Wang Yuanzhe:8.23贵金属黄金原油走势分析及晚间短线操作建议

Why do we always struggle with trading? Is it because the market is not doing well now, is it because I am unlucky, or is there a problem with the teacher's guidance? Countless questions and answers ultimately depend on the mindset you are in to view this money filled market. From Yuan Zhe's perspective, it's not that the market itself is difficult to do, but rather that it can never pass its own hurdle. Almost all losses come from hedging, heavy positions, full positions, and counter trend operations. Secondly, there is a mentality of luck that always thinks of a pullback or rebound, and in the end, the market goes in the opposite direction, and opportunities flow away like this; Such situations often occur when operating on one's own; Quickly liquidate positions with profits, and bear losses to the death; It is what we commonly refer to as the "inability to hold onto" operation, where there is a lack of accuracy in building and closing positions.


　　为期三天的全球央行年会，将于8month23Solstice26日在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开。该会议素有政策拐点“晴雨表”之称，今年的主题为“货币政策面临的挑战”。本次大会有三大看点，看点一：鲍威尔的发言，市场目前关注的焦点在于鲍威尔是否还会坚持此前的观点，美联储是处于降息周期的开始，还是仅为了应对潜在经济衰退的短暂降息。看点二：如何应对经济衰退的风险。看点三：由于对全球经济衰退的担忧不断加剧，各国央行纷纷降息。在过去的半年中，已有印度、澳大利亚、韩国、马来西亚、俄罗斯、土耳其、南非等十多个经济体采取了一次或数次降息措施。连美联储在8月初也首次降息，那么如何保持货币政策的效力致关重要。对于我们投资者而言，大会期间我们要谨防市场波幅加大，由于美联储并没有真正进入降息周期，美元和非美货币还将会呈现强弱格局，金银会承压。

　　今日亚盘gold再度延续了近期的震荡走低的特点，现报价1493.95；亚洲股市整体的上涨，使得风险情绪缓和，金价承压下跌。日内除关注欧美股市的走势之外，投资者重点关注22:00美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行年会上的讲话。


　　整体技术面来看，黄金维持在高位震荡回调之中。金价始终维持在1490区域上方；在形态上价格处于上涨旗型旗面的整理之中。下方1490/88区域是重要的支撑区域，只要该区域不被跌破，黄金仍然延续上涨的可能性较大。而当前位置经济已经接近重要的多空风水岭区域，不宜再去追空黄金。按照当前的整体趋势博弈黄金的多头。价格1493.92直接参与多头，防守1488Look up1507,1517

​

　　crude oil方面：伊朗方面周三表示，如果伊朗的石油出口减少到零，国际水道将不会像以前一样安全，警告华盛顿不要对伊朗施加更大压力。油价正是在避险的支撑下，连续小幅上涨，而目前油价受需求增长放缓影响，趋势上明显偏向下行，而目前市场都在等待全球央行大会给出的进一步信号，基于此判断，我们分析原油这轮上涨是6-8小时级别的，理论上涨到今天本周五将会结束。


　　从技术面来看，原油亚盘小幅的震荡，现报价55.27；日内重点关注欧美股市的走势对于原油的影响。从技术面来看，日线级别上这两天油价的收盘价始终收在了趋势线压力位的下方，原油日K线组合已经形成明显的黄昏之星；1小时图形态上价格头肩顶已经形成，隔夜价格反抽颈线位位置后回落。因此，日内价格反抽颈线位区域及55.5区域参与空头，防守55.9Take a look below54.8,54.00


Before the market situation emerges, everyone is predicting, and no one has an accurate answer. Whether it is technology or fundamentals, they are only assisting us in judging and increasing the probability. Regardless of the market situation and time, there will be different perspectives and directions in the market. So, how to have a unique prediction direction can we make the account funds increase with high success rate. Undoubtedly, it is a stable operating method, Stability has always been the pursuit of Yuan Zhe. As the saying goes, it is better to miss than to make mistakes. Choosing a good entry point is better than rushing in. The quality of the entry point determines the profit and loss of this order. A good position is one that can be attacked and defended, while a bad position is a dilemma that requires time. Of course, there is no lack of time verification, and the exchange of spatial profits is still the same as the saying, only by keeping in mind can we always be able to achieve it. Destiny does not refuse, fate does not stay, meeting and becoming friends in the vast sea of people is also a kind of fate. May your initiative exchange for satisfactory profits in the future, and you will definitely live up to your expectations!


　　以上出自分析师：公众号/王渊哲（官微：kz1338）