Duan Haoyu:8.27美债收益率曲线继续反转黄金仍存降息风险！

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Duan Haoyu:8.27美债收益率曲线继续反转gold仍存降息风险！


美债收益率曲线继续反转


美国国债收益率周一(8month26day)保持稳定，尽管基准两年期国债收益率高于10年期国债收益率，这再次引发了近几周来困扰金融市场的经济衰退指标。美市尾盘，基准10年期美国国债收益率为1.533%，低于两年期的1.545%，进一步扭转了美国国债的走势。



固定收益交易员将这种两年期-10年期国债收益率的反转视为经济衰退的预测指标，但要准确预测GDP增长何时收缩则比较困难。这部分曲线的反转早于过去50年的每次衰退，而过去5次这一曲线的反转都导致了衰退。


According to data released on Monday, the United States7月耐用品订单环比增长2.1%，增幅超出预期，但出货量出现近三年来最大降幅，表明企业投资继续疲软。贸易摩擦让美联储处境艰难，政策制定者认为，贸易摩擦给全球企业活动造成的破坏是美国经济面临的风险。


interest ratefutures走势暗示，交易商预期美联储将在9month17-18日政策会议上降息25个基点。芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME)ofFedWatch工具显示，联邦基金利率合约走势暗示，预期美联储将在9月之后至少再降息一次。


欧盘黄金行情走势分析及操作建议：


黄金从周线来看，单边上涨；MACD金叉运行，均线多头排列，MACD高位钝化，黄金仍处于多头，而且还没有出现顶部信号，后市存在进一步冲高机会；目前正试探2013year2Monthly low point1555，若顶破该阻力，若顶破该阻力，则中线可能涨向2013year3Month high point1616Nearby. In addition,2013year4month12Daily and weekly highs1590and1600整数关口也分别存在阻力。但金价短线涨幅过大，已经消化了大部分利多因素，上方还有1555附近强阻力位，需要提防“靴子落地”行情和多头获利了结；关注段浩雨威信dhy776Keep up with market information and grasp major trends to help you make steady profits!



黄金从日线来看，震荡上涨；金价冲高至1554美元高点后有所回落，但整体持稳涨势；金价早些时候冲高受阻，短线存在回补缺口的风险，初步支撑在1535Nearby, then8month16The daily high is supported by1528Nearby,5The daily moving average is supported by1520附近，若收复该位置，则增加短线见顶信号。若黄金坚守1528附近支撑，并上破1555附近阻力，则增加后市看涨信号。技术面来看，KDJ重新结成金叉随机指标大幅走高，MACD也有金叉迹象红色动能柱隐现，但MACD显然再次顶背离，需要提防见顶风险。综合来看：今日操作思路上段浩雨个人建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方重点关注1550-1555Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1520-1525一线支撑。若有不懂或跟不上操作的朋友可关注段浩雨，获取更多实时指导。


欧盘黄金参考策略：


1Gold rebound1538-1540Short nearby, stop loss4Points, target1530-1528Nearby. Break the position to see1525frontline;


2Gold Callback1524-1526Long nearby, stop loss4Points, target1532-1535Nearby, break down and take a look1540frontline;


Real time guidance - real-time reminders of entry and exit points, unstoppable winning streak


When investing, don't worry about making yourself rich overnight, but also make yourself valuable. In the process of investing, cultivate your mentality, improve your inner experience, be calm, don't be greedy, don't be impatient. If you are confused when investing, then it is because you think too much and do too little. Why do you set orders? Because you are greedy, why don't you make money? Because you think too much, don't make money when you should, make you happy when you make a profit, and make you anxious when you make a loss.


In fact, many investors have a chance to turn around after losing money, but they are too psychologically impacted and find it difficult to accept at the moment. In fact, investment friends like this have complete opportunities as long as their inner strength is strong enough not to be overwhelmed by temporary difficulties. If their inner strength is not strong enough, they may have to bear the pain of failure. Ultimately, when it comes to investing, as an investor, whether it's temporary losses or gains, we need to have a strong mentality and a high degree of vigilance. When investing, we also look at long-term returns. Today's profits do not necessarily mean that you will also be able to make profits tomorrow, and today's losses do not necessarily mean that you will continue to lose. Always maintain a sense of awe in order to better control this investment.


The market is like a battlefield. In the end, it's about fighting people, fighting wealthy people, fighting wealthy people without using their brains, and not seeking professional help. Do you want to use money to fight alone. In short, when it comes to thinking and getting, there is still one thing to do in between: guiding for eight years, reading through thousands of people, doing countless market changes, understanding the essence of the market, understanding the essence of trading through ups and downs, returning to simplicity after all the ups and downs, not expecting to turn positions overnight in the illusory, but hoping to make small profits and be safe every week. When we meet in the market, my responsibility is to preach, impart knowledge, and dispel doubts, so that you can avoid detours as much as possible, and to analyze and make rational judgments with care, only to prevent those who follow from getting lost,2019I will only find a good way out for your future investment, and when you find me, it may also be the time for you to make a comeback.



Mindset is certainly important, but more importantly, it's about making a profit. If a teacher doesn't help you make money and makes your mindset better every day, isn't that nonsense? Imagine, after entering the market, I haven't made any money. My initial goal was to make money, but later it turned out to be wanting to recoup and get rid of the situation. How could my mentality be good? I kept closing profits continuously and doubled my position. How could my mentality be bad? My goal is to make you profitable.


Author of this article: Duan Haoyu [reprinted, please indicate source]


authoritydhy776（VLetter official account: Duan Haoyu)


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