MBG Markets：英意混乱政局延续，市场交投情绪谨慎

　　
市场期待美联储更多作为，美元指数终结5连阳(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达34Points, closing down0.2%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线趋于上行；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the positive column is relatively small, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to59-60一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注前高99.00整数关口，下方支撑关注布林中轨98.30Near.
　　
Fundamentals:美银美林近期报告指出，2Y10Y美债收益率曲线倒挂，令机构恐慌美国经济即将步入衰退；市场资金持续从股市流向债市、市场专家及基金经理观点调查、部分FOMC委员的展望等信息，均表露对美国经济走软的担忧。近期市场受避险情绪影响颇多，有相当部分投机者期待美联储有更多作为。昨日，美国总统特朗普和“新债王”冈拉克发表言论，认为美联储应对收益率曲线的倒挂负责。特朗普甚至表示美联储应该更大幅度地降息，至少应当降息100Base point.
　　
意大利执政联盟瓦解，市场做空欧元情绪高涨(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar41Individual points, closing up0.14%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5稍趋走平，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to40-41Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1.1130一线，下方支撑建议关注1.1060。
　　
Fundamentals:昨日，意大利总理孔特在演讲中宣布，当前政府的行为在此终止，他将在参议院就不信任动议进行辩论后将向总统提出辞职。据政府声明，意大利总统马塔雷拉将于周三开始与党派之间磋商，寻求走出政府危机的方法。当前联合政府的成员之一五星运动党（孔特所在党派）可能会与民主党组成联合政府；或者是在10月份重新进行大选。据摩根士丹利报告，美国的ETF资金连续第二周做空EUR，环球宏观基金大幅削减EUR多仓后转而做空；交易员情绪指标进一步看空EUR，EUR是当前唯一被交易员极度看空的G10货币。
　　
脱欧仍陷迷雾，英镑低位抵抗(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The GBP/USD experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day115Individual points, closing up0.28%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)三轨收口明显，暗示汇价很可能盘整后再度选择运行方向；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大，DIFF、DEA双线自0轴下方历史性低位持续抬升；日线RSI(14)to45-46一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力参考下图所示AB段23.6%Callback bit1.2200, lower support1.2060Location.
　　
Fundamentals:欧盟及爱尔兰一致表示，英国首相约翰逊给欧洲理事会主席图斯克的信令人感到失望，信中并没有提供可防止爱尔兰重回硬边界的合法解决方案。约翰逊发言称，欧盟很明显仍认为议会可能阻止脱欧，欧盟对议会抱有希望，他们就不会行动（开启谈判）。荷兰国际银行分析认为，尽管近期英镑下跌有所缓解，看跌英镑的押注也有所减少，但本周约翰逊与欧盟官员会晤的任何负面消息都可能令英镑下跌；因此，英镑的任何走高都将是短暂的。
　　
　　
　　
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