Wang Yuanzhe:8.27国际贸易重回谈判，谨防贵金属黄金高位出现踩踏

Why do we always struggle with trading? Is it because the market is not doing well now, is it because I am unlucky, or is there a problem with the teacher's guidance? Countless questions and answers ultimately depend on the mindset you are in to view this money filled market. From Yuan Zhe's perspective, it's not that the market itself is difficult to do, but rather that it can never pass its own hurdle. Almost all losses come from hedging, heavy positions, full positions, and counter trend operations. Secondly, there is a mentality of luck that always thinks of a pullback or rebound, and in the end, the market goes in the opposite direction, and opportunities flow away like this; Such situations often occur when operating on one's own; Quickly liquidate positions with profits, and bear losses to the death; It is what we commonly refer to as the "inability to hold onto" operation, where there is a lack of accuracy in building and closing positions.


　　gold消息面：特朗普就贸易谈判前景发表乐观评论，缓解了市场恐慌；此外，美国 7 月耐用品订单数据和 8 月达拉斯联储制造业指数强于预期提振了美元。市场把关注度集中在后半周美国GDPandPCE的数据上，若届时数据差于预期，将会增加美联储9Monthly interest rate reduction50个基点或年内多次降息的预期，于一定程度支撑避险资产。


　　黄金技术面：金价隔日一度冲高至1557美元附近，后随着上方套牢盘抛售以及部分多头获利了结，价格快速回落至1538美元附近整理，但欧盘时段随着避险情绪的消退，市场回到技术面格局当中。日kLine in high order1525-1480区间内震荡后被消息刺激强势上破，日线打开上行空间。均线指标依然处于多头排列运行，唯一不足点就是MACD指标高位连续性背离。小周期呈现出震荡上行格局，若金价日内守住1525一线，大概率上在1525-1538区间内运行，只有价格重新企稳在1538上方，才能使金价有效上扬，上方压制点分别在1544-1555。本交易日可将1525视为多空分界点，若金价有效下破，短期内金价下行风险加大，下方支撑依次在1517-1510。操作建议，激进投资者需关注欧盘时段，若价格始终不能有效上破1538一线，可轻仓放空，止损放在1543上方即可，目标看1525-1522。稳健投资者可保持观望。


　　crude oil消息面：随着G7峰会传来在法国撮合下伊朗与美国对峙有希望重启谈判，因法国总统马克龙提高了美国和伊朗达成协议的希望，提振伊朗原油供应增加的前景，但贸易情绪好转抑制了油价跌幅。现在市场投资者正在衡量，如果取得进展，能源市场可能重新会看到大量伊朗石油涌入市场的可能性，供应来源的增加或令此前悲观的需求形成更大的供需失衡。


　　原油技术面：油价日线级别呈现出震荡下行格局，目前价格运行至下降三角末端行情中，随着时间的推移价格走势上不断的收缩，高低点逐步减弱，令投资者操作上加大难度。从四小时级别看，MACD指标在零轴下方死叉运行，均线指标走向略有向下拐迹象，k线局部形态方面走出震荡行下，若后市价格有效下破53.7一线，油价将在此打开新一轮五浪下行推动结构。小时图走势较为明朗，当前处于震荡下行格局。日内重点关注54.4一线的压制点，若价格不能有效上破，油价将触及下方52几率加大，下方支撑点依次为53-52，上方压制点54.4-55。日内操作上可围绕54.4压制轻仓放空，止损给55That's it, look at the target53.6-53。


Before the market situation emerges, everyone is predicting, and no one has an accurate answer. Whether it is technology or fundamentals, they are only assisting us in judging and increasing the probability. Regardless of the market situation and time, there will be different perspectives and directions in the market. So, how to have a unique prediction direction can we make the account funds increase with high success rate. Undoubtedly, it is a stable operating method, Stability has always been the pursuit of Yuan Zhe. As the saying goes, it is better to miss than to make mistakes. Choosing a good entry point is better than rushing in. The quality of the entry point determines the profit and loss of this order. A good position is one that can be attacked and defended, while a bad position is a dilemma that requires time. Of course, there is no lack of time verification, and the exchange of spatial profits is still the same as the saying, only by keeping in mind can we always be able to achieve it. Destiny does not refuse, fate does not stay, meeting and becoming friends in the vast sea of people is also a kind of fate. May your initiative exchange for satisfactory profits in the future, and you will definitely live up to your expectations!


　　以上出自分析师：公众号/王渊哲（官微：kz1338）