousand people. United States7月失业率料稳定在3.7%，平均每小时工资月率料增长0.3%。



Morgan Stanley (MorganStanley)在内的22家大型投行发表了对此次数据的前瞻。较7月而言，各投行对平均时薪年率增幅的预期较为悲观，具体而言，美国8The growth rate of non-agricultural employment after the seasonal adjustment is expected to be between11ten thousand-20.6Ten thousand, the unemployment rate is expected to be between3.6%-3.7%The average annual rate of increase in hourly salary is expected to be between3.0%-3.1%。


值得一提的是，隔夜公布的小非农ADP数据已率先报捷，或预示着今晚非农也将有不俗表现。数据显示，美国8monthADPRecord an increase in employment19.5万人，前值下修为增加14.2万人，预期值为增加14.9Ten thousand people. United States8monthADP就业人数连续第三个月环比增长，录得2019year4A new high since the beginning of the month.


华尔街市场分析人士指出，若非农报告优于预期，美元有望进一步反弹，这将对金价造成更大的打击。而假如非农数据表现糟糕，将提升市场对美联储大幅降息的预期，美元恐受到打击，这将推动金价反弹。


今晚的非农数据并非市场的唯一焦点，因为在数据发布四小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔也将压轴登场!Saturday Beijing time00:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将在苏黎世就经济前景发表讲话。鲍威尔可能在美联储9Provide final clues before the monthly monetary policy meeting.



黄金周五行情策略


Gold is currently experiencing large-scale and wide range fluctuations, and its upward trend cannot be broken through1555Under strong pressure, the decline has been pulled back today1515上方，还是在区间内。今日走势更多的是横盘整理的形态，关键行情在美盘，大非农数据和鲍威尔的讲话是否还能给到市场造成大的冲击。今日黄金下方重点关注1517Support, break or bearish trend, focus on rebound above1528Jumping gap pressure, even if you can't go up, it's still empty. It's likely to maintain today1517-1528区域内震荡。


Golden operation strategy:


1506Nearby, stop loss1500, Objective1520-1525


1530Near empty, stop loss1535, Objective1515-1505


美元和黄金变得很微妙，美元上涨黄金不跌，而美元稍微回调黄金就会借机上涨，细心的投资者可以发现日元同是避险货币但是最近黄金上涨日元的幅度很小，原因就是所有的资金焦点都集中在黄金之上，日元与黄金的脱钩，以及黄金对于美元的不为所动，实际都体现了黄金内在属性的强大，以及人们对它的青睐，在央行都在抢购黄金的大环境之下，方向依然不变。


要学会关注汇率变动，国际黄金价格一般与美元汇率走势相反，当美元贬值时，金价往往上涨，在本国货币升值时，人们可以在外国购买到较为便宜的黄金货物，因为国际黄金在国内价格不动或是下跌，并不表示国际黄金本身的价值就会相应下跌，有可能是本地货币与外国货币汇率变换的结果。因此，投资国际黄金需要具备一定的foreign exchange知识，否则不要大量的投资黄金。



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One collaboration, lifelong friend! The above article is from the original work of Wei Liangchen. Investment carries risks, and caution is necessary when entering the industry.


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