刘煜贤：“降息”全面解读，黄金顶住压力还能上涨吗？

　　本周全球金融市场波诡云谲，投资者情绪一惊一乍，伴随gold高位振荡。尽管全球局势越趋复杂支持着黄金的避险需求，但是美元的强势回归令黄金上行受限。
　　
　　本周经济数据向好提振美元走强，尽管市场坚持认为美联储下月将再次降息标价因素方面本周持续给黄金带来压力，因为美元在向好数据提振下持续走强。本周二公布的数据显示，美国7monthCPI年率和核心CPI年率别分录得1.8%and2.2%, higher than expected1.7%and2.1%。而周四的7Monthly retail sales rate recorded0.7%，核心月率达到1.0%，也都明显高于预期值。两项硬数据都指示美元经济向好，特别是经济主引擎消费较为强劲。
　　
　　不过无论经济数据好坏，市场却雷打不动的预期美联储将在9月份会议上再次降息。目前数据显示，美联储9月降息几率达到100%，其中降息25The probability of one basis point is76%Interest rate reduction50The probability of one basis point is24%。
　　
　　继续降息的预期没有妨碍美元走强，一方面这种预期已经形成一段时间市场进行了充分定价，另一方面就是相对于其他主要发达国家美国利率仍然处于高企水平，即使再次降息25个基点也能保持相对优势。
　　
　　技术上，黄金本周大幅振荡，不过目前站稳1500Gateway and2015年末以来上行通道上轨1505，使得前景继续看涨。若持稳1500-1505区域上行，黄金或测试关键阻力1530区域，一旦实现有效突破料将打开更大上涨空间。当然，也应该注意到1530一线阻力强劲，如果回落跌破1500，则应关注进一步下行风险，短期下方支持关注1490as well as1480Etc.
　　
　　市场涨跌两重天，交易成败在细节，细节的支撑点是在与内在心境的把控，行情可以乱，但是内心不能乱！
　　
　　我以为在行情力度上破位1500有一波加速向下概率很大，至少从当前美元的上升趋势来讲对黄金是一道压力。而当前的黄金指标走势图之中，4小时指标震荡向下，加上日K钝化，因此黄金有理由去形成一个震荡向下的走势！
　　
Short term operation, refer to the following:
　　
　　1，下周一黄金1516Short selling nearby, looking at the target1500Nearby. Dislocation1505可能会加速下跌，下方支撑看1495。
　　
　　中线大区间来说，一般在1480-1530between50Go back and forth, everyone remember not to forget9The monthly interest rate cut is certain, so the backtesting of the declining gold base is based on1535to1380of0.382stay1476Frontline, lowest probing1480Basically completed, but looking at the future in a larger range1480-1530Between operations, the monthly line should not be too low9月降息！这样大家操作上有方向的定向运动！望大家在投资路上不会迷茫！
　　
WeChat announced the current price list in advance,17Investors who have lost tens of thousands of dollars are on the road to recoup their losses!
　　
After passing through17After a loss of ten thousand US dollars, Mr. Li did not lose confidence in the market, but chose to believe in Liu Yuxian and invest in gold2.1Ten thousand dollars to keep up with the operation, making a profit in less than a week2.3Ten thousand US dollars, choose to withdraw the principal first for capital turnover. Leaving profits and continuing to operate may raise doubts. It's impossible to double in a week, but the fact is that out of ten orders, five were announced by Liu Yuxian in advance on WeChat. We have a track record of every order we operate, and we are not just talking nonsense! We publish the current price list every day. Friends in need can follow us.
　　
My daily analysis of thoughts is all on WeChat, and I publish transactions in real-time on Pengyouquan. I'm not afraid of you asking questions or not being able to find directions. Join us to searchV：lyx201037663
　　
As for some people who may say, "How long can I hold on to a deep set of orders in my hand?" Therefore, it is necessary to judge based on your position report. In response to this situation, five or six investors have contacted the topic that I am most concerned about. At that time, I will also provide the most timely countermeasures based on real-time market trends.
　　
Liu Yuxian
　　
　　8.17(Writing))