MBG Markets：初请数据助推美指走高，风险情绪好转金价仍坚挺

　　
初请数据意外走强，美指录得三日连阳(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达35Individual points, closing up0.08%，连续第三日收阳。日线BOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价隔夜一度跌穿中轨后反弹，收于中轨上方；日线MA5,10构死叉，MA5Tending towards a downward trend; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to51-52一线运行，险守荣枯线50上方。汇价连续下测后收阳，多头险守布林中轨位置，建议短线以布林中轨为多空分水岭。上方阻力关注98.15，下方支撑关注布林中轨。
　　
Fundamentals:From the United States to8month3Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week20.9万人，优于市场预期及前值。数据暗示尽管经济增速放缓，美国劳动力市场仍维持强劲。初请数据发布后，美国十年期国债收益率小幅上扬。当前美国国债市场对美国经济数据意外的敏感度接近2007Annual level.CME美联储观察工具和WIRP全球利率工具均显示，市场预计美联储9月再次降息25The probability of a basis point is100%Interest rate reduction50个基点的概率约为三分之一，年内再降息两次的概率为60%。数据分析表明，自从2006年以来，联邦利率市场对美联储下一场利率决议的预期几乎没有出过错。
　　
约翰逊筹划大选，英镑卖压沉重(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达88Individual points, closing up0.02%，持续于低位运行。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5稍趋走平，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOnline threadingDEA构金叉，阳柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to29-30Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1.2210，下方支撑关注下图所示ABC段100%斐波那契拓展线位置1.2115。
　　
Fundamentals:据英国金融时报：英国首相约翰逊将在脱欧后数日内进行大选。道明证券称，英国首相约翰逊将在脱欧结束并面临不信任投票后举行大选，这进一步加大了围绕脱欧的不确定性，促使投资者卖出英镑。英国外交大臣拉布：英国政府倾向于有协议脱欧；但如果欧盟没有进展或者没有展示出灵活性，英国也将离开欧盟，之后遵守世贸组织条款。高盛报告认为，目前英国仍有45％几率和欧盟达成脱欧协议，但无协议脱欧的概率在近期有所上升，从15％升至20％。英国现今的局面充满不确定性。
　　
风险情绪有所好转，金价仍处高位运行(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:gold隔夜震幅达195Individual points, closing up0.17%, continuous6个交易日收阳。日线BOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，金价持续于布林上轨上方极端超买位置运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，金价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to75-76一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。
　　
Fundamentals:得益于亮眼财报及部分科技公司利好信息，美股隔夜全线上涨，标普500一举收复周内全部跌幅，风险情绪大大好转。全球最大的黄金ETFFund: United StatesSPDR Gold Trustto8month9Daily reduction of holdings5.57吨黄金，为连续5度增持后的首度减持。世界黄金协会（WGC）最新报告显示，市场不确定性加剧正以前所未有的速度推动投资者买入黄金交易所交易产品，7月份黄金持有量升至6年来的高点；全球黄金ETF及类似产品上月净流入26亿美元，持有量增加52Tons, to2600Tons, for2013year3The highest level since the beginning of the month.
　　
　　
　　
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