Zhou Hongjin:8.24两大事件引爆黄金；原油黄金下周开盘行情走势及策略

　　为什么要找一个好的老师？纵观各个行业，没有哪一个行业是不需要老师的，所谓师者，传道授业解惑也，因为有了老师我们可以少走很多的弯路，在我们遇到难关的时候老师可以给我们及时的指点，所有的投资大师，其中有80%是在遇到了好的老师之后从此才走上成功之路的，由此可以证明有老师的必要性。对应的正确方式是：在真正进入市场的时候有一个好个指导老师，你随时有问题可以向他请教，他可以及时的给你指出你自已所不能发现的但是你身上存在的错误。
　　下周重点关注：
In the past week, the market has been mainly dominated by speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the international trade situation, and the market's risk aversion has significantly increased. There is still a possibility of further fermentation in the coming week, but there are still some important economic data worth paying attention to, mainly the United States7Monthly durable goods order data, US Q2GPDCorrection data, United States7monthPCEData, Eurozone8monthCPIData and China's manufacturing industryPMIdata In terms of events, the main focus is on the progress of the international trade situation and the speeches of some Federal Reserve officials.

　　

　　goldTrend analysis：
　　
　　刚刚过去的一周，金价整体先跌后涨，原本国际局势有所缓和，美联储会议纪要重申7月降息只是周期中的调整，美国就业数据也非常稳健，这些给美元提供支撑，令金价多次回落至1500整数关口下方，最低触及1492.20dollar/盎司，但随着中国方面提出关税反制措施，美国股市大幅下跌，避险情绪显着升温；再加上美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话偏向鸽派，美元也大幅走弱，也给金价提供上涨动能。截至收盘，现货黄金收报1526.96dollar/盎司，周线涨幅0.91%, highest touch1530.11, distance8month13日创下的逾六年高点仅一步之遥。
　　
　　展望后市，不管是国际局势引发的避险情绪，还是美联储降息50个基点的预期回升，都给金价提供了强劲的上涨动能，而且显然，由于中国的反制措施是在周五亚洲市场收盘之后，下周一(8month26day)亚洲市场还会继续消化这些影响，有望给金价提供进一步上涨动能。另外，对于下周美国7月份的耐用品订单数据和美国7monthPCE数据的表现，投资者也需要予以留意。
　　
　　技术面来看，金价在8Month high point1535附近阻力还是比较强的，进一步阻力在2013year4month4Daily high point1540.08附近，若不能站稳在该位置上方，则仍需要提防多单借机获利了结，进而增加金价的见顶风险；若金价强势顶破1540Nearby resistance is expected to be further explored2013year2month21Daily low point1555.17附近阻力。日线图MACDDead fork,5Daily moving average underpass10日均线形成死叉，关注3268735920金价强势收复10日均线一度触及1530.32上方通道重新打开，金价偏向进一步上探8month13Daily high point1535.11Nearby resistance,2013year4month4Resistance at daily low points1540.08附近，鸿.金认为该位置阻力都极较强，短线有效上破的可能性不大。5Daily moving average at1506.16；10Daily moving average at1509.66；在失守5Daily moving average and10日均线之前金价偏向上行；综合来看，下周一操作思路上周鸿金个人建议低多为主，高空为辅；
　　
　　Focus on resistance above:1530.32；1535.11；1540.08；
　　
Pay attention to support below:1519.02；1509.66；1502.96；

　　

　　Gold operation suggestions：
　　
　　1Rebound1535Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1522-1520；
　　
　　2Callback1519Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1528-1530；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646Get real-time strategies and free solutions.
　　
　　crude oilTrend analysis：
　　
　　刚刚过去的一周，国际油价整体呈现震荡下行的走势，一方面是EIA汽油库存和精炼油库存的意外增加，令市场担忧需求疲软，这对油价形成承压，另一方面，则是国际局势的恶化，加剧了全球经济的悲观预期，进一步打压原油的需求前景，令油价大幅走弱；技术面来看，油价仍处于下行通道，后市仍有进一步下行风险。
　　
　　展望后市，国际局势的现状使得油价存在进一步下行风险，50美元的支撑位对于美原油来说非常重要，若跌破的话，将进一步跌向去年12Month end low point42.36dollar/桶附近。但值得注意的，如果油价进一步下滑，料9month12日的联合监督委员会可能会变成一个部长级紧急会议，以考虑更快的削减产量。OPEC+可能会被迫在2020年春季再削减10010000 barrels/日，如果近期宏观经济环境恶化，那么OPEC+的时间表可能会提前。此前，沙特能源部长法利赫表达想要削减石油库存超过2亿桶以支撑油价的言论，但市场并没有受到冲击，且没有体现出丝毫的敬畏。分析人士指出，沙特通过减产曾多次令油价起死回生。投资者需要关注OPEC是否在12month25日会议之前，继续采取措施抑制石油产量。
　　
　　技术面来看，油价仍处于下行通道，而且下行趋势线和200日均线对油价压制明显，日线图KDJ重新结成死叉，后市油价存在进一步下行风险；目前下行通道下轨支撑在50整数关口附近，当然布林线下轨52.60and8month7Daily low point50.52附近也存在一下支撑。上方则留意200Daily moving average56.22附近阻力，鸿.金认为若意外收复该位置，则削弱后市看空信号，关注3268735920短线的话8month22Daily low point54.85附近也形成了一下阻力。布林线中轨阻力在55.45附近；若顶破该阻力，则削弱短线看空信号；综合来看，下周一操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；
　　
　　Focus on resistance above:54.16；55.45；55.71；
　　
Pay attention to support below:53.25；52.6；51.94；

　　

　　Crude oil operation suggestions：
　　
　　1Callback53.2Do not break long, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target54.0-54.2；
　　
　　2Rebound55.4Stop loss without breaking short0.5US dollars, look at the target53.6-53.4；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646Get real-time strategies and free solutions.
　　
　　1Special reminder: Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and waiting patiently for the best opportunity to sell, and avoiding frequent trading is one of the recognized winning secrets. Do not attempt to seize all fluctuations, nor expect to grasp every segment of the market. Judging the market situation is only a part of trading. Investors also need to have a reverence for the market, remember trading discipline, and strictly control their positions to reduce greed, overcome fear, and try to maintain a calm mind when trading.
　　
　　2Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
　　
　　3Experience benefits: For investment friends who are interested in consulting and cooperating, it is convenient for mutual trust in future cooperation and can be experienced with screenshots of actual positions3Tian Shou Dan, you can choose whether to cooperate based on your earnings in the future! I believe this welfare is a good turning point opportunity for friends who have suffered long-term losses in the market and investors who have lost confidence. Whether you seize the opportunity depends on your choice.
　　
　　鸿金寄语-----
　　
There is a saying in the capital market: "Patience is an investment, and patience is the prerequisite for success." The courage and strategy of spot investment are necessary, and patience cannot be lacking! Spot trading must cultivate good endurance, which is often the key to investment success or failure. Many investors do not lack analytical skills or investment experience, but rather a high level of patience. Buying or selling too early can lead to pointless waste of time and loss of money.
　　
Investing in spot goods requires patience, seeking market opportunities requires waiting, and patience is needed; Holding a position is a process that requires investment of time, and therefore requires a high degree of patience, vision, and foresight. Do not be restless due to fluctuations in prices.
　　
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