Wang Yuanzhe:8.22贵金属黄金原油走势分析，窄幅震荡日内操作建议

Why do we always struggle with trading? Is it because the market is not doing well now, is it because I am unlucky, or is there a problem with the teacher's guidance? Countless questions and answers ultimately depend on the mindset you are in to view this money filled market. From Yuan Zhe's perspective, it's not that the market itself is difficult to do, but rather that it can never pass its own hurdle. Almost all losses come from hedging, heavy positions, full positions, and counter trend operations. Secondly, there is a mentality of luck that always thinks of a pullback or rebound, and in the end, the market goes in the opposite direction, and opportunities flow away like this; Such situations often occur when operating on one's own; Quickly liquidate positions with profits, and bear losses to the death; It is what we commonly refer to as the "inability to hold onto" operation, where there is a lack of accuracy in building and closing positions.

　　昨天金价早盘以1508压制后在欧盘最低触及1496.3，晚间受消息面刺激最高反抽1407.5，从整个运行格局来看与预期一样。


　　基本面：从昨晚的美联储会议纪要来看， 多位与会者表示，他们认为对经济造成压力的许多风险的性质，以及这些风险可能在何时化解并不明朗，都彰显出政策制定者保持灵活性，并关注后续数据对经济前景影响的必要性，大多数与会者认为，此次会议降息25个基点的提议是调整政策立场的一部分，或者说是周期中调整的一部分，以应对近几个月来经济前景呈现的最新发展。


　　从风险管理角度来看，在此次会议上放松政策是谨慎的步骤，两位与会者希望在此次会议上降息50个基点，而不是25个基点，几位与会者希望此次会议上维持利率不变，因认为受益于消费者充满信心、就业市场强劲和失业率偏低，实体经济继续保持良好状态，与会者普遍认为，不确定性相关的风险将对经济前景构成持续阻力，一些与会者表示担心国债收益率曲线倒挂持续了大约两个月，可能表明市场参与者预计经济状况将变得疲弱，美联储将很快需要大幅降息，与会者继续认为最可能的情况是经济活动持续扩张，劳动力市场状况良好，通胀率接近2%的对称性目标。


　　从利益角度来看，二狗为了拉得更多选票仍将继续炮哄美联储加大降息力度，在全球经济衰退的局面下，美国只有继续薅羊毛才能最大收益，美联储成立后没有一次例外，薅羊毛最好弄得就是在弄个世界危机，美国才能薅世界羊毛，目前降息是为了后面加息做铺垫，跳得越高摔得越狠，近日，美银美林报告称，美联储预计在2019yearQ4将被迫重启QE，缓解市场的大量流动性需求，否则市场就会陷入流动性危机。无独有偶，即使美联储停止缩表，美国银行系统的流动性还会继续紧缩，美联储不得不马上重启QE，因此重头戏仍然后边。


　　其次由于昨晚的与会者意见发生分歧，对于金价的刺激力度并不够，最高就到达1507.5，而本周最大的亮点集中到了周五晚间美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话了，根据历史行情来看，过去13年杰克逊霍尔会议以后第一个交易日现货goldhave10次上涨。此外，美联储主席在内的各国央行高管将发表重要演说，有望释放更明确的货币政策信号，届时黄金的走势将进一步明朗。


　　技术面从日图来看，均线系统5Japan and Japan10日死叉向下，但整个价格重新进入三角窄幅震荡中，如果市场没有大的消息面刺激很难打破这个局面，从四小时图来看布林带收口，上线1512, offline1493.5，而小时图上方1506.7Below1497.5，所以总结下来今天没有什么太多的技术含量，继续做区间就好，因此得出以下结论：


Suggestion:1497.5-1507之间靠近哪边搞哪边，各止损4块钱，目标7-8块收工，破位后根据盘面我们待定。

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Yesterdaycrude oil冲高回落，在EIA利多局面下不涨反跌，主要受制于美国能源部将在10-11月提供1000万桶战略石油储备，其次最近的油价从运行格局来看操作上难度加大，从上周五和昨天的运行来看基本一致，价格全部上破短期下降趋势线后不延续反而出现诱多，而从早盘来看，日图虽然昨天冲空回落，但整个均线系统仍然成多头排列，短期重要防守位在55.2这里，而中性位在55.6，日内多空转折点在56.16，上方强压力在56.8，因此亚盘回落继续低多不变，空单集中到晚间。


　　建议：回抽55.6-4之间多单入场，防守55.1，目标不设，见56.15走一半，用一半的利润设止损，突破看高到56.5-8分批走人。


Before the market situation emerges, everyone is predicting, and no one has an accurate answer. Whether it is technology or fundamentals, they are only assisting us in judging and increasing the probability. Regardless of the market situation and time, there will be different perspectives and directions in the market. So, how to have a unique prediction direction can we make the account funds increase with high success rate. Undoubtedly, it is a stable operating method, Stability has always been the pursuit of Yuan Zhe. As the saying goes, it is better to miss than to make mistakes. Choosing a good entry point is better than rushing in. The quality of the entry point determines the profit and loss of this order. A good position is one that can be attacked and defended, while a bad position is a dilemma that requires time. Of course, there is no lack of time verification, and the exchange of spatial profits is still the same as the saying, only by keeping in mind can we always be able to achieve it. Destiny does not refuse, fate does not stay, meeting and becoming friends in the vast sea of people is also a kind of fate. May your initiative exchange for satisfactory profits in the future, and you will definitely live up to your expectations!


　　以上出自分析师：王渊哲（公众号：KDJ1335，官微：kz1338）