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刘煜贤:解析当前市场消息,黄金趋势问答

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  在周五全球央行年会的讲话中,美联储主席鲍威尔毫不掩饰鸽派立场,他称美联储将采取适当的措施保持经济扩张,并称美国经济面临显著风险。鲍威尔讲话表明市场并没有高估美联储继续降息的决定,根据联邦基金利率futures的暗示,美联储9月份降息几率达到100%。
  
  解析鲍威尔的周五讲话的所处动向:
  
  美联储主席鲍威尔在发表在周五演讲时面临三个问题。首先,美联储能否继续维持其独立性,不向总统川普施加的压力低头?其次,当前的经济数据是否能够支持美联储采取额外的宽松措施?最后,面对来自于国际上包括英国脱欧、欧洲央行政策态度转变、德国经济衰退等不确定因素时,美联储是否应大幅降息以支撑美国经济?刘煜贤认为面对这三个问题,美联储在接下来三周内不会做出决定。昨日美国8Monthly manufacturing industryPMI录得十年新低,预计至9月中旬,美国通胀也不会达到2%或以上的水平。预计美联储应当有足够的政策弹药,足以支撑其在9month18日再度降息25Basis points.
  
  [会议后]according toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate reduction25Bps to1.75%-2%的概率为99.6%Interest rate reduction50The probability of a basis point is0.4%; reach10Monthly interest rate reduction25Bps to1.75%-2%的概率为34.7%Interest rate reduction50Bps to1.50%-1.75%的概率为65.1%。
  
  [会议前]according toCME“美联储观察”:美联储降息25Bps to1.75%-2%的概率为95.8%Interest rate reduction50The probability of a basis point is0%; reach10Monthly interest rate reduction25Bps to1.75%-2%的概率为37.1%Interest rate reduction50Bps to1.50%-1.75%的概率为61.4%。
  
  综合以上基本条件恰恰在次验证符合了前面二周刘煜贤一直强调的一个条件:“大家记住九月还有一次降息,在收月线收官前一般运行在1480-1530之间”。大家可以一一翻阅,就在昨天有位铁粉问老师我做了1495空单如何操作,当时价格就在1495,我说当场处理反多,关切月内区间在上方1527,以此位逢低捞多为主!周五是在亚欧盘再次送于在线直接送达,在线没有问的或者自己默默做错的又有多少人在迷茫之中?
  
  技术上,gold窄幅盘整在20日均线受到支持后大涨,周五一举突破1500直接指向关键阻力1530(2011-2013年振荡底部),若后续有效突破该阻力料将打开更大上行空间。而若受阻暂时回调,则关注1520-1510等支撑,但是必须谨记这种回调只是牛市行情中的修正。
  
Short term operation, refer to the following:
  
  1,黄金短线1530下方调整,中期调整后继续观察走上行,同时注意下周后半段周三,周四,周五的上升拐点风险。因此短线空头稳健目标看于1516-1513之间。至于有人问1510and1500能否再度下破,如果行情如期回调区间,随后走震荡那可能就面临拐点调头的风险,如果受消息影响直接走下,那就存在概率。
  
  市场涨跌两重天,交易成败在细节,细节的支撑点是在与内在心境的把控,行情可以乱,但是内心不能乱!
  
WeChat announced the current price list in advance,17Investors who have lost tens of thousands of dollars are on the road to recoup their losses!
  
After passing through17After a loss of ten thousand US dollars, Mr. Li did not lose confidence in the market, but chose to believe in Liu Yuxian and invest in gold2.1Ten thousand dollars to keep up with the operation, making a profit in less than a week2.3万美金,为了资金周转选择先出掉本金。留下利润继续操作,可能你会存在质疑,一周翻了一倍怎么可能,但事实却是操作十单其中有五单刘煜贤提前公布于微圈,我们操作每一单都有迹可循,绝非信口开河!每天都会在公布现价单有需要的朋友可以关注。
  
My daily analysis of thoughts is all on WeChat, and I publish transactions in real-time on Pengyouquan. I'm not afraid of you asking questions or not being able to find directions. Join us to searchV:lyx201037663
  
As for some people who may say, "How long can I hold on to a deep set of orders in my hand?" Therefore, it is necessary to judge based on your position report. In response to this situation, five or six investors have contacted the topic that I am most concerned about. At that time, I will also provide the most timely countermeasures based on real-time market trends.
  
Liu Yuxian
  
  8.24(Writing))
  
  
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