Zhang Benxin8.25Analysis and prediction of the trend of gold and crude oil next week, regarding the strategy of unwinding

　　------goldTrend analysis



In the past week, the market has been mainly dominated by speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the international trade situation, and the market's risk aversion has significantly increased. There is still a possibility of further fermentation in the coming week, but there are still some important economic data worth paying attention to, mainly the United States7Monthly durable goods order data, US Q2GPDCorrection data, United States7monthPCEData, Eurozone8monthCPIData and China's manufacturing industryPMIdata In terms of events, the main focus is on the progress of the international trade situation and the speeches of some Federal Reserve officials.


The trend of gold has remained stable until the US market on Friday1500The next few dollars of volatility followed a sudden burst of big news in hedging, with gold prices rebounding from low levels to1500Above, subsequently, due to Powell's speech, the market felt that the Federal Reserve seemed to be making a moderate adjustment to interest rates. But if the global outlook continues to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve may need to take more meaningful interest rate cuts, which will have a negative impact on the US dollar and trigger financial market panic. Gold continues to have a safe haven attribute, and the US stock market continues to soar significantly, reaching a peak of1530Da Guan, the upward trend can be said to have stopped if there is no response,Amazing! In the short term, gold is currently returning1520Above the threshold, there is no doubt that gold is still in an upward trend within the week1492多次不破，上涨也是有基础的，一直强调黄金只是缺少市场一个刺激，只要刺激到位，买盘就会跟风上涨，那么，自然黄金的上涨就会爆发出来，所以，大家昨晚看到的行情就是张本鑫一直强调的走法，综合来看，下周一操作思路上张本鑫个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注1533-1535One line of resistance, pay attention below1493Near.


Suggestions for Gold Operations:


　　1Rebound1535Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1522-1520；


　　2Callback1519Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1528-1530；


　　------crude oilTrend analysis


Analyzing crude oil on a daily basis this weekEIAData bullish did not provide guidance on the direction of oil price increases,EIAThe data is positive, but crude oil has not broken through57.2Suppressing but falling under pressure due to the release of positive data. Direct crude oil starts black on Friday, and the market breaks through on Friday53.5It's much lower. On the daily analysis, it fell directly below the middle track today, and the Bollinger Bands opened with downward risks. The daily chart has directly fallen below the European market last Friday55The support directly triggered a sharp decline, indicating that the daily crude oil market is still biased towards a bearish trend. crude oil4The upward channel that breaks through the second lowest point in the hour breaks the rebound trend, while the low point restructures a small cycle downward channel. However, yesterday's high point56.45Becoming today's bearish critical point, relying on the second highest point for defense in the short term to further see a decline, while the downward trend line pressure of the two high points is55.80-56.0.此位也是周四尾盘反弹的高点，下周初在此位处先行看空。综合来看，下周一操作思路上张本鑫个人建议以反弹高空为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注55.8-56.2Frontline resistance, short-term focus below53.0-53.2Frontline support.


Suggestions for Gold Operations:


　　1Rebound1535Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1522-1520；


　　2Callback1519Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1528-1530；

Different situations have different ways of unraveling, so what should be done specifically in case of a single quilt being unraveled?



Scenario 1: When tying up, according to the chart analysis, if the purchased price is at a high level, the loss must be immediately stopped.


Scenario 2: If the purchased price is in the middle range, you can temporarily wait and see based on the situation at that time, in order to unwind and leave the market or reduce losses when the position is high.


Scenario 3: If the purchased price is at a low level, there is no need to rush to stop the loss. After the purchased price stabilizes, one should dare to cover the position at a low level in important support positions, dilute costs, and rescue the high locked position together in the subsequent rebound market.


Scenario 4: If the price of the purchased item is on an upward trend, there is no need to stop the loss. Patiently holding it for a period of time will inevitably unwind, and there may even be a possibility of significant profits.


Scenario 5: If the purchased price is in a balanced and volatile trend, there is no need to immediately stop the loss. Be patient and wait for the price to enter a high level of a volatile cycle. Once the situation is resolved or the loss is small, you should decisively exit the market., Teaching people how to fish is not as good as teaching them how to fish. Here, not only are there calling for a spot, but there are also operational ideas and skills for making orders!


Scenario 6: If the price of the purchased item is in a downward trend, once it is confirmed that the downward trend has formed, the loss should be immediately stopped, and one must not be worried about gains or losses and have illusions. Any hesitation or hesitation may result in deep confinement.


Message: The retention of a glass of wine in the port of millions of people, the breakthrough of a sentence in the waiting of tens of thousands of people, even if exhausted, we will continue to embrace tomorrow. You cannot be my guest, just as I cannot be your teacher. Today's persistence will cause tomorrow's regret. Some people celebrate the market they seized, while others regret making mistakes in the market. You're here, I'm here, you're not here, I'm still here!


May you and I start with words and match our personalities,Trapped in technology, long after kindness, finally character.
   writing/Zhang Benxin