Wang Yuanzhe:8.21外汇黄金原油走势分析及晚间短线操作建议

Why do we always struggle with trading? Is it because the market is not doing well now, is it because I am unlucky, or is there a problem with the teacher's guidance? Countless questions and answers ultimately depend on the mindset you are in to view this money filled market. From Yuan Zhe's perspective, it's not that the market itself is difficult to do, but rather that it can never pass its own hurdle. Almost all losses come from hedging, heavy positions, full positions, and counter trend operations. Secondly, there is a mentality of luck that always thinks of a pullback or rebound, and in the end, the market goes in the opposite direction, and opportunities flow away like this; Such situations often occur when operating on one's own; Quickly liquidate positions with profits, and bear losses to the death; It is what we commonly refer to as the "inability to hold onto" operation, where there is a lack of accuracy in building and closing positions.

　　gold我们先谈个短中期走势在消息面之前，价格将会围绕1508这个点进行多空角逐！目前来看空头占据上风，那么欧盘大概率事件是价格要去试探1492区域的支撑，欧盘破位1490的可能性不高，所以价格会在1508-1492之间徘徊，我们重点是观察美盘以后的情况，美盘还是有一些消息面的，但是我们预计不会有太大的影响，能起到决定性因素是周四凌晨的消息，这个消息出来后所形成的价格形态，将会指引我们周尾的布局。决战性一刻时机要到了！


　　再来说说短线技术面：在小时线图上，昨天亚盘的形态是完好下跌形态，如果没有后面的K线，我们会认为他就是要向下运行，最基本的理解是1492不是底部，而价格在午间硬生生拉回到1498附近，这个硬拉的动作，我们给其定义为1490的区间下沿支撑十分强大，那么今天亚欧的区间就给出来了，1492-1508 ，我相信消息面以前是不会破1490的，1508这个位置是决定欧美盘震荡方向的点，但日内站上1508的机会不是很大！我们今天先按照这个区域进行高估低渣！


　　重点关注策略：经过目前的盘面小双底1493区域，若晚间下破1493并且连续性承压于1500整数关下方的话，则后期黄金将有可能走一个空头的延续，再者就是，在前期的上升趋势未破坏之前，区间性不断的洗盘和多头的回撤修正是否已经结束？如果没有，那么后期黄金的上行步伐并未停止，更多的是在洗盘之后的继续上行!所以日内盘中回撤1493可多，上方1506/08空即可，进场目标看5-8个点即可，重点关注一下明日凌晨消息面的突袭，届时笔者也会在盘中给出策略。以上是日内大致做单策略，具体点位笔者会在盘中布局！


　　黄金晚间策略布局：


　　1Suggest a rebound in gold1506/08Empty order entry, stop loss1511Look at the target first1498/96一线即可！（个人建议，做单已实盘为准。）


　　2、建议黄金回撤1493/91Multiple orders entering, stop loss1486, look at the goal1500/1503区域即可！

　　消息面上看当前受到贸亿情绪的缓和以及全球经济放缓情绪的改善，使得市场对crude oil的需求又再度乐观。同时，周末的袭击事件也影响到了原油供给问题，对油价起到了一定的支撑，而美方的通膨相对稳定，也很难让油价走出大幅的单边上涨。目前，原油相对震荡，国际上的事件以及原油库存数据只能短暂的对油价产生影响，并不能给油价带来趋势性的变化。那么油价可能在双顶57.40-55.30这个区域内运行，今晚EIA恐怕也难破此区间，强调一下先勿要追多，具体进场可关注笔者实时策略！


　　技术面上原油昨日碎阳式上涨，最高到达了56.6一线。在面对前高加速下跌位置的时候涨的很慢，一个小型的连阳，并不算是特别的强势，当然，短期看涨的观点还是不变，只是取决于进场的位置罢了。渊哲对于多头的期待还是较大的，小幅上涨的行情中要找好位置，一击必发！而上方57.4这个位置需要慎重对待，越靠近这个位置越要思考的多，逼近前高阻力，多空这个时候都有机会。


　　重点关注策略:鉴于目前日线MACDThe moving average is at the bottom-0.69The axis position forms a golden cross parallel to the upward direction, and the red energy column continues to increase in volume,KDJExploring on the moving average80Axis positionJ线受阻回落，短期来看油价会有一波小幅度的回落修正价位，但由于凌晨APIIt is also difficult for crude oil to decline due to bullish sentiment, and currently the focus is on the eveningEIA公布数据情况。综合来看，今日操作思路上渊哲个人建议以回调做多为主，上方反弹57.2-57.4久盘不破开空，下方回撤55.3-55.5一线支撑果断多即可。不求单单盈利，只为认准趋势精准入场，方能在此市场如鱼得水！具体做单点位上行情实时变化一切以实盘为主！


　　原油晚间策略布局：


　　1、建议原油回撤55.30Multiple orders entering, stop loss54.8，短线目标看56.80/57.2区域即可！（个人建议，做单已实盘为准。）


　　2、建议原油反弹57.20/40受阻开空进场，止损57.70, look at the goal56.30即可！（数据后强势突破，放弃本策略！）


Before the market situation emerges, everyone is predicting, and no one has an accurate answer. Whether it is technology or fundamentals, they are only assisting us in judging and increasing the probability. Regardless of the market situation and time, there will be different perspectives and directions in the market. So, how to have a unique prediction direction can we make the account funds increase with high success rate. Undoubtedly, it is a stable operating method, Stability has always been the pursuit of Yuan Zhe. As the saying goes, it is better to miss than to make mistakes. Choosing a good entry point is better than rushing in. The quality of the entry point determines the profit and loss of this order. A good position is one that can be attacked and defended, while a bad position is a dilemma that requires time. Of course, there is no lack of time verification, and the exchange of spatial profits is still the same as the saying, only by keeping in mind can we always be able to achieve it. Destiny does not refuse, fate does not stay, meeting and becoming friends in the vast sea of people is also a kind of fate. May your initiative exchange for satisfactory profits in the future, and you will definitely live up to your expectations!


　　以上出自分析师：王渊哲（公众号：KDJ1335，官微：kz1338）