MBG Markets：极端仓位状况反助英镑，黄金多头气势逼人

　　
脱欧未有实质进展，英镑大概率获回补性礼包(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英磅兑美元上一交易日震幅达101Individual points, closing up0.48%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to55-56一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。上方阻力关注1.2380位置，下方关注布林中轨一线的得失。
　　
Fundamentals:欧盟委员会主席容克在电话中告诉英国首相约翰逊，他将考虑任何可能提出的具体建议，只要这些建议符合脱欧协议。稍晚时候唐宁街的回应则是：除非欧盟重启脱欧协议的谈判，并废除担保协议，否则不预计会达成脱欧协议。昨日，脱欧并未取得实际进展，英镑的回升一定程度上或是仓位极值翻转所带来的回补性行情（CFTC持仓报告显示，英镑的空头敞口已达到历史性峰值，1Period and3periodz-score低于常态值约2个标准差）。
　　
意大利政局稍稳，欧元未获明显助力(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar30Points, closing down0.09%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平，汇价测试中轨不破后稍有回落；日线MA5,10仍构金叉，但MA5,10双线稍趋走平，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the positive column is relatively small, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to41-42一线运行，此前探及50荣枯线后承压明显。欧元多头显然未做好大举反攻致指标反转的准备。上方阻力关注1.1165Below support attention1.1050。
　　
Fundamentals:昨日，意大利五星运动党多次推迟与民主党的会面。一度传出联合政府谈判或因副总理人选要求分歧有破裂危险的传闻。但最终双方表示谈判有成效。市场乐观预计五星运动党和民主党将成立新政府，促使10年期意大利国债收益率下跌，触及2016year9月以来的最低水平。今日，两党将在北京时间周三15:30进行会面。进一步就联合执政相关细节做讨论，市场对意大利政局的乐观信心昨日在国债市场有所反映，但在汇市似乎并未对欧元构成支撑，或有一定延后效应。
　　
gold多头气势逼人，金价重回升势(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:黄金隔夜震幅达190Individual points, closing up0.98%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于上行，金价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋上行；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFOnline threadingDEA构金叉，阳柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to65-66一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。如下图所示AB段行情的-50%外部拓展位置1544已被二次触及，上方关注-61.8%外部拓展位置1566，下方关注布林中轨支撑。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收涨5.12%, closing on20.31； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)The stock price closed up on the previous trading day2.75%, closing on19.77；全球最大的黄金ETFFund: United StatesSPDR Gold Trustto8month28日购入13.49吨黄金，连续5度净增持黄金，持仓量增至873.32吨。美银美林报告称，当前各国央行难以全面评估全球经济，负收益资产的价值和比例等指标一直在增加，央行只能被逼进一步放松；基于此，预计黄金将在未来持续吸引投资。
　　
　　
　　
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