Li Dingyuan:8.20黄金冲高回落还能多吗？午夜金价走势分析及操作建议

　　缘来不拒，缘走不留，茫茫人海相识成为朋友也是一种缘分。素不相识的投资朋友只因看了我的文章信任我，所以每位找到我的投资朋友我都会给予最大的帮助，让这份信任变的更有价值。在市场经济中，只要你参与进来，就是经济人了，经济人当然就以盈利为目的，特别在资本市场中，没有慈善家，只有赢家和输家！无论你在其他方面如何成功，到了市场里，赢输就是唯一标准。如果你的投资之路并不顺利，你有需要我都在

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　　美股上周五反弹，美国国债收益率也从多年低位反弹，市场避险情绪有所降温，gold从高位回落。但不利因素仍然存在，上周2Year and10年期美债收益率曲线出现2007年来首次倒挂，被视为响起经济衰退警号，市场开始期待美联储及各国央行推出更多刺激措施。本周有一个关键的时间点——杰克逊霍尔央行峰会，它素有政策拐点“晴雨表”之称，投资者将密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔在会议上的讲话。如果市场动荡继续下去，美联储主席鲍威尔可能将利用美联储在杰克逊霍尔召开的研讨会，阐明美联储是正处于一个严重降息周期的开端，还是只是打算降息几次，以防范可能出现的经济低迷。鲍威尔将在当地时间本周五早上发表讲话，拉开美联储在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开的年度央行研讨会的序幕。此次会议是未来一周市场的主要焦点。

　　

　　李鼎缘个人观点：在结束了动荡的一周后，本周市场将迎来更大的挑战。周一(8month19day)亚市早盘，美元继续高位持稳，现货黄金则继续承压回落，一度跌破关键的1510关口。两年期美国公债对利率变化非常敏感，它与10年期公债之间的收益率之差向来是市场参与者的关注焦点，其中许多人可能不交易期限更短的国库券。该利差是一项可靠的指标，可预警一到两年后可能出现的经济衰退。鼎，缘认为，在经历了本周的风暴之后，投资者的避险情绪自然开始回归市场，这可能意味着金价将出现整固。随着市场走势更多地与我们的观点一致，鼎缘认为黄金价格存在一些下行趋势，未来几个月很可能回落至1500Below USD.

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Gold Market Analysis

　　

　　此前8month1日特蓝普宣布将于9month1日宣布对中国3000Billion dollar commodity collection10%关税。但上周特朗蓝政府又宣布推迟征税：美国冒易代表办公室8month13日表示，特蓝普将推迟原定于下月开始对包括笔记本电脑和手机在内的某些中国产品征收10%的关税。接下来需持续关注国际冒易局势进展，若出现进一步的积极消息，则黄金恐遭更猛烈打压。本周杰克逊霍尔央行年会受到高度关注，美联储主席鲍威尔将在央行年会上发表讲话，预计这一事件将点燃本周全球市场行情。

　　

　　市场风险偏好情绪回暖，亚洲股市多数收涨，欧洲股市开盘全线大涨，风险情绪的升温无疑打压金价。此外，全球债市收益率上扬，也削弱避险需求：美国30年期国债收益率日内涨7Bps to2.07%，进一步远离近期所创下的纪录低点。德国30年期国债收益率涨至-0.15%Intraday increase7个基点。技术面看，金价展开震荡回撤之势，日图MACD红色动能柱大幅缩窄，KDJ随机指标走低，指示金价上涨动能大幅削弱，接下来或自高位继续回撤。4小时图上看，金价也维持承压下行，MACDThe green kinetic energy column remains stable,KDJ随机指标转而温和走低，指示金价短线可能继续承压走低。综合来看，操作思路上李鼎缘个人建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方重点关注1520-1525Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1495-1490Frontline support.

　　

Suggestions for Gold Operations:

　　

　　1Suggestions1520Stop loss without breaking short1525, Objective1515-1510；

　　

　　2Suggestions1495Do not break long, stop loss1490, Objective1500-1505；

　　

The above views only represent Dingyuan's personal views. If you feel that Li Dingyuan's views are helpful to you, you can try adding Li Dingyuan//Line“ldy86588”Every day, there will be timely analysis of the gold strategy, as well as real-time guidance and one-on-one consulting services, dedicated to answering every investment challenge you face.

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How to invest in gold steadily:

　　

The ups and downs of the market sometimes have traces to follow, and sometimes they are unfounded. The standard for deciding whether to participate in the market is whether to find sufficient reasons to persuade oneself through one's own trading system, and these reasons are the necessary adjustments in the trading system to determine a complete set of transactions-Position holding-adjustment-defense-The goal "is indispensable, and blind rampage will only make one's trading disorderly, and everyone can accept unclear profits. However, only traders who can summarize clear losses can go further! Investment is a balanced art. Only by understanding trade-offs and trade-offs can one be considered mature and not burdened by stubbornness. Investors who are still confused about it should not worry.

　　

If you can find me, I can help you:

　　

When the market is in a strong uptrend and sometimes rapidly falling, you cannot control the direction of the market. The only thing we can do is to keep the principal. When the market is uncertain, we can take our positions out of the market and wait and see. There is no need to waste our energy on unclear actions. Is the market up or down? The most important thing to worry about is what measures you will take to respond to market changes, how much profit you can make when you are right, and how much you can avoid when you are wrong. I hope Li Dingyuan's article can bring you small gains.

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　　鼎缘寄语：

　　

There is nothing impossible, only people who don't want to do it. If you are indifferent to your current loss situation, it can only prove that you are avoiding it. If you are not willing to lose, please learn to change. If you are not willing to change, it means that you are not hurt enough. If you believe in me, you can find me, and I will do my best to help you. An analyst who is willing to work with you in the same boat.

　　

Full guidance time: early7：00In the early morning of the next day2：00(Never stopping on weekends, available for consultation at any time))

　　

Comprehensive guidance teacher: Li Dingyuan Analysis Team

　　

Analysis writer: Li Dingyuan  Wei-Core（ ldy86588） Official account (Li Dingyuan)

　　

Author's Message: If life is only like first sight, meeting and gathering is fate!