美联储主席鲍威尔讲话提及“中周期调整”的次数为零。“中周期调整”一直被市场认为是最大的鹰派威胁,单晨金认为鲍威尔此次发言略显鸽派。值得注意的是,鲍威尔发言后,降息概率有所增加。鲍威尔发言期间,国际黄金5分钟内波动近5美元,一度升破1510dollar/盎司,刷新四日高位,日内涨幅0.8%;预计美联储9Monthly interest rate reduction25Bps to1.75%-2%的概率略有上升,从95.8%Ascend to99.6%;降息50The probability of a basis point from0%Ascend to0.4%。
Analyzing crude oil on a daily basis this weekEIAData bullish did not provide guidance on the direction of oil price increases,EIAThe data is positive, but crude oil has not broken through57.2压制而是在数据公布利多承压下跌。在金万升写行情的时候原油出现一波大跌了,直接原油周五开启黑色周五行情跌破53.5It's much lower. On the daily analysis, it fell directly below the middle track today, and the Bollinger Bands opened with downward risks. The daily chart has directly fallen below the European market last Friday55支撑直接开启暴跌,说明日线上原油还是偏向空头行情。
Crude oil4The upward channel that breaks through the second lowest point in the hour breaks the rebound trend, while the low point restructures a small cycle downward channel. However, yesterday's high point56.45Becoming today's bearish critical point, relying on the second highest point for defense in the short term to further see a decline, while the downward trend line pressure of the two high points is55.80-56.0.此位也是周四尾盘反弹的高点,下周初在此位处先行看空。综合来看,下周一操作思路上金万升个人建议以反弹高空为主,反弹高空为辅,上方短期重点关注54.6-54.8Frontline resistance, short-term focus below53.0-53.2Frontline support.
Suggestions for crude oil operations next Monday:
1Crude oil rebounded to54.6-54.8Short on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target53.6-53.8frontline;
2Crude oil callback to53.0-53.2Long on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target53.8-54.0frontline;