Wang Yuanzhe:8.27原油料跌破50，贵金属黄金或迎大“跳水”？

Why do we always struggle with trading? Is it because the market is not doing well now, is it because I am unlucky, or is there a problem with the teacher's guidance? Countless questions and answers ultimately depend on the mindset you are in to view this money filled market. From Yuan Zhe's perspective, it's not that the market itself is difficult to do, but rather that it can never pass its own hurdle. Almost all losses come from hedging, heavy positions, full positions, and counter trend operations. Secondly, there is a mentality of luck that always thinks of a pullback or rebound, and in the end, the market goes in the opposite direction, and opportunities flow away like this; Such situations often occur when operating on one's own; Quickly liquidate positions with profits, and bear losses to the death; It is what we commonly refer to as the "inability to hold onto" operation, where there is a lack of accuracy in building and closing positions.


　　周一金价小幅下挫、逐步抹掉盘初的强劲涨势，最终收盘时几乎录得持平。最初提振金价走高是上周五国际贸易局势升级继续发酵，而周一盘中的反转则源于美国二狗就贸易问题再度发声所引发的。


　　随着贸易局势的逐步降温，提振市场风险偏好情绪复苏，周一盘初油价跟随股市双双上扬。但随着特朗普就伊朗问题再度出声，表示即将与伊朗达成协议后，油价迅速抹掉此前涨幅。这似乎逐步侵蚀了crude oil价格中的地缘政治风险的溢价。


　　金价或进一步走高，而油价则可能表现疲软


　　日内素有风险情绪标杆之称的标普500indexfutures明显走低暗示市场倾向于避险。在贸易协议上，目前并无任何达成的迹象，这可能就足以打压市场风险偏好。在此背景下，原本需求高收益的资产可能转向涌入保值资产，金价则有望进一步走高。


　　与此同时，油价可能表现疲软，尽管北京时间（GMT+8）次日（8month28In the early morning of the day04:30PublishedAPI原油库存数据可能扰乱市场风险情绪。目前预计美国上周API原油库存可能再降213万桶。倘若库存数据录得更大的降幅则有望为油价提供支撑，反之，若降幅不及预期则可能加剧油价的抛售。


　　gold走势技术分析


　　周一金价试图向1535.05发起测试，但最终日图录得了射击之星形态；与此同时，RSI（相对强弱指标）显露熊背离迹象暗示金价可能正在构筑顶部。若后市金价跌破初步支撑1480.00，则进一步支撑关注区间1437.70-1452.95；反之，若有效上破1535.03则进一步阻力关注周线的关键价格汇集水平1563.00frontline.

　　

　　原油走势技术分析


　　油价正试图下破支撑区间53.95-54.84，为进一步下探近期低位50一线埋下铺垫；若后市进一步跌破50则可能跌向近3年来的支撑区间42.05-43.00；反之，关键阻力关注始于4月底以来的下行压力通道（目前通道上轨位于57.84）。

　　

Before the market situation emerges, everyone is predicting, and no one has an accurate answer. Whether it is technology or fundamentals, they are only assisting us in judging and increasing the probability. Regardless of the market situation and time, there will be different perspectives and directions in the market. So, how to have a unique prediction direction can we make the account funds increase with high success rate. Undoubtedly, it is a stable operating method, Stability has always been the pursuit of Yuan Zhe. As the saying goes, it is better to miss than to make mistakes. Choosing a good entry point is better than rushing in. The quality of the entry point determines the profit and loss of this order. A good position is one that can be attacked and defended, while a bad position is a dilemma that requires time. Of course, there is no lack of time verification, and the exchange of spatial profits is still the same as the saying, only by keeping in mind can we always be able to achieve it. Destiny does not refuse, fate does not stay, meeting and becoming friends in the vast sea of people is also a kind of fate. May your initiative exchange for satisfactory profits in the future, and you will definitely live up to your expectations!


　　以上出自分析师：公众号/王渊哲（官微：kz1338）