Wang Yuanzhe:8.23贵金属黄金原油走势分析及最新短线操作建议

Why do we always struggle with trading? Is it because the market is not doing well now, is it because I am unlucky, or is there a problem with the teacher's guidance? Countless questions and answers ultimately depend on the mindset you are in to view this money filled market. From Yuan Zhe's perspective, it's not that the market itself is difficult to do, but rather that it can never pass its own hurdle. Almost all losses come from hedging, heavy positions, full positions, and counter trend operations. Secondly, there is a mentality of luck that always thinks of a pullback or rebound, and in the end, the market goes in the opposite direction, and opportunities flow away like this; Such situations often occur when operating on one's own; Quickly liquidate positions with profits, and bear losses to the death; It is what we commonly refer to as the "inability to hold onto" operation, where there is a lack of accuracy in building and closing positions.


　　gold方面，今日将召开杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，在会议前，美联储多位官员发表相对鹰派的讲话，进一步降低了9月份降息的预期和未来连续降息的预期，并且市场预计鲍威尔可能在会议上发表相对温和的讲话，以安抚市场担忧经济衰退的情绪。避险情绪出现缓和迹象。


　　而另一方面，美国昨晚公布的8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI初值跌至50之下，服务业PMI公布值同样不及预期，表明经济放缓迹象确实存在。与此同时，美国十年期国债和两年期国债收益率第三次出现倒挂。


　　市场既要担忧经济放缓，又希望从大会上获得对未来经济的信心。随着避险情绪的缓和，金价近期维持高位震荡，谨防出现大幅回调。

　　昨天金价开盘于1502.29，盘中最高1504.47, minimum1492.35，收盘以一根带有下影的实体小阴报收于1497.86.基本符合预期。从昨天的运行节奏来看，亚盘以1504受阻回落缓慢下行，在欧盘出现加速最低触击1492一线后在美盘再次创出高点，随后再次震荡回落。


　　从当前盘面来看，日图空头不变，但整个区间昨天我们明确提到仍然没有打破，这也触使昨天价格探底回升，而四小时图价格明显处于区间，上方1509Below1492都是关键位，而系统昨天也是在1492.5上第一次发出多的信号，而当下我们可以看到昨晚二次反抽的次高点是1502，回撤的二次起涨点是1495.8，因此从格局上来看亚盘预期运行位在1495.8-1502之间，下方关键位1493.5，而从趋势来看，如第一张图日图仍然是属于调整格局，也就是说战略上主空不变，做多为辅，而日内转折点在1498.5这里，从时间窗口来看今天是个变盘日，价格能否打破盘局取决于晚间鲍威尔的讲话，综合来看，亚盘操作上继续看区间，1502.8-1493之间操作。


Suggestion:1493-1502.8Interoperability and defense4块，目标5-10块，盘中短线以实时提示为主。


　　crude oil方面：近日关于原油的基本面较少，由于昨日晚间公布美国制造业PMI指数不及预期，市场矛盾性表现明显，在担忧经济放缓的同时，又期待关于美联储更多的经济未大幅放缓的消息。所以杰克森霍尔也必将影响油价，若传递出利好信号，油价有望再次上冲。

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　　技术面上看，日图已经出现弱空，今天无需太多的费话，油价日线高点下移，呈震荡下行，上方57美元一线阻力强劲，前日触及此位置之后回落，昨日最低触及55美元一线，目前在此区域内震荡。短线上方关注56美元的日内阻力，以55.55-80分批入场，目标不设，待下破54.5后反抽54.9加空，下看53.85frontline.


Before the market situation emerges, everyone is predicting, and no one has an accurate answer. Whether it is technology or fundamentals, they are only assisting us in judging and increasing the probability. Regardless of the market situation and time, there will be different perspectives and directions in the market. So, how to have a unique prediction direction can we make the account funds increase with high success rate. Undoubtedly, it is a stable operating method, Stability has always been the pursuit of Yuan Zhe. As the saying goes, it is better to miss than to make mistakes. Choosing a good entry point is better than rushing in. The quality of the entry point determines the profit and loss of this order. A good position is one that can be attacked and defended, while a bad position is a dilemma that requires time. Of course, there is no lack of time verification, and the exchange of spatial profits is still the same as the saying, only by keeping in mind can we always be able to achieve it. Destiny does not refuse, fate does not stay, meeting and becoming friends in the vast sea of people is also a kind of fate. May your initiative exchange for satisfactory profits in the future, and you will definitely live up to your expectations!


　　以上出自分析师：公众号/王渊哲（官微：kz1338）