Zhang Benxin9.2Analysis strategy for predicting the latest trend of gold and crude oil in the morning

Why do you always fail to grasp whether the market is skyrocketing, plummeting, unilateral or fluctuating? Is it the so-called "buy and fall", "cut and fall", "cut and rise", "chase and chase", "chase and trap", "cut and cut". It's like a dead cycle, ultimately leading to a continuous shrinkage of funds. If you are in such a dead cycle, please stop and think carefully, summarize your experience and lessons, and then get ready to go. Before everything is too late, Benxin hopes you will think deeply!

　　------Message surface



Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will meet on Friday afternoon Eastern Time in the United States12:30Giving a speech at the University of Zurich in Switzerland. This could be the Federal Reserve9month18日做出利率决定前的最后一次发言。品源认为，鲍威尔定于本周五晚些时候发表讲话。他会给出最后的暗示，暗示他们计划在9Monthly interest rates will be lowered again. Powell made it clear in his speech at Jackson Hole last week that the Federal Reserve plans to9The interest rate will be lowered again in the month due to the escalating risk taking war and the economic weakness in other parts of the world; The market currently expects that the Federal Reserve will9Interest rate reduction at monthly meetings25The probability of one basis point is95.8%The probability of not lowering interest rates at all is4.2%。品源目前预计9Month and12The monthly interest rate will be lowered, and it is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged next year;


　　美国将公布当周最重磅的数据，也就是8Monthly non farm employment report. The most important thing is that the US employment data will be released on Friday, and everyone is paying attention to it. The market expects an increase in employment numbers16.8万人。若数据低于这一水平，将会推高gold而打压美元。美国8monthISMmanufacturingPMIIt will be announced on Tuesday. This will give us direction as the market still expects the manufacturing industryPMIMaintain at50Above. If approaching50The checkpoint will have a significant impact on the gold market, as this watershed will tell us whether it is expanding or contracting.


　　------Gold trend analysis


This week is the non farm week, and if there is no other positive news to stimulate the basic framework of gold, it should be a weak trend. We can see the four hour chart of gold from1550On the front line, although there has been a rebound, it is affected by the moving averageMA10Gold is still present1533I can't handle this pressure.kdjThere are signs of turning downwards,MACDThe kinetic energy columns are still arranged in a bearish pattern. From the analysis of the weekly trend of gold, it can be seen that there was a rebound and an upward trend to the highest point at the beginning of the week1555After the high point, it was blocked and fell all the way back, with a bearish candlestick on the weekly chart,KThe line runs above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the Bollinger Bands will definitely continue to shrink and rise along the perimeter. Attached diagramMACDRunning above the zero axis with a golden cross, the red kinetic energy column strengthens the weak indicator. There is also a lot of room for weekly adjustment, and last Friday did not provide a good rebound and upward trend1532压制承压下跌，操作思路上本鑫建议反弹做空为主，上方重点关注1532-1535-Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1516-1512Frontline support.


Recommendations for Gold Operations


　　1Rebound1534Regional short selling, stop loss1539, Objective15-1523；


　　2Step back1516Long, stop loss1513, look at the goal1525-1530Break through and reduce holdings;

　　------crude oilTrend analysis



　　俄罗斯未履行减产承诺令原油多头信心受挫，油价打破连涨再遭冲击。美国WTIcrude oilfuturesThe lowest price hit in the session54.55dollar/Barrel, Brent crude oil futures hit their lowest point in the session60.25dollar/桶。截至8month30日当周，美国石油活跃钻井数再减12Seat to742座，连续9个月录得下滑同时触及2018year1月来新低。伊朗外长扎里夫日内表示，在美国重新履行《联合全面行动计划》(JCPOA)的义务之前，伊朗总统鲁哈尼与美国总统特浪普不可能会面。这无疑是暂时终止了与美国和解的希望，原油供应继续受到威胁对油价而言是一种利好。尽管经济衰退可能会导致未来的库存增加，但就目前大库存数据而言，原油市场存在一种看涨的趋势。


　　原油从技术面来看，日线来看，周五日线收大阴，自本周初油价触及低位后形成V型反转连阳上涨后大阴回落，回吐部分全部涨幅，日线图上，高点逐渐变低，下方50.51形双底支撑，总体形态呈连续下降三角形，日线依旧看跌；短线四小时来看，四小时图上，原油短暂震荡后连阴下挫，布林带即将收口，MA5Daily moving average andMA10Day,MA20日均线向下形死叉，当前K线位于中下轨之间运行，KDJ指标三线向下有向上弯钩迹象，MACD指标绿色动能柱持续放量，快慢线死叉向下延伸。综合来看，下周操作思路上本鑫个人建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注56.2-56.4Frontline resistance, short-term focus below54.2-54.4Frontline support.


Suggestions for crude oil operation:


　　1Crude oil55.4-55.7Regional short selling, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target54.8-54.4frontline;


　　寄语：要想在这个市场里长久持续的走下去，必须有一套完整的交易体系，包括仓位技巧、风险控制和技术体系，这样的话，才能在震荡行情中，给你明确的指引，即便利润小，但是很轻松，也很有成就感；在单边行情中，能让你胸中有趋势，如果看对了，争取利润最大化，而看错了的时候，能控制好风险，并能客观调整思路，顺着趋势扭亏为盈。盈利之路不会一帆风顺，中间有止损，有止盈，这才是交易之路。我这里没有100%准确的做单方案，也没有零风险的投资计划，却有稳健收益的方法，扫单不害怕，好的心态也能成就好的未来,Leading the appreciation of positions,Achieve millions of wealth!


　　千万人的港口一杯酒的挽留、数万人的等待一句话的突破，就算疲惫不堪还要继续拥抱明天，你不能做我的客，正如我不能做你的师，今日的执着，会造成明日的后悔。有人为抓住的行情庆祝，有人为做错行情懊悔。你在，我在，你不在，我还在！


May you and I start with words and match our personalities,Trapped in technology, long after kindness, finally character.

Wen/Zhang Benxin