United StatesWTIcrude oil9monthfuturesFriday(8month9day)Income increase1.96USD, or3.7%Report54.50dollar/桶,本周跌幅为2.1%. Brent crude oil10Monthly futures closed higher on Friday1.15USD, or2%Report58.53dollar/桶,本周大跌5.4%。贸易紧张局势成为油价反弹的最大拦路虎,虽然沙特等国可能会采取行动支撑油价,但需求面威胁加大令油价本周没能收复失地。美国WTICrude oil futures prices hit their lowest point during trading52.37dollar/Barrel, Brent crude oil futures hit their lowest point in the session57.11dollar/桶。美国石油活跃钻井数7月累计减少了17Seat3月来最大降幅。连续八个月录得减少创2016year5月以来最长月线连降周期,当时曾连续九个月录得减少。6Monthly decrease7座,而5Monthly decrease5座。因美国油企开始减少新钻井的建造,从而将注意力转向盈利增长而非产量增长。
Technically speaking, the daily chartMACD依然死叉,后市下行风险仍存,初步支撑仍在6month18Daily low point51.60Nearby, then6Monthly low point50.60附近支撑;需要跌破该位置,才能打开进一步下行空间。不过,KDJ初步结成金叉,油价短线偏向继续反弹,上方初步阻力在60.94以来跌势的38.2%Retreat position54.56附近,莫千机认为若能收复该位置,则增加短线反弹信号。较强的阻力在20Daily moving average55.78Nearby, also50%回撤位阻力所在。短线4hourMACDGolden fork,KDJ金叉,油价初步企稳于布林线中轨上方,上方通道得以打开,上方初步阻力在日内高点54.8Nearby,10Daily moving average resistance55.3附近,若突破该位置则增加中线看涨信号;同时考虑油价在低位触底反弹底部支撑而出刺探的概率