Zhou Hongjin:9.1大非农携美联储再度来袭；黄金原油下周一开盘行情走势策略

　　总有一段难熬的日子，自我怀疑，不过经历在多一点，会发现，一切都只是交易的常态，有悲欢，有胜败，不在于打胜多少仗，而在于略得多少城，山头剿匪大胜只得一山寨，平原攻城略地，多败少胜，但一胜便能得一片沃土。错时丢盔弃甲，破罐破摔，结果损失甚多;胜时，好不容易攻破城门，如小偷进城，摸一瓦缸就急于撤退，最后连子弹钱都没收回，就弃城而逃。这也是很多人最终亏损的原因，错了，不懂得按计划撤退，对了，不敢于乘胜追击，将欲取之必先与之，受不了浮亏，忍不住小利。不怕一张白纸，就怕一开始就入错了门，走偏了路，根深蒂固的思想便很难修正。






　　下周重点关注：
　　经过本周剧烈动荡的一周后，下周需持续关注中美贸易局势进展、英国脱欧进程、意大利政局，以及美伊关系、日韩关系等地缘政治风险，投资者依旧处于避险的主旋律下。更为重要的是，下周金融市场将再度迎来美联储主席鲍威尔讲话以及美国8Monthly non farm employment report. Against the backdrop of the recent red light of the inverted US Treasury yield, market concerns about a global economic recession are increasing day by day. The atmosphere of a new wave of easing around the world has become rampant, and the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented pressure to further ease. Therefore, next week's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the performance of US non farm payroll data will be crucial, as investors urgently seek any clues or guidance on the future policy prospects of the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will meet on Friday afternoon Eastern Time in the United States12:30Giving a speech at the University of Zurich in Switzerland. This could be the Federal Reserve9month18日做出利率决定前的最后一次发言。鸿金认为，鲍威尔定于下周五晚些时候发表讲话。他会给出最后的暗示，暗示他们计划在9Monthly interest rates will be lowered again. Powell made it clear in his speech at Jackson Hole last week that the Federal Reserve plans to9The interest rate will be lowered again in the month due to the escalating risk taking war and the economic weakness in other parts of the world; The market currently expects that the Federal Reserve will9Interest rate reduction at monthly meetings25The probability of one basis point is95.8%The probability of not lowering interest rates at all is4.2%。鸿金目前预计9Month and12The monthly interest rate will be lowered, and it is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged next year;
Before Powell's speech on Friday, the United States will release the heaviest data of the week, which is8Monthly non farm employment report. The most important thing is that the US employment data will be released on Friday, and everyone is paying attention to it. The market expects an increase in employment numbers16.8万人。若数据低于这一水平，将会推高gold而打压美元。美国8monthISMmanufacturingPMIIt will be announced on Tuesday. This will give us direction as the market still expects the manufacturing industryPMIMaintain at50Above. If approaching50The checkpoint will have a significant impact on the gold market, as this watershed will tell us whether it is expanding or contracting.
　　
Gold trend analysis:
　　
In the past week, international spot gold surged to1554.70dollar/After a year high of ounces, it fluctuated and retreated, rebounding slightly on Tuesday and continuing to rise3The trading day closed down with a bearish candlestick, reaching its lowest point of the week1516.78dollar/Ounces, weekly chart also continued before4After a weekly rise, it closed down for the first time.
　　
Technically speaking, JapanKThe line emits a bearish signal similar to 'engulfment',MACDAfter the top deviation, there is a preliminary deadlock,KDJThe high level has initially reached a dead cross, and the gold price has initially peaked in the short term. In the future, there is a risk of further pullback, which is initially supported by20Daily moving average1509.63Nearby, then1500Supports near the integer level, with last week's low point supported at1492.20Nearby; Strong support in1479.71Nearby,8month13Daily low point and1160-1555Upward trend19.1%The retreat support is located near this position. Centerline Strong Support Viewing7month19Daily high point1452.89Nearby. In the short term,10Daily moving average1518.79There is also some support nearby, and this location is also close to the overnight low point. above5Daily moving average resistance1532.04Nearby; Before regaining this position, the aftermarket tends to decline; Overnight high point resistance1550附近，鸿.金认为若意外顶破该阻力，则增加短线看涨信号。短线4hourMACDandKDJDead cross operation, gold price is leaning towards testing the offline track of the Bollinger Line1518.75附近支撑，关注3268735920若失守该支撑，则增加短线看空信号；进一步支撑在1508.50Nearby;1400-1555Upward trend38.2%Retraction position support1496.00Nearby. If the gold price unexpectedly breaks the middle track of the Bollinger Line1534.83Nearby resistance weakens short-term bearish signals; And may be on the Bollinger Line again1549.30附近阻力。综合来看，下周一操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；
　　
Focus on resistance above:1530.00；1534.83；1539.28；
　　
Pay attention to support below:1518.75；1517.06；1508.76；
　　
Suggestions for Gold Operations:
　　
　　1Callback1509Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1518-1520；
　　
　　2Rebound1530Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1519-1517；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646Get real-time strategies and free solutions.
　　
　　crude oilTrend analysis:
　　
　　刚刚过去的一周，油价也表现强劲，美油和布油均在连续4个交易日上涨后，周五回撤以阴线收跌。然而，周线图上看，美布两油均以阳线收涨，布油连续第3周收涨。美国WTI原油本周上涨1.7%，但本月下跌5.9%。布伦特原油本周上涨1.8%，但本月下挫7.3%。
　　
Technically speaking, the daily chartMACDRandom indicators flatten out,KDJ初步结成死叉，油价失守布林线中轨55.28附近支撑，下方通道初步打开，周二低点支撑在53.69附近；布林线下轨支撑在52.44Nearby. Short line4hourMACDandKDJ在都是死叉，油价下破布林线中轨55.4附近支撑，有一步下行试探布林线下轨53.45的迹象，综合来看，留意53.45-55.4区域突破情况，油价收复55.4前，短线偏向下行；所以下周一操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；
　　
Focus on resistance above:55.4；56.0；56.91；
　　
Pay attention to support below:54.56；53.69；53.48；
　　
Suggestions for crude oil operation:
　　
　　1Rebound56.0Stop loss without breaking short0.5US dollars, look at the target54.8-54.6；
　　
　　2Callback53.7Do not break long, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target54.8-55.0；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646Get real-time strategies and free solutions.
　　
　　1Special reminder: Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and waiting patiently for the best opportunity to sell, and avoiding frequent trading is one of the recognized winning secrets. Do not attempt to seize all fluctuations, nor expect to grasp every segment of the market. Judging the market situation is only a part of trading. Investors also need to have a reverence for the market, remember trading discipline, and strictly control their positions to reduce greed, overcome fear, and try to maintain a calm mind when trading.
　　
　　2Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
　　
　　3Experience benefits: For investment friends who are interested in consulting and cooperating, it is convenient for mutual trust in future cooperation and can be experienced with screenshots of actual positions3Tian Shou Dan, you can choose whether to cooperate based on your earnings in the future! I believe this welfare is a good turning point opportunity for friends who have suffered long-term losses in the market and investors who have lost confidence. Whether you seize the opportunity depends on your choice.
　　
　　鸿金寄语-----
　　
There is a saying in the capital market: "Patience is an investment, and patience is the prerequisite for success." The courage and strategy of spot investment are necessary, and patience cannot be lacking! Spot trading must cultivate good endurance, which is often the key to investment success or failure. Many investors do not lack analytical skills or investment experience, but rather a high level of patience. Buying or selling too early can lead to pointless waste of time and loss of money.
　　
Investing in spot goods requires patience, seeking market opportunities requires waiting, and patience is needed; Holding a position is a process that requires investment of time, and therefore requires a high degree of patience, vision, and foresight. Do not be restless due to fluctuations in prices.
　　
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